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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah defeated new conference-mate Baylor 23-12 Saturday in Rice-Eccles Stadium, but due to the home-and-home series being scheduled before the league change, the game actually does not count for Big 12 conference standings.
The bigger storyline occurred off the field — off the far sideline to be specific — as quarterback Cam Rising was thrown into the water coolers and injured his throwing hand.
Rising, of course, missed all of the 2023 season as he rehabbed from an injury in the prior Rose Bowl, and his health status became the weekly storyline all year. Fresh off of a career day in the opening win over Southern Utah, Rising helped Utah build a 23-0 lead over Baylor before his second-quarter injury.
This is deja vu for Utah fans after suffering through the worst injury season I have ever covered.
On Thursday, reports mentioned that Rising is unlikely to play this week, but that it was a finger injury and he is expected to return for their Big 12 opener.
Before league play starts, Utah travels to Logan to face rival Utah State in the "Battle of the Brothers" game. These two played annually from 1944-09, but have only played three times since Utah's departure to the Pac-12.
While Utah has won 14 of the last 15 matchups, the one loss occurred in Logan, where they head Saturday (2:30 p.m. MDT, CBSSN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Utah State (25th of 63 Non-AQ)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Utah State (33rd of 63 Non-AQ)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After consecutive top-10 finishes, Utah slid to 35th (of 70 Power Four programs) last year. As Utah fans are well aware, their 2023 struggles were a result of losing 157 combined starts to injury from the two-deep.
The 2024 Game Grader rankings will be released following Week 3, and so far Utah has lived up to their preseason top-10 expectations. They shutout Southern Utah 49-0 and then jumped to a 23-0 lead over Baylor before going with a safe game plan with the backup quarterback in the second half.
Utah State was projected as the No. 7 Mountain West team in the preseason and is 1-1 after losing 48-0 to USC.
Utah State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah State offense (2023): 20th of 63 Non AQ
Utah defense (2023): 19th of 70 Power Four
Utah State has two familiar quarterbacks to the Power Four landscape. Bryson Barnes was the starter at times last year for Utah, and even led some heroic drives and wins, including the 2023 USC win.
Spencer Petras was at the helm of Iowa's historically weak offense the past two seasons. He was named the starter at Utah State but is rehabbing from a Week 1 injury. Barnes started last week against USC.
Regardless of who is under center, the main offensive strategy is to get the ball to star receiver Jalen Royals, who posted a 1,000-yard season in 2023 and is getting the bulk of targets again in 2024.
Utah has the clear advantage in this unit matchup, as their defense is playing phenomenal football so far. They held Baylor to just 223 yards, and just 2.4 yards per play in the first half. The pass rush has been relentless — Connor O'Toole forced a fumble and the unit combined for eight tackles for loss.
Utah already has eight sacks, which is good for No. 6 nationally. Look for more Utah defensive dominance Saturday.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2023): 65th of 70 Power Four
Utah State defense (2023): 35th of 63 Non-AQ
Rising continued his fast start to 2024 with two more touchdowns (on 8-of-14 passing) in the first half before his injury. True freshman Isaac Wilson (Corner Canyon HS) came in after Rising's injury and will be the starter Saturday.
The game plan got noticeably safer and more conservative after the quarterback switch, but now with a full week of starter reps, the offense should open up a bit more.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham again expressed confidence in Wilson, saying "he's our guy, he just needs to accrue reps."
Veteran Micah Bernard took on the workhorse role and ran for 118 yards on 19 carries and will again be the featured back Saturday.
Last week, USC was able to move the ball at will against Utah State's defense, rolling off 48 points and 250+ yards passing and rushing.
Look for Utah to go with a safe game plan, rely on the run game, and for the offensive line to win the battle for a consistent run push.
Game prediction
The storyline right now is all about Rising's injury, but do not lose sight of how dominant this Utah team has looked so far.
The other 21 starters on the lineup are playing excellent football, and they are more than strong enough to help along a first-time starting quarterback. Utah wins big Saturday to push to 3- 0 heading into league play.
Utah 34 | Utah State 10
