Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah entered its first bye week of the 2024 season with a 4-1 record after sweeping their nonconference slate and splitting their first two Big 12 matchups.
Since then, they've lost three more conference games and now enter their final bye week with a 4-4 overall record.
As the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, almost all team goals are now off the table. Utah is eliminated from both Big 12 contention and the playoff, had a midseason coordinator change, and now take on the spoiler role against their undefeated rival BYU.
Here at the final bye week, it's a chance to take inventory of how Utah is stacking up in my opponent-adjusted metrics through eight games compared to the first bye week, and last season.
Game Grader
2023: 35th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 25th of 70 Power Four (4th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 44th of 70 Power Four (10th in Big 12)
Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. The Baylor and Oklahoma State victories were strong and kept Utah in the top 25 at their first bye week, but they have been in free fall since.
Utah lost to two former Pac-12 foes (Arizona by 13 and Arizona State by 8), then lost to TCU by 6 and to 2023 newcomer Houston by 3. The margins have been slim, and Utah is one of just nine Power Four teams to suffer three or more one-score losses so far, but these losses came to teams in the middle or at the bottom of the league.
Currently at No. 44, Utah is way below my preseason expectations.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play offense
2023: 65th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 60th of 70 Power Four (16th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 62nd of 70 Power Four (16th in Big 12)
When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story, such as 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Akron. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.
Instead, my metrics evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. Utah checks in among the worst in Power Four — dead last in the Big 12. This was originally due to Rising's injury, but there has been no progress here.
Utah has been held under 20 points scoring in four straight games for the first time since 1997. As a result, longtime offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned after the TCU loss.
Opponent-adjusted pass offense
2023: 63rd of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 61st of 70 Power Four (15th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 66th of 70 Power Four (16th in Big 12)
The passing offense stat compares Utah's QB rating against what their opposing defenses average giving up.
There has been no progress here from last season, as Utah remains in the bottom ten. With Rising barely playing a total of eight quarters this season, the keys to the offense were passed to true freshman Isaac Wilson.
In the Utah State game, it appeared that Wilson was gaining confidence, but that trend has not continued after five starts. Rising attempted to play in the Arizona State game but his throw velocity was off, he suffered a leg injury, and was unable to complete basic passes.
Opponent-adjusted rush offense
2023: 46th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 59th of 70 Power Four (14th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 59th of 70 Power Four (15th in Big 12)
The rushing stat compares Utah's yards per carry against what their opposing defenses allow. With Rising's injury, and Wilson's youth, the passing struggles could be understandable. But Utah's rushing problems are a shock.
Micah Bernard has taken on a workhorse role and is currently fifth in the league with 782 rushing yards. But from a team view, Utah falls to 78th nationally in per-carry average, and having played some weak rushing defenses, Utah's opponent-adjusted number falls to second-worst in the entire Big 12.
The 17 sacks allowed also hurt.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play defense
2023: 19th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 20th of 70 Power Four (3rd in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 22nd of 70 Power Four (4th in Big 12)
Don't blame the defense for the disappointing 4-4 record. Morgan Scalley's defense is off to another solid start, where they are in the top 25 after eight games. They are still one of the few defenses to hold every opponent below their offensive averages and are second in the Big 12 in scoring defense allowing just 16.5 points per game.
Opponent-adjusted pass defense
2023: 8th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 18th of 70 Power Four (4th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 19th of 70 Power Four (3rd in Big 12)
The new-look secondary featured four new starters, and lost another starter in the opener. But the defense has maintained a top 20 ranking all season here.
TCU entered the game with a top 15 passing offense, but Utah held them to 53% completion, no touchdowns, and just 13 points, which was 23 points under their average.
In November, I will be keeping an eye on one of my favorite college football streaks. Utah currently holds the nation's longest active streak of seasons with a pick six — 20 years — but they have not scored one this season yet.
Opponent-adjusted rush defense
2023: 14th of 70 Power Four
2024 1st bye week: 40th of 70 Power Four (8th in Big 12)
2024 2nd bye week: 50th of 70 Power Four (11th in Big 12)
This statistical dropoff is a shocker so far. Utah was No. 14 here last year — and actually held the No. 1 ranking for several weeks in 2023 — but has fallen to below average in 2024.
Injuries have hurt the defensive lineup again, like last season, but this is simply uncharacteristic and unrecognizable of this program to be 50th (bottom 20) in rushing defense.
