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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah welcomed back starting quarterback Cam Rising last week, but the Utes lost their second straight game, moving their record to 4-2 (1-2 Big 12).
Their Big 12 title hopes and playoff odds were both damaged here with the 27-19 loss Friday night at Arizona State.
The Utah defense contained star running back Cam Skattebo in the first half, but the relentless runner broke through on two long touchdowns — a 50-yarder and a 47-yarder — to decide the game.
After weeks of speculation, Rising returned but was clearly not at 100% health. His hand was gloved from the early September injury, but then in the first quarter he was rolled up on and his leg was injured.
His throws were consistently too short — a symptom of a leg injury — and he ended up with his worst performance as a Utes player. As a result of the injury, Rising is out for the season.
The second loss means Utah must win out to have a shot at a Big 12 title. They face a hot-and-cold TCU (3-3, 1-2 Big 12) Saturday night in Rice-Eccles Stadium (8:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | TCU 53.6 (27th)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | TCU 53.0 (32nd)
2024 season: Utah 52.5 (39th) | TCU 45.7 (50th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked TCU to finish sixth. Both have under-performed against those expectations.
TCU beat Kansas and Stanford, but it's been all negative otherwise. In their Iron Skillet rivalry game, head coach Sonny Dykes was ejected and they lost 66-42. They lost a heartbreaker to UCF in a 35-34 result, then lost to the consensus last-place team in the Big 12 to Houston.
While the offense has been productive from a yardage perspective, turnovers have plagued this team. Their 14 giveaways are second-worst in Power Four.
TCU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
TCU offense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (5th passing, 14th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (6th passing, 10th rushing)
TCU moves the ball just fine and place in the top five of both my Big 12 offense and passing offense metrics. Their problem is turnovers, like the five they gave away against SMU and the four surrendered to Houston.
This variability makes TCU tough to predict.
Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown the second-most touchdowns in the Big 12 (16) but also the third most interceptions (6). Still, that is good enough for the third-highest rating on the conference's QB Rating leaderboard, and this passing attack will be arguably the best Utah has faced so far, right there with Arizona.
Hoover has completed 20-plus passes and 2-plus touchdowns over nine straight games, which is the longest streak in the Big 12 since 2011.
Utah is playing uncharacteristically on defense the past two games. The team missed tackles and sacks against Arizona, and continued that trend Friday night in the second half when they missed several tackles on Skattebo's knockout punch touchdown runs.
Injuries are playing a part, like they did last year, where as many as six of the 11 original starters were missing last game. Top cornerback Kenan Johnson was injured in the opener, and Keanu Tanuvasa, Connor O'Toole, and Karene Reid all missed several games already.
I trust the Utah defensive staff to fix it, but this unit has been trending in the wrong direction.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (16th passing, 12th rushing)
TCU defense (2024): 13th of 16 Big 12 (15th passing, 13th rushing)
Rising finally returned to the field, but it was short-lived. His three-interception game ties his career-worst, and due to injury limitations he missed several wide-open receivers. There were plenty more yards and points to be had, but the team was handcuffed at quarterback.
Utah announced that Rising is done for the season, and that freshman Isaac Wilson is officially promoted to QB1. Wilson has started three games and has taken some growing pains, with more picks than touchdowns and a No. 14 ranking in Big 12 QB Rating.
He has flashed some star potential at times. Maybe now with the Rising injury saga behind them, Utah can re-focus the offense behind Wilson.
Brant Kuithe is a proven star, and the staff continues to use him in the run game. Two more stars have elevated their game, with Micah Bernard posting four 100-yard games and placing in the Power 4 top 10 with 676 yards on the season. Dorian Singer has emerged as a true No. 1 threat on the outside.
Utah draws one of the league's worst defenses — second-worst against the pass, fourth-worst against the run — and face a former Utes player in cornerback JaTravis Broughton. Look for Utah to lean on the run game and own the time of possession, with a similar game plan to the Oklahoma State game.
Game prediction
Utah and TCU are former conference mates in the WAC (1996-98) and Mountain West (2005-10). They both posted undefeated seasons, broke through as "BCS Busters," and eventually earned Power conference bids.
Utah will want to slow down the game, win the line of scrimmage, and go ball control. TCU wants to speed up the game and spread out this injured Utah defense. The end result will be somewhere in the middle, but the home team gets a much-needed victory.
Utah 30 | TCU 24
