Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
- Utah's recent loss to Arizona revealed ongoing red zone struggles, a critical factor in their defeat as evidenced by only managing 3 points during three crucial drives.
- The team's red zone conversion rate is 81.8%, ranking 88th nationally, with only 50% of red zone trips resulting in touchdowns.
- Freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson showed potential but lacked support due to predictable play-calling and insufficient receiving options.
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah lost its first game of the season on Saturday because ...
There's probably a few things that came to your mind quickly, so you don't need my help to finish that sentence. And barring some really crazy reasons, you're probably right.
The Utes just weren't good enough against Arizona.
A myriad problems were present, and all contributed to the losing effort. But at the end of the day — amid all the contributing factors — it was the offense not producing in the red zone that ultimately led to the fall.
And though it was certainly the contributing factor on Saturday, it's been a problem for much of the season. Case in point, Utah ranks 88th in the country in red zone conversion — an 81.8% rate inside the 20-yard line.
Even worse, though, only 50% of all trips have resulted in a touchdown out of 22 trips inside the red zone.
To further the frustration, Utah averaged only 2.5 points per trip inside the 40-yard line — extending it further out of the red zone — while Arizona averaged 3.3 points. The winning percentage of a team with that few points per game is approximately 20% based on historical data for college football. As such, on average (historically), that team loses by about 14 points — Arizona won by 13.
The math checks out well there.
For the season, Utah averages just 3.8 points per trip inside the 40-yard line, which equates to about a 50% chance at winning a game as a historical average. Utah has only posted a positive margin this season in points scored inside the 40-yard line in games against Southern Utah and Utah State.
Points are coming at a premium, especially as Utah gets closer to the end zone.
On Saturday, freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson had no trouble leading Utah down the field on the first three drives of the game, but once inside the red zone the team stalled and managed a meager — and game-altering — 3 points.
Wilson's limited experience on the field was a contributing factor in the red zone, but the coaching staff's play-calling also limited his ability to execute at a level conducive to his level of play.
So where did it go wrong? Let's break it down a bit.
1st drive: 0 points
- 3rd & 3 (11-yard line): Mike Mitchell runs off tackle for a 1-yard gain. Utah has a tell-tale sign, and it's putting Mitchell on the field in this situation almost exclusively. Though a fine call, it's predictable and Arizona had two weeks to game plan for it.
- 4th & 2 (10-yard line): Mike Mitchell runs off tackle for a 1-yard loss — turnover on downs. Instead of mixing it up, Utah went right back to the same play with 10 defenders in the box, and an unblocked corner makes the tackle for loss.
- Assessment: The decision to go for it on fourth down on the first drive seemed reasonable at the time, but the play-calling lacked creativity or adaptability from third to fourth down.
2nd drive: 0 points
- 2nd & Goal (6-yard line): Utah lined up in 12 personnel, with Money Parks and Dorian Singer flexed out to the left side. Wilson immediately rolls out to his left as the two receivers run a rub route. But Arizona locks up the passing options and Wilson smartly throws the ball away.
- 3rd & Goal (6-yard line): With two backers and three receivers tight, Wilson stares down (too long) an overloaded side of defenders before eventually sprinting to his left to pick up 4 yards on a run that is stopped short of the goal.
- 4th & Goal (2-yard line): Utah in 13 personnel, with tight end Caleb Lohner flexed out to the left as Wilson's only receiving option. Wilson quickly fakes a handoff before firing the ball to Lohner in the end zone. Wilson hit Lohner exactly where he needed to, but the corner breaks up the play.
- Assessment: Giving a freshman only one receiving option on fourth down leaves little room for error; and to have that option be someone playing in only his fifth game ever adds to that already slim margin. There's many other options, such as Brant Kuithe in the Wildcat, or having Parks or Dijon Stanley (or Kuithe, even) run a jet sweep, or just more receiving options for Wilson to throw to.
3rd drive: 3 points
- 2nd & 5 (6-yard line): Micah Bernard runs inside zone but tries last second to get outside the guard and gets tripped up for a 1-yard gain. Had he run inside the guard, it's likely a few more yards.
- 3rd & 4 (5-yard line): Utah with two backers and Parks and Singer flexed out to the left. Parks goes into motion, but after the snap the offensive line is overloaded and three defenders immediately put pressure on Wilson, who fires the ball to an easily covered Parks in the end zone. Just a little more time and Dallen Bentley is open in the flat for an easy 5-yard touchdown.
- Assessment: Execution was the name of the game all around. The opportunities were there, and the play-calling was more advantageous to Wilson, but the execution all around simply wasn't there.
In retrospect, the three drives largely dictated the tone of the night and were the difference in a 21-3 (or even a 9-3) game and what Utah was forced to settle with — 3 points in three tries.
Wilson did connect with Lohner later in the game for a touchdown, but it came at the 20-yard line — just outside of the red zone.
So where does Utah go for here?
"We know exactly what needs to happen," Kyle Whittingham said Tuesday. "We've gotta do better schematically, put our kids in position to succeed, we've gotta tweak some things in practice — the way we go about it — and so we've got it all mapped out. I'm not gonna say anything; I'm not going to tell Arizona State what we're going to do, but we've definitely identified problems, and we know that we need to be a lot better there."
If Wilson remains the starter, it's all about giving him the best possible options to succeed as a quarterback. Teams will continue to load up the box to pressure the freshman, so find ways to make him comfortable — that includes more options for him to throw to in passing downs.
Wilson needs to continue to develop and quickly read the defense pre-snap, but that only comes with experience, so make his decision-making easier with comfortable, highly-executable reads.
