Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah overcame a slow start to defeat "Battle of the Brothers" rival Utah State for the 15th time in 16 games, by a score of 38-21 in Logan Saturday.
True freshman Isaac Wilson's first start saw a rough opening quarter, where the Utes fell behind 14-3, but from there the young signal-caller tossed three touchdowns and helped finish off a perfect nonconference slate.
The stakes are even bigger this Saturday.
Utah travels to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to make its long-awaited Big 12 debut, facing one of the league's most consistent programs over the past two decades.
This is a matchup of undefeated teams, top-15 ranked teams, and two of the top three preseason contenders to make it to the Big 12 title game.
The two head coaches — Utah's Kyle Whittingham and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy — are tied for the second-longest tenures in FBS behind only Iowa's Kirk Ferentz. These icons have built consistent winners and have been especially elite on one side of the ball with Utah's defense and Oklahoma State's offense placing among the national leaders most years.
This should end up as one of the games of the season within the Big 12 race (2 p.m. MDT, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Oklahoma State 59.8 (17th)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Oklahoma State 56.3 (26th)
2024 preseason: Utah 8th | Oklahoma State 21st
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After consecutive top-10 finishes, Utah slid to 35th (of 70 Power Four programs) last year.
As Utah fans are well aware, their 2023 struggles were a result of losing 157 combined starts to injury from the two-deep. In all my years covering college football, it was the most injured team I can recall.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked Oklahoma State to finish third. So far, Utah is one of just 10 FBS teams to open 3-0 and win all three games by double digits.
Oklahoma State needed a big fourth-quarter rally — and double overtime — to fend off Arkansas, and then flexed on in-state Tulsa last week with a 45-10 win.
The 2024 Game Grader is set to release following the Week 4 games, but both programs remain at my preseason expectation.
Oklahoma State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Oklahoma State offense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (9th passing, 13th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (5th passing, 3rd rushing)
Ollie Gordon was the national rushing champion last year with 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns, and was expected to be a Heisman candidate here in 2024. His sequel has not lived up to the hype, as he is just 10th in the Big 12 in rushing yards — 30th in per-carry average — and Oklahoma State has gone back to being pass-heavy.
Gundy's offense features a veteran, seventh-year quarterback in Alan Bowman, an offensive line packed with potential All-Big 12 performers, and one of the nation's best receiver duos.
Brennan Presley is the productive slot receiver who they use on reverses and fly sweeps, where he ran for a touchdown against Arkansas. De'Zhaun Stribling is their true No. 1 threat on the outsides, and he continues to hit on vertical shots downfield.
It will be strength on strength here, as Utah brings one of the nation's best defenses to Stillwater. The Utah pass rush has already notched 11 sacks — good for sixth nationally — while Oklahoma State's offensive line is one of just three Power Four lines that has not allowed a single sack in 2024.
Bowman lacks mobility in the pocket, and I will give Utah the edge at the line of scrimmage here. One concern for Utah's defense was how frequently Utah State connected on deep shots last week.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 12th of 16 Big 12 (3rd passing, 11th rushing)
Oklahoma State defense (2024): 5th of 16 Big 12 (6th passing, 3rd rushing)
In the second game of the season, a Baylor defender threw Cam Rising into the water coolers where he jammed two fingers. Rising sat out the Utah State game and is projected to play this Saturday; however, the weekly injury circus has a 2023 feel to it still.
Receiver Dorian Singer said Rising will be ready, and Whittingham said "we sure hope so; that would be ideal."
Wilson is quickly getting up to speed with the college game and is clearly the quarterback of the future for Utah's program, but this offense and team needs Rising at the helm this year. Assuming he does play, the offense hopes to get back to how it looked against Southern Utah and in the first half of the Baylor game before the injury.
Micah Bernard is taking the bulk of carries at running back, tight end Brant Kuithe continues to contribute both in the pass and run game, converted basketball player Caleb Lohner is a jump ball ace, and Singer is a star wide receiver.
One concern so far is Utah's inconsistency in the run game, and the offensive line being spotty at times there.
We will learn Saturday if Oklahoma State's defensive gains from 2023 are real or not. Last year, this unit struggled in all facets and finished in the bottom 10 of my opponent-adjusted defensive rankings, but so far they are up in the national top half.
They did allow former Utes running back Ja'Quinden Jackson (Arkansas) to run for three touchdowns, and now their top defender Collin Oliver is out.
Game prediction
Utah draws a tough welcome gift to the Big 12 with a road trip to one of the league's toughest environments. With Rising back under center, this is the best team in the Big 12, and Utah should win both lines of scrimmage.
Utah kicks off their new era with a statement victory against a legacy Big 12 brand.
Utah 31 | Oklahoma State 20
