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PROVO — BYU completed a perfect nonconference slate by defeating old Mountain West rival Wyoming — up in Laramie — 34-14 Saturday night.
The Cougars dominated in all three phases of the game as they doubled Wyoming in yardage, returned a kickoff 100-plus yards, and never trailed.
After throwing an interception at the goal line in the first quarter, quarterback Jake Retzlaff rebounded and played well, tossing three touchdowns, passing for 291 yards and leading the team on the ground with 62 rushing yards.
Retzlaff's ability to extend plays from the pocket has translated into explosive plays and longer drives.
Meanwhile, Jay Hill's defense continues to impress as they have now stacked three straight games holding their opponent under 300 yards of offense. This is BYU's first such streak since the 2019 season, and they seem to be hitting a second-year coordinator bonus at each level of the unit.
After two road wins, BYU returns home to Provo to kickoff their second Big 12 season by hosting No. 13 Kansas State under the lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium (8:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Kansas State 64.4 (11th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Kansas State 69.6 (13th)
2024 preseason: BYU 63rd | Kansas State 17th
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and again to No. 50 in 2022.
Last season during the Big 12 transition year, BYU fell all the way to the bottom 10 of Power Four.
Kansas State went 9-4 last year and actually had the highest ranking in 2023 Game Grader among the new 16 Big 12 teams. This year, they are off to a 3-0 start after surviving a road test at Tulane and then flexing with a 31-7 win over then-ranked Arizona last Friday night.
The 2024 Game Grader rankings will be released after week 4, but BYU is exceeding expectations so far with the 3-0 start and road wins at SMU and Wyoming.
Kansas State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Kansas State offense (2024): 2nd of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 3rd rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 8th of 16 Big 12 (5th passing, 10th rushing)
Kansas State found a program star at quarterback last year when true freshman Avery Johnson came into the game and proceeded to run for five touchdowns in the win over Texas Tech. Johnson may be the reason that three-year starter Will Howard hit the portal.
Johnson has been stellar so far, completing 64% of passes and leading the No. 2 offense in the Big 12 per my advanced stats. The best part of his game is his elusiveness and straight-line foot speed.
He is a serious threat in the zone read game and defenses must honor his rushing ability. Then, in the pass game, his speed on scrambles breaks defenses.
This is a tough matchup for BYU specifically, as their so-called Achilles' Heel — from an otherwise perfect defensive start to the season — has been mobile quarterbacks.
In each of their three games, BYU's opposing quarterbacks have had success on the ground, and Johnson is one of the best dual-threats in America.
I have watched all three of Kansas State's games and have been impressed with this offense. Aside from Johnson, their pair of running backs provides a "thunder and lightning" between DJ Giddens and Colorado-transfer Dylan Edwards. The tight ends are heavily involved in the pass game and create mismatches.
Lastly, the offensive line is replacing four starters from last year's unit and is only allowing one sack per game. This will be the best offense BYU has faced by far.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (13th passing, 10th rushing)
Kansas State defense (2024): 11th of 16 Big 12 (11th passing, 4th rushing)
Retzlaff continues to improve, and is an asset at quarterback for BYU. He has extended plays from the pocket and is not afraid to be a gunslinger. With that comes some turnovers, but he also brings the ability to unlock the talent of a deep receiver and tight end room.
Three different targets caught touchdowns Saturday: Keanu Hill, Darius Lassiter, and Kody Epps.
An area of concern is the growing injury issue at running back where BYU announced that its top two backs — LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati — are "questionable" for Saturday night. A third back, Enoch Nawahine, was also out of the lineup but is expected back this week.
Given Kansas State's strength against the run, and BYU's injuries there, it may signal a pass-heavy approach for the Cougars.
In the Tulane game, Kansas State brought a ton of pressure and blitz packages; and in the early part of the game, Tulane's line held up enough to beat the blitzes for touchdowns. But as the game wore on, Kansas State broke through and eventually caused a sack- fumble that was returned for the game-winning touchdown.
BYU's offensive line must hold on long enough for Retzlaff to avoid chaos.
Game prediction
While BYU has shifted expectations in the positive direction after a 3-0 start and road wins at SMU and Wyoming, Kansas State is still one of my picks to make the Big 12 title game.
To kickoff BYU's second Big 12 season, this is a measuring stick game to see how much progress Kalani Sitake's program has made compared to 2023. Even with a loss Saturday night, BYU is still projected for bowl season in 2024.
Kansas State 27 | BYU 14
