The true freshman dilemma, and where Isaac Wilson stands in comparison to his peers

SALT LAKE CITY — Life as a true freshman quarterback is rough.

For that reason, most schools around the country — especially at the Power Four level — rarely turn over their offense to a quarterback that was just in high school months before. At the very least, most freshmen starters have a redshirt season before being entrusted with the top job.

But it does happen from time to time.

Take five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola, for example. The No. 2-ranked QB out of the 2024 recruiting class got the starting nod at Nebraska and has fared well his first season, leading the Cornhuskers to a 5-3 start to the season.

But Raiola's inexperience was a big contributing factor in Nebraska not being able to upset Ohio State in the waning seconds of the game last week when he threw an interception directly to the Buckeyes safety — it wasn't a tough read for the safety, who essentially didn't have to move to collect the ball.

Moments like those litter a true freshman's experience under center. The potential is there, but the inexperience is often too much.

For all the great things Raiola has done this season — passing for 1,744 yards and nine touchdowns on a 66.1% completion rate — there's the seven interceptions and the sped-up moments that make it difficult to fully turn over the offense to a young QB with no prior collegiate experience outside of learning in the moment.

In 2024, there have been six Power Four schools who have turned over their offense to a true freshman — though two have been more recently and have split time with more experienced starters for much of the season, like Florida's DJ Lagway and Oklahoma's Michael Hawkins Jr.

Of the six true freshmen, Raiola is the only player who was named the starter ahead of the season's start.

And though each has had varying success — Lagway, most recently, is trending in a very positive direction — none of the teams are in the playoff mix and have a combined 22-28 record going into the 10th week of the season.

Nebraska has an outside (read: slim to none) chance of the playoff with a 4-3 record; but like the other schools with true freshman starters, it appears to be a building season ahead of 2025.

Included in that mix is Utah true freshman Isaac Wilson, the four-star quarterback who a year ago was preparing for a 6A state title with his Corner Canyon teammates.

Many within the Utah football program believe he's the future — or did coming into the season. But the freshman was benched on Saturday in favor of three-year backup Brandon Rose.

And on Tuesday, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said the two quarterbacks will split reps during the bye week as the team prepares for in-state rival BYU next week.

"They are taking equal reps this week, and we'll see where it goes from there," Whittingham said.

Rose only managed 45 yards on 7-of-15 passing in the most extensive work of his collegiate career, and finished the night throwing a game-altering interception that set up Houston for the winning field goal.

Conversely, Wilson threw for 171 yards and one touchdown on 13-of-22 passing, but couldn't get the offense anything beyond his opening-series touchdown.

So is Wilson being judged too harshly for his play as Utah continues to look for an answer to a disappointing offense, or is this common for a true freshman QB?

In short, there's some precedent (at least the last three years — and more if we dug deeper) to say Wilson is right in line with how most true freshmen quarterbacks perform in their first season, though he's also on the lower end of that group.

Wilson was unexpectedly rushed into a starting role after seventh-year QB Cam Rising suffered two separate injuries that ultimately resulted in another lost season; and, as a result, was thrown into the mix without having anything to judge his performance off of other than what he's seen on the field.

Outside of the Arizona State game, when Rising attempted to return to action before his season-ending injury, Wilson has taken the bulk of the snaps in every game this season — all with an offense tailored around Rising and without a true understanding of whether he'd be the starter that week (outside of two or three times, at best).

As Utah played the back-and-forth game on whether Rising would play as a game-time decision, Wilson went from taking all the reps in practice some weeks to splitting reps in others. None of that likely provides confidence to a freshman quarterback who has to process everything for the first time.

Still, Wilson needs to improve, as is shown when comparing his fellow true freshmen starters this season (see below).

Dig a little deeper, and the numbers don't get any better, in comparison, when looking at his NFL passer rating, his average time holding onto the ball, and other analytics that are tracked by the team from Pro Football Focus.

Improvement needs to be made by Wilson, but few true freshmen have had a noticeable impact to a team's success on the field — at least in guiding a team to being a contender within their conference that season.

In 2023, three true freshmen started for their team at the Power Four level, but none of their teams had fewer than five losses. In 2022, there were only two true freshmen starters (one was only for the final four games of the season) and the results were the same.

2023 season

• Anthony Colandrea, Virginia: 8 games, 1,958 yards, 13 TD, 9 INT, 62.6%
• Dante Moore, UCLA: 9 games, 1,610 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT, 53.5%
• Grayson Loftis, Duke (Started last 5 games): 8 games, 1,006 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT, 55.8%

2022 season

• AJ Swann, Vanderbilt: 9 games, 1,274 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT, 58.1%
• Garret Rangel, Oklahoma State (Started last 3 games): 4 games, 711 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 51.3%

Experience is key.

Even just one year — a redshirt season — in a collegiate system has paid dividends for quarterbacks, who get to acclimate to the higher level of play, and often have a player mentor or coaching staff there to help them develop for the next season.

See Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee) and Sam Leavitt (Arizona State) this season; or in the two season before that, quarterbacks like Rocco Becht (Iowa State), Noah Fifita (Arizona), Josh Hoover (TCU), Connor Weigman (Texas A&M), Quinn Ewers (Texas), etc.

Each of the above players used a redshirt season before having success on the field as the full-time starter — some bigger than others. Many of which have been integral in their team being in contention for a playoff run this season.

That one extra season matters in development.

Wilson was expected to have that season until Rising got hurt. His potential and talent in practice won him the backup job ahead of the season, but it was always a tall task for him to be successful immediately as the starter.

Now, Utah is faced with sticking with Wilson — and the lumps a true freshman will bring — while hoping it will translate to more success in the future, or putting him back on the shelf to learn more behind a quarterback who has been in the system for several years but hasn't been able to beat out the competition prior to Saturday.

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