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Top-ranked Oregon is undefeated at home and on the road but below .500 in Las Vegas.
The Ducks have covered the point spread in just three of their seven games thus far. And to that end, well, they have plenty of company.
Collectively, the 10 former Pac-12 schools are slightly below .500 against the spread this season, according to data from TeamRankings.com:
Arizona State: 5-2
Colorado: 5-2
Cal: 4-3
UCLA: 4-3
USC: 4-3
Oregon: 3-4
Washington: 3-4
Utah: 2-5
Stanford: 2-5
Arizona: 1-6
The combined total, 33-37 (or 47.1%), makes sense. The teams have underperformed on the field, but the nature of point spreads provides a constant pull toward 50% success.
Oh, and we should add the disparate performances against the spread by the two remaining Pac-12 schools:
Washington State: 5-2
Oregon State: 2-5
(If you're curious about the broader wagering canvas, know that only one FBS team remains undefeated against the spread this season: Army.)
To the picks …
Last week: 6-3
Season: 42-27
Five-star special: 4-4
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV (Friday)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: Tough to beat Boise State if you cannot slow tailback Ashton Jeanty, but the Rebels have a stout run defense. Also, they have a dynamic offense, stellar coaching and enough moxie to win the game outright. Pick: UNLV
Washington (+6.5) at Indiana
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The spread would be several points higher but for the injury to Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (thumb). His expected absence creates an opening for the Huskies, who had two weeks to prepare and should play their best road game of the season after learning from the loss at Iowa. Pick: Washington
Wake Forest (-3) at Stanford
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: The Demon Deacons played on the road last week (at UConn) and now must head to the West Coast to face a vulnerable opponent that won't generate much urgency during the six-hour flight. We expect an energized performance from the struggling Cardinal if coach Troy Taylor makes a quarterback change to freshman Elijah Brown. Pick: Stanford
Brigham Young (+1.5) at UCF
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Cougars opened as slight favorites, but the line has moved to the Knights. A warm Orlando afternoon — against an opponent that was so close to winning at Iowa State last weekend — feels like the moment BYU's magical run comes to a close. Pick: UCF
Oregon State (+9.5) at Cal
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: Regular readers of this column know the Hotline loves Cal as an underdog and loathes Cal as a favorite, especially as a home favorite. Both teams are desperate, which adds to the likelihood that it goes to the wire. Pick: Oregon State
Texas (-18.5) at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on SEC Network
Comment: The Longhorns are headed for Letdown City after the loss to Georgia, and for the first time in years, Nashville is not the place to course-correct. Texas won't suffer the same fate as Alabama against the better-than-expected Commodores, but this should be close in the fourth quarter. Pick: Vanderbilt
Utah (-3.5) at Houston
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN+
Comment: Time for the Utes to dig deep as they scramble to salvage the season after three consecutive losses and a coordinator change. Houston is the ideal opponent, and setting, for reclamation projects. Pick: Utah
West Virginia (+3.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Comment: The line continues to move in Arizona's direction despite all the problems percolating in Tucson, including a spate of injuries to the defense that have exposed the Wildcats' lack of depth. After three consecutive losses, do they have a streak-buster in them? We think so, but that extra half-point makes the Mountaineers mighty tempting in what could be a field-goal game. Pick: West Virginia
Cincinnati (+5.5) at Colorado
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The Buffaloes have covered the spread in five consecutive games, and there is no reason (none, zero, zip) to think their momentum won't continue whether or not Travis Hunter is fully healthy. Cincinnati's pass defense is on the bottom tier nationally in several key metrics, and if there's one thing CU does well, it's the aerial game. Pick: Colorado
Washington State (-14.5) at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: The Aztecs are coming off a bye and should pose problems for WSU on both sides of the ball. This strikes us as a dangerous game for the Cougars — to a much greater extent than the point spread indicates. The key stat: turnovers by WSU quarterback John Mateer. If he commits more than one, the Aztecs win outright. Pick: San Diego State
Straight-up winners: UNLV, Washington, Stanford, UCF, Cal, Texas, Utah, Arizona, Colorado and Washington State
Five-star special: Washington. We'll take the Huskies and the points with two weeks to prepare, previous experience with early kickoffs and an undefeated opponent that is probably feeling a bit too good about itself.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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