Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
PROVO — Just three years removed from the program's decade of conference independence, BYU powered its way into its first conference title game since 1998, when the Cougars played Air Force for the WAC crown.
Now as a Power Four program in the 12-team playoff era, the stakes are even higher this time.
Last year, BYU was close — a 10-2 (7-2 Big 12) resume came up on the wrong end of tiebreakers. But this time around, BYU clinched a title game spot outright on their own merits by defeating UCF 41-21 to finish an 11-1 regular season.
Bear Bachmeier completed 84% of his passes for 289 yards and a score, LJ Martin punched in three rushing touchdowns, and Parker Kingston scored twice.
BYU will face Texas Tech in a rematch of a 29-7 Red Raiders win in early November.
Texas Tech destroyed West Virginia 49-0 (+400 yardage) to finish off an 11-1 regular season, the program's best since 2008. This will be Texas Tech's first conference title game in school history. The winner earns the Big 12's automatic bid to the playoff, and for both teams it would be their first time making the bracket (10 a.m. MST, ABC).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | Texas Tech 51.5 (32nd)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | Texas Tech 50.9 (39th)
2025 season: BYU 65.6 (17th) | Texas Tech 87.5 (2nd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They have exceeded expectations and earned a spot in the Big 12 title with an impressive 11-1 season.
Texas Tech just wrapped up one of the most dominant regular seasons with all 11 wins by 20+ points. Of the 1,500+ FBS teams in the playoff era (2014-25) this year's Texas Tech team joins 2018 Alabama and 2019 Ohio State as the only ones with that distinction.
Texas Tech lost by 4 points to Arizona State with their backup quarterback but beat every other team by 20 or more. Texas Tech has surged all the way up to No. 2 in my Game Grader.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense: 26th of 68 Power 4 teams, 28th passing, 30th rushing
Texas Tech defense: 5th of 68 Power 4 teams, 11th pass defense, 1st rush defense
Entering 2025, the BYU offense had two major uncertainties: The starting quarterback was dismissed over the summer, and the offensive line needed to find three new full-time starters.
Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick aced both tests. The offensive line reloaded and ranks in the top 25 in both OL run push and pass protection. And at quarterback, true freshman Bear Bachmeier has been an efficient passer, is fourth in the Big 12 in yards per pass, took care of the ball with a top 20 TD-INT (14-4) ratio, and is a physical runner.
He and Martin look like linebackers in the backfield as they run over their opponents.
BYU will face arguably the best defense in America; and in their first meeting, Texas Tech held BYU to just 7 points. Last week, the Tech defense shut out West Virginia and it took until the sixth possession for WVU to get a single first down.
This is the No. 1 rushing defense, which features a trio of All-American candidates: do-it-all linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, nose tackle Lee Hunter, and the nation's sack leader David Bailey. Tech has the advantage on this side of the ball.
Texas Tech with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Texas Tech offense: 21st of 68 Power 4 teams, 20th passing, 25th rushing
BYU defense: 26th of 68 Power 4 teams, 13th pass defense, 27th rush defense
In the November matchup, Texas Tech moved the ball well but froze up in the red zone. Credit BYU's defense for hunkering down and keeping Tech out of the end zone. On seven red zone trips, Tech only punched in one touchdown and settled for five field goals. It kept the 29-7 score reasonable and avoided a total blowout.
Since then, the Tech staff has made red zone touchdowns a point of emphasis, and the focus has paid off. In the UCF and West Virginia games, Tech scored touchdowns on 11-of-14 red zone trips — a high 79% TD rate that would rank third nationally — and have outscored opponents 116-16 in their last three games.
For BYU to pull off the upset, they need to win this side of the ball, steal multiple takeaways, and mirror their November performance in the red zone.
Game prediction
Kalani Sitake deserves coach of the year praise. This team is being undervalued by the playoff selection committee and should be given the 2024 SMU treatment — an 11-1 team that lost in the league title but was still rewarded with a playoff spot.
With that said, Texas Tech has been an absolute machine. Even Sitake called them "the best team in the country." I saw this matchup live on the sidelines in Lubbock, and it is difficult to see it going differently here in the rematch.
Tech is a nation-best 11-1 against-the-spread this year and The West Texas Winners will put an exclamation point on their dream season.
Texas Tech 34 | BYU 17
