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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah extended its losing streak and was eliminated from Big 12 and playoff contention with their third loss Saturday night to TCU.
Early in the week, the staff announced that quarterback Cam Rising was officially done for the season, which meant true freshman Isaac Wilson was the full-time starter.
There was no progress made at all on offense. Utah had 14 possessions — 11 ended with punts, another was a turnover on downs, another was an interception. They scored 7 points on 14 possessions for one of the worst offensive performances in the entire Kyle Whittingham era.
Utah scored double-digit points in 52 straight games from 2018-23, but have now been held to single-digits four times since last October. With no signs of progress or improvements, longtime offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned the day after the game.
Utah looks to break out of their offensive funk and get back to their winning ways Saturday against Houston, the lowest-rated Big 12 team (5 p.m. MDT, ESPN+).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Houston 48.1 (47th)2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Houston 33.0 (62nd)
2024 season: Utah 50.1 (40th) | Houston 36.5 (62nd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine "Pick Six Previews," I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked Houston to finish dead last. Utah has vastly under-performed against those expectations.
As for Houston, they did manage to notch a Big 12 league victory and enter with the same league record as Utah (1-3). Houston opened up with a loss to non-AQ UNLV, then got shutout in the first two Big 12 games, losing 34-0 to Cincinnati and 20-0 to Iowa State.
Their 30-19 win over TCU was shocking, but helped move them out of the bottom five of Power Four in 2024 Game Grader.
Houston with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Houston offense (2024): 15th of 16 Big 12 (14th passing, 13th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (3rd passing, 8th rushing)
Houston is averaging just 11 points per game vs. Big 12 opponents, which is 129th — dead last — in conference scoring offense in America. Their only bright spot came in the TCU win when they made a change at quarterback by promoting Zeon Chriss to starter.
They reshaped the offensive scheme to emphasize Chriss in the run game, where he rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries and a score. Unfortunately, he was knocked out early in the Kansas game last week, and is questionable for Saturday's game.
Houston head coach Willie Fritz said "I think (Chriss) will be fine" in regards to playing against Utah. If Chriss is unable, Donovan Smith returns under center but the offense has struggled with him.
Houston threw three interceptions to the same player last week, and on the season he has thrown twice as many picks (eight) as touchdowns (four). In my opponent-adjusted offense metric, their ranking varies depending on who is at quarterback.
With Chriss, Houston ranks 25th of 70 Power Four teams; but without him, they fall to 50th.
Houston does get the return of star receiver Stephon Johnson, who will form a one-two punch with Mekhi Mews, the Georgia transfer who shined last week against Kansas.
Utah's defense continues to play exceptional football, despite getting zero help from its offense. They are dealt poor field position and face more drives than other defenses, but still held TCU to just 13 points, which was 23 points below their scoring average.
Look for Utah's pass rush to tee off on a poor pass protection offensive line. Van Filinger is the headliner, but look for the whole front seven to get involved as Houston has allowed 24 sacks already — fifth worst in Power Four.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (16 th Passing, 14 th Rushing)
Houston defense (2024): 6th of 16 Big 12 (14th passing, 6th rushing)
No one could have predicted this. With a star-packed roster and conference title aspirations, instead, Utah's offense fell to dead last in the Big 12 and saw an October coordinator change.
With 14 possessions against TCU, Utah generated just three noteworthy plays: the long-bomb touchdown to Money Parks, a contested sideline catch by Dorian Singer, and the chunk play near halftime to Brant Kuithe. That's it. And that was against one of the lowest-rated defenses in the Big 12.
Houston has performed much stronger on defense than TCU, and has held every opponent below their season averages until their meltdown loss to Kansas last week. If there is any statistical weakness for this defense, it is against the pass; but Wilson and the Utes offense have not shown consistency in the pass game yet.
Game prediction
Utah and Houston are new conference mates, and last played each other in 1978. Their first matchup as Big 12 members will feature two of the bottom-rated offenses trying to muster up yards and points against two of the league's strongest defenses.
Utah's defense and their pass rush against Houston's struggling offensive line is the difference. Plus, Utah has playmakers ready to breakout on offense, if the coordinator change can create a spark.
Utah 17 | Houston 14
