Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
PROVO — BYU continued its perfect start to the 2024 season with another Big 12 victory, this time a 38-35 win in the final seconds over Oklahoma State.
It was a back-and-forth contest, with both sides stealing multiple interceptions, and both lead running backs scoring twice. Oklahoma State scored the go-ahead touchdown with just 1:13 left in the game, but BYU roared back.
Jake Retzlaff scrambled for 30 yards and, then on the next play, found Darius Lassiter, who broke two tackles and charged into the end zone. The game-winner was another magical moment on BYU's perfect 7-0 start.
On the television broadcast, it looked like an earthquake erupted in LaVell Edwards Stadium as he crossed the goal line.
BYU stands as one of the final nine undefeated teams in FBS, and one of the few with multiple wins over currently ranked teams. This is their highest Associated Press ranking, and best start, since that 2020 season.
Big 12 play rolls on with a road trip to Orlando to take on a UCF team that is better than their win-loss record would indicate (1:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | UCF 51.7 (34th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | UCF 53.7 (31st)
2024 season: BYU 73.0 (10th) | UCF 47.1 (46th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
UCF made the transition up the Power Five level with BYU last season, and UCF jumped out to lead in almost every game but did not have the depth to hold on for four quarters, finishing with a 6-7 record.
This year, after a school-record transfer haul, I projected UCF as a Big 12 contender. A pair of one-score losses have damaged that prediction, as UCF lost by 6 to Cincinnati and then by 3 last week at Iowa State.
They have fallen below expectation and are currently ranked 46th in 2024 Game Grader.
BYU has shattered all preseason expectations with a perfect 7-0 start, and has climbed all the way to No. 10 in my 2024 Game Grader for their highest spot in this metric since their 2020 team.
UCF with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
UCF offense (2024): 2nd of 16 Big 12 (6th passing, 3rd rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 5th rushing)
UCF signed Arkansas transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson, who was formerly named All-SEC, but shockingly he struggled and was benched after a few games. Jacurri Brown took over the starting spot, but he has been used mostly as a runner.
Brown has more carries than completed passes, more rushing yards than passing yards, and more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns. Even with a one-dimensional quarterback, UCF is still one of the toughest offenses to defend.
UCF has 63 rushes of 10+ yards, and 21 rushes of 20+ yards — both Power Four bests — and RJ Harvey is set to eclipse the 1,000 yard milestone this Saturday.
This is "strength on strength" when UCF has the ball, because BYU's defense is ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in my opponent-adjusted, per-play metric. Not only are they stout from a per-play perspective, but the turnover game has been their key to success.
BYU continues to generate takeaways and set up their offense with favorable field position. They already have 16 takeaways — third best in Power Four — while the UCF offense has given the ball away 12 times (ninth worst in Power Four).
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (8th passing, 4th rushing)
UCF defense (2024): 8th of 16 Big 12 (8th passing, 7th rushing)
Retzlaff tossed two interceptions, but one was an end-of-half play — and he more than made up for it in the second-half. BYU opened the third quarter with 10 straight run plays, but then found Keelan Marion on a 34-yard touchdown strike.
Then, of course, Retzlaff led the last-minute, walk-off touchdown drive with a big run and touchdown pass.
Given their opponent's quick-strike offensive style, BYU may look to the ground game and try to control the ball (and clock) to give its defense a rest. Look for another 100+ yard game from LJ Martin.
UCF failed to defend Iowa State's mobile quarterback Rocco Becht on scrambles. They failed to adjust all game, and Becht crushed them at least five times. This is one of Retzlaff's best strengths, and I expect him to extend drives with his legs.
Game prediction
I have been very impressed by BYU so far this season, and they look like a contender in the wide-open league race. BYU is deserving of a higher AP poll ranking, as they are undefeated and are one of just three programs with multiple wins over currently ranked teams, along with No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Georgia.
This team is drawing 1984 parallels, and the magical run will continue Saturday, with a final drive containing multiple Retlzaff scrambles and an eventual game-winning field goal.
BYU 30 | UCF 28
