- Tim Mehedy, economist at Access/Macro, described 2025 as a "messy" year economically.
- A Utah poll shows 85% of voters are concerned about the economy, citing inflation.
- Mehedy notes consumer spending grew despite concerns and midterm elections may impact markets.
SALT LAKE CITY — From an economic standpoint, 2025 was a "messy" year.
At least, that's how Tim Mehedy, co-founder and chief economist at Access/Macro, saw it.
Mehedy reflected on a chaotic 2025 and spoke about his economic outlook for 2026 on Wednesday at an event in Salt Lake City hosted by the Bank of Utah.
"There's a sizeable amount of momentum heading into the first quarter (of 2026)," Mehedy said. "That is not what we thought when we entered '25. Even in the middle of '25, we were pretty worried about a recession and those fears, right now, seem pretty far away."
Still, a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, conducted in January among 799 registered Utah voters, found that around 85% of respondents reported being somewhat or very concerned about the country's economy.
Inflation was the top concern among respondents, cited by 47% of those concerned about the economy. The cost of housing ranked second at 29%, while retirement savings concerns (11%) and job loss (4%) lagged well behind.
Despite inflationary pressures, Mehedy said consumers are still spending money.
"Not only did it (consumer spending) grow ... it grew by more in each quarter than the last. Consumers picked up speed. Who would have thought that?" Mehedy said.
Elections and the economy
With 2026 marking a midterm election year, some may be wondering how, if at all, the midterm elections could impact the economic outlook.
"I would say it's a fairly, I think, safe forecast to think there will be some fireworks, whatever that looks like on whatever side," Mehedy said. "There is potential for some really strange scenarios which may impact consumers."
Mehedy said that, traditionally, elections don't have much impact on the economy — the same can't be said for financial markets.
He pointed to a current phenomenon where consumers "continue to grumble and kick and be upset about the state of the economy," yet still spend at or above normal levels.
"But at some point — if people are truly fearful, truly uncertain — they will pull back spending and businesses will pull back investment. In that world, that could come from an election shock. If we get some craziness and legal fights and all this stuff on the election, I can see businesses and people say, 'I'm holding off until we get some clarity.' I think that is a real possibility, whoever, whatever the outcome is later this year," Mehedy said.
