Why Thursday's Big 12 game between BYU, Utah could be NCAA Tournament eliminator

PROVO — BYU women's basketball entered the Big 12 Tournament with eyes squarely focused on 16th-seeded Houston, the Cougars' first opponent.

But they knew exactly what awaited them, too.

Wednesday's 76-66 win over the conference's other Cougars set up a next-day rivalry game at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City (12:30 p.m. MST, ESPN+), where No. 8 Utah awaits ninth-seeded BYU in the third meeting between the two long-time rivals, each with a head coach in his first full season leading the program.

But it might also be an elimination game for the NCAA Tournament.

The Utes and Cougars entered the weeklong conference tournament squarely on the bubble for the field of 68, according to ESPN lead women's bracketologist Charlie Creme. Utah has a slight advantage in the "first four out" category, ranked among the teams rated 69th-72nd near the cut line.

BYU is five spots back as recently as Monday.

"It's been a while since BYU women's basketball has been in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament," said BYU sophomore Delaney Gibb, the All-Big 12 first-team selection who scored 15 points in Wednesday's win. "It's exciting, for sure. But for us, we really want to focus on what we can control — and there's a lot that we can't.

"Preparing for the Big 12 Tournament, getting a couple of great games," she added. "I feel like we're playing some of the best basketball that we have all year, and it's exciting to be at that point."

The Utes (19-11) have the better resume, including a 10-9 record in Big 12 play and the No. 55 rating in the NET. That includes two Quad 1 wins — both in league play against No. 11 TCU and No. 18 West Virginia — as well as a 12-1 record in Quads 3 and 4.

Led by All-Big 12 second-team guard Lani White, who averages 15.6 points per game that includes double figures in 16 of her last 18 contests, Utah finds itself behind only Richmond (25-6, No. 37 NET) in Creme's bracket projection.

But the Cougars own a crucial tiebreaker against the Utes: an in-season sweep over their conference rivals for the first time since the two were in the Mountain West together in 2011. BYU rallied in the fourth quarter for a 77-65 win in Provo, before Gibb erupted for a career-high 37 points in an 86-74 victory on the Hill.

In fact, of the 16 teams considered "on the bubble" (last four byes, last four in, first four out, next four out), BYU has played them nine times with a 7-2 record. That includes wins over Iowa State, Virginia Tech and Colorado, and two each of the Utes and Arizona State.

"I think that's important; I think it's one of their metrics," BYU coach Lee Cummard said of the bubble group. "Everything else, they'll have to decide."

BYU still has time to make a final impression, too. The winner of the weeklong conference tournament, which will host its championship Sunday unless BYU makes the final (when it will be moved to Monday), gets an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament.

The Cougars, who sit two spots behind the Utes at No. 57 in the NET, are also winless in Quad 1 attempts (0-4) and have perhaps two of the worst losses in the group in a 76-67 home setback to No. 108 Cincinnati (11-20) and a 75-72 road stumble to No. 123 Arizona (12-17).

All of that could explain why one Utah women's basketball team will likely see its NCAA bubble burst Thursday afternoon, and the other could at least get a crucial resume opportunity in Friday's quarterfinals against Big 12 regular-season champion and No. 1 seed TCU (12:30 p.m. MST, ESPNU).

One game at a time, though, Cummard likes to note. BYU focused on the other Cougars to win a game in the Big 12 Tournament for the first time ever already. Next up are the Utes.

"Traditionally, 9-9 in this league gets you in. But Colorado was 9-9 last year and didn't get in the tournament," said Cummard, referencing the Cougars' league record. "Kansas State had a game on the final day where they lost and earned the 12 seed; if they had won, they'd be the 7 seed.

"I think that paints a really clear picture of this league," he added. "We lost to Arizona by 3, and if we had won that game we'd be the 7-seed. There's a lot of parity, especially in this group in the middle ... and any given night, a team can win and any team can lose. It doesn't matter who you're playing."

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