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PROVO — BYU went into Dallas as major underdogs but left as victors, snapping SMU's nine-game home winning streak with a physical 18-15 win Friday night.
I was in attendance and was impressed by how many royal blue-clad BYU fans made the trip — it was almost a 50/50 fan split.
I was also impressed by the BYU defense, their aggressive pass rush, their timely red zone defense, and by quarterback Jake Retzlaff's ability to extend plays with his legs and give his team a shot to win.
With 12 minutes left, SMU's running back attempted to lateral the ball at the 5-yard line, and BYU recovered, stalling yet another SMU red zone trip. Later, with six minutes left, in a tied 15-15 game, Retzlaff led a touchdown drive that included a fourth-and-1 speed option conversion. Miles Davis took the pitch 40 yards down the far sideline to help secure the game-winning field goal.
BYU is 2-0 to start the season for the fifth straight year, and extends their all-time series lead on SMU to 5-0. Before Big 12 play heats up, they round out the nonconference slate with a road trip to former conference-mate Wyoming (7 p.m. MDT, CBSSN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Wyoming 27th of 63 Non-AQ
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Wyoming 21st of 63 Non-AQ
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021, and again to No. 50 in 2022. Last season during the Big 12 transition year, BYU fell all the way to the bottom 10 of Power Four.
Wyoming went 9-4 last year and sent longtime head coach Craig Bohl out as a winner. They rated No. 21 among the non-AQ schools in 2023 Game Grader, and even knocked off Power Four Texas Tech in the opener in Laramie.
So far, Wyoming is 0-2 with a blowout loss to Arizona State (48-7) and a loss to FCS Idaho (17-13).
The 2024 Game Grader rankings will be released after Week 3, but BYU is exceeding expectations so far with a 2-0 start and road win over SMU.
Wyoming with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Wyoming offense (2023): 39th of 63 Non-AQ
BYU defense (2023): 48th of 70 Power Four
Wyoming is off to arguably the worst offensive start in the FBS. They are second-worst in QB Rating and are averaging just 10 points per game so far.
It started poorly and has stayed that way, as quarterback Evan Svoboda threw a pick six in the first minute of the season, threw another pick four minutes later, and then had a bad lateral returned for another touchdown. He is completing just 41% of passes; and to make matters worse, Wyoming is still without their star running back Harrison Waylee.
BYU registered three sacks and eight tackles for loss against SMU, and are now ranked in the national top 40 in both categories. This was the goal for Jay Hill's second defense: turn up the pressure in the backfield after consecutive seasons ranking dead last in my Negative Play rate.
BYU is also ranked No. 7 nationally in pass defense and should be able to smother a broken Wyoming offense. This side of the ball is a clear advantage for the road Cougars.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2023): 69th of 70 Power Four
Wyoming defense (2023): 10th of 63 Non-AQ
Retzlaff emerged from the offseason quarterback battle and shined in the opener, completing 20-of-30 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns. In the SMU game, he flashed his mobility by extending pass plays, scrambling for extra yardage, and effectively running the speed option.
The running back stable showed off their physicality, tight end Mata'ava Ta'ase caught a touchdown pass up the seam, and Darius Lassiter reeled off a 57-yard explosive play in which he carried several SMU defenders down the field.
BYU, again, rushed for 3.8 yards per carry. But look for an improved number Saturday as Wyoming's defense is ranked just 86th against the run. Wyoming was routed 48-7 by an Arizona State team with similar preseason expectations to BYU within the expanded Big 12.
The key mismatch here is in the pass game, as Wyoming is in the national bottom 10 in opponent QB Rating, and I expect Retzlaff to have success through the air like he did in the season opener.
BYU's strongest unit is its deep receiver corps, and it should account for several explosive plays Saturday.
Game prediction
BYU impressed as road underdogs at SMU, and their win has shifted expectations for 2024. BYU's strengths of throwing the ball and defending the pass both align with Wyoming's weaknesses in the same areas.
Yes, Laramie is a tough place to play, and Wyoming was able to shock Power Four foes like Missouri (2019) and Texas Tech (2023), but BYU has the clear advantage over the Cowboys here.
BYU 31 | Wyoming 14
