Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
PROVO — Picked by Big 12 media to finish toward the bottom of the expanded 16-team conference, BYU has shattered all expectations and is riding an undefeated "dream season" into its second bye week.
The Cougars are 8-0 overall and 5-0 in Big 12 play, with the program's longest win streak and highest Associated Press poll ranking since 2020.
It has not been a fluke. BYU is one of just five programs so far with multiple wins over currently ranked teams — wins at No. 20 SMU and at home against No. 17 Kansas State — and joins Oregon, Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M with that feat.
Here at the final bye week, it's a chance to take inventory of how BYU is stacking up in my opponent-adjusted metrics through eight games compared to the first bye and last season.
I'll also look ahead to BYU's final four opponents as the Cougars continue to chase perfection in November and beyond.
Game Grader
2023: 63rd of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 13th of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 13th of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)
Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. The 29-point win over a ranked Kansas State is one of the highest individual Game Grades of the entire season so far.
Undefeated BYU is all the way up to No. 13 in 2024 Game Grader — behind only Iowa State among Big 12 teams — and has reached their highest ranking since the 2020 season.
Out of eight games, BYU has outgained six opponents, won or tied the turnover margin seven times, held six offenses below their season averages, and outperformed seven defenses' season averages.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play offense
2023: 69th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 45th of 70 Power Four (12th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 34th of 70 Power Four (8th in Big 12)
When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story, such as 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Akron. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.
Instead, my metrics evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. BYU continues to improve here, after placing second-worst in Power Four in 2023.
At the first bye week, BYU rose to No. 45 and has jumped again to No. 34. Now, with a healthy running back room, the BYU run game has gained momentum. The rushing attack, quarterback Jake Retzlaff's mobility, their explosiveness, and their red zone efficiency (No. 8 in Power Four) all factor into a significant one-year turnaround.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play defense
2023: 48th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 10th of 70 Power Four (1st in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 10th of 70 Power Four (1st in Big 12)
Second-year coordinator Jay Hill's defense has continued to thrive and is one of the most improved units in America. BYU ranks fourth nationally in creating turnovers, and fourth in Power Four in my opponent-adjusted pass defense metric.
They have held all opponents under their season passing averages, and dominated the three top 40 passing offenses: SMU, Baylor and Kansas State. BYU held those three to 202 passing yards per game, a low 53% completion rate, and more picks (five) than touchdowns (three).
Remaining schedule and projections
With a perfect 8-0 start, it is time to look ahead at BYU's November path to a potential Big 12 title game and playoff berth. The following ranks are out of 70 Power Four teams, and the projection is what Game Grader would currently calculate the line at.
at Utah
(No. 44 overall Game Grader, No. 62 offense, No. 22 defense)
The Holy War was supposed to be the opposite script, with preseason favorite Utah now in a "spoiler" role. Utah's offense has completely collapsed without quarterback Cam Rising, and their longtime offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned two weeks ago.
Projection: BYU by 7.5
Kansas
(No. 47 overall Game Grader, No. 19 offense, No. 50 defense)
Lance Leipold turned the worst Power Four program into a winner, but in 2024 they have suffered a nation-worst five one-score losses. That means they are better than their record shows, but quarterback Jalon Daniels has been a turnover machine so far, and it has cost them in crunch time.
Projection: BYU by 14
at Arizona State
(No. 30 overall Game Grader, No. 53 offense, No. 18 defense)
This is the closest projected margin, and it will be a physical test. Head coach Kenny Dillingham said he modeled his program after Utah — physicality and strength in the trenches, complementary football, ball control, etc. — and has his team playing solid football.
Projection: BYU by 4
Houston
(No. 57 overall Game Grader, No. 60 offense, No. 40 offense)
Houston was the consensus last-place pick in the Big 12, but they have played good defense and upset both TCU and Utah. I imagine this will be a significant home-field advantage and an electric atmosphere at LaVell Edwards Stadium — especially if 12-0 is at stake.
Projection: BYU by 17
Big 12 title game vs. Iowa State
(No. 6 overall Game Grader, No. 30 offense, No. 25 defense)
Should BYU go 4-0 or 3-1 in November, they will earn a trip to Dallas for the Big 12 title game. The only other undefeated Big 12 team so far is Iowa State, and Game Grader projects a field goal decision for this theoretical matchup.
The winner of this game gets an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff, a first-round bye, and a trip to the national quarterfinal (Fiesta Bowl).
Projection: Iowa State by 3
