Pick Six Previews: Oregon the more complete team in former Pac-12 matchup with USC

SALT LAKE CITY — Old Pac-12 rivals meet in a de facto playoff elimination game as No. 15 USC (8-2) flies north to take on No. 7 Oregon (9-1).

This is the first time since Lincoln Riley's debut season in 2022 that USC is in league contention in November. A win over Oregon would not only boost their own resume, but the head-to-head result would ensure they are placed above Oregon in the at-large pecking order.

Speaking of resume boosts, Oregon is one of the few Associated Press top 20 teams that does not have a win over a currently ranked team. This would be their signature win, and certainly an 11-1 Oregon team would be selected for the bracket — they may even place high enough to host a playoff game in Eugene.

This was the clear pick for our national preview of the week: a pair of top-10 quarterbacks leading their top-10 offenses against each other with a playoff spot at stake (1:30 p.m. MST, CBS).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Oregon 77.7 (4th of 68 Power 4) | USC 63.1 (15th)
2024 season: Oregon 77.4 (4th) | USC 63.3 (18th)
2025 season: Oregon 78.8 (7th) | USC 72.1 (12th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Oregon to finish third in the Big Ten and earn an at-large bid to the playoff. I was impressed with their talent acquisition, both from high school recruiting and the transfer portal.

The talent level was undeniable, but there was so much youth and new starters that I wrote: "Oregon is my pick to win the national title … in 2026."

Oregon beat Penn State in the "White Out" game to start a six-game losing streak and the head coach being fired.

The Ducks then lost by 10 to Indiana, and grinded out an 18-16 win over Iowa. Their other seven wins were all by double digits, with huge yardage margins. They check in at No. 7 in 2025 Game Grader.

USC was my pick for fourth place, and so far that has also held true. At 7.5 wins, they were also one of my "best win totals" from my Pick Six PLUS package. They are already 8-2, with a decisive 31-13 win over Michigan, close wins over Iowa and Nebraska, and five blowouts.

They fumbled twice at the goal-line and lost by 2 to Illinois, and then lost by 10 to Notre Dame. USC is currently No. 12 in Game Grader.

Oregon with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Oregon offense: 3rd of 68 Power 4 teams, 8th passing, 2nd rushing
USC defense: 40th of 68 Power 4 teams, 43rd pass defense, 52nd rush defense

Oregon has had super-veteran quarterbacks recently with Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, so it was unknown how they would fare with a younger signal-caller. Coordinator Will Stein made sure this offense didn't miss a beat; and with sophomore Dante Moore at quarterback, Oregon is right back in the top 10 of almost every statistical category.

Moore is No. 4 nationally in QB rating, the offense is in the top 10 of both my explosive passing and explosive rushing categories, and they are averaging 39 points per game. Last week, they put up 42 points on Minnesota and did so on 8.1 yards per play.

Noah Whittington had one of the best runs of the entire season as he ran into a pack of defenders, carried the pile, and then broke out for a long touchdown.

The staff made excellent additions to the line from the transfer portal, and as a unit, the offensive line was named one of 10 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award.

In a matchup with elite position rooms and top-10 rankings, the only unit that has questions is the USC defense, which ranks 40th in my opponent-adjusted metric.

Of my 18 stat categories, they rank in the top 25 in only one: negative play rate. This means they attack with blitzes and disrupt in the backfield, with tackles for loss and sacks; however they are over-exposed to long-yardage breakdowns (No. 104 in explosive rushing, No. 48 in explosive passing).

If Oregon's line can hold long enough against the USC blitz, Moore will pick them apart.

USC with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

USC offense: 1st of 68 Power 4 teams, 5th passing, 7th rushing
Oregon defense: 6th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st pass defense, 20th rush defense

USC can match Oregon offense for offense, quarterback for quarterback, playmaker for playmaker — they even average the exact same yards per play (7.4) and nearly the same scoring offense (38.2 points per game).

Jayden Maiava took over the starting job late last season and has thrived here in 2025 with a No. 8 national QB rating, the No. 2 yards per attempt, and 24 total touchdowns.

USC suffered multiple injuries to their backfield, but freshman King Miller is averaging 113 yards per game in his five starts. Maiava and Miller have been stars, but their best playmaker is receiver Makai Lemon, who leads the entire Big Ten with 1,090 yards and has a case for All-America consideration.

Last week, USC fell behind 21-7 to Iowa, but then the offense led five straight scoring drives, where Lemon was a total game-changer.

It will be strength vs. strength when this USC pass offense attempts to throw on Oregon's No. 1-ranked pass defense. Oregon has held all 10 of their opponents below their season averages, and this chess match between Lincoln Riley and Tosh Lupoi will be fascinating.

Game prediction

This matchup features two elite offenses, but only one elite defense. Oregon's got it all, while USC still has to prove it can stop (or slow) top offenses. In his four-year USC tenure, Riley is 6-13 (.315) against the spread on the road, and 14-21 (.400) ATS in league games.

Oregon 37 | USC 30

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