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SALT LAKE CITY — This water year was a bit of a "roller coaster," says Laura Haskell.
Utah ended up with an above-normal snowpack by the end of winter following a slow start. It melted efficiently enough that Utah avoided widespread flooding and ended up with its highest reservoir levels in over a decade. Then, the state went through hot and dry periods between intense monsoonal storms during a mostly dry summer.
"It was like we went from one extreme to another," said Haskell, drought coordinator with the Utah Division of Water Resources, as she reflected on the water year that ended on Monday. "We were hopeful, and then we were worried and then hopeful. We just kind of bounced back and forth a lot."
After all those ups, downs and twists and turns, Utah's reservoirs remain in a familiar spot at the start of the new water year.
The state's reservoir system — minus Lake Powell and Flaming Gorge — entered the start of the new 2025 water year Tuesday at 76% capacity, slightly higher than the start of the 2024 water year.
However, the percentage of drought in the state is also slightly higher than at the start of the recent water year. About 9.5% of Utah remains in moderate drought this week, up from 4.8% at the start of October 2023, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Areas in moderate drought shifted from southeast Utah to parts of southwest Utah and Tooele County.
Areas considered "abnormally dry" — a precursor to drought — also jumped from a little over 22% in 2023 to about 78%.
Utah's 2024 water year by the numbers
Unlike the calendar year, Utah's water year starts in October each year, to reflect the start of the state's water cycle. Snowpack collection — the amount of water in the snow — typically begins in October before it melts in April, resulting in about 95% of the state's water supply throughout the year.
The state got off to a slow start, as the snowpack collection on New Year's Day fell to 69% of the median average for the start of the calendar year. Yet, thanks to a productive February, Utah ended up with a statewide snowpack peak of 18.8 inches, nearly 3 inches above the average.
Utah's reservoir system peaked at almost 93% capacity by the time all the snow melted, about seven percentage points higher than the 2023 peak and the system's highest point in 13 years. And, aside from August, the water year ended on a generally hot and dry note, causing Utah's reservoir system to drop to 76% of capacity.
The state ended up with its second-hottest meteorological summer since 1895, and meteorological fall is off to an equally warm start. While statewide data is still being calculated, National Weather Service data shows that Salt Lake City ended up with its second-warmest September in 150 years of record keeping.
In the end, Utah's mountain sites — on average — collected 29 inches of precipitation throughout the recent water year, slightly below the 30-year median average of 29.3 inches, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
More complete statewide data is expected to be released next week, but some valley communities fared better than others. For example, the weather service's Salt Lake City office compiles extensive data in both Salt Lake City and Cedar City, and the two had completely different water years.
Salt Lake City ended up with 16.3 inches of precipitation during the 2024 water year, 0.78 inches above its 30-year normal. Cedar City, on the other hand, only received 7.23 inches of precipitation, which is 3.79 inches below its normal.
These types of differences happened across the state, which is why the state's dryest areas shifted over the past year.
The new water year
The 2025 water year has started the same way the 2024 year ended, said KSL meteorologist Devan Masciulli. She said a small storm is possible early next week, but weather models project mostly warm and dry conditions over the first two weeks.
Haskell hopes this trend will end soon so soil moisture levels can improve in time for the next snowpack collection. Higher soil moisture levels generally give way to a more efficient snowpack runoff, so more water ends up in the state's reservoirs.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center outlook indicates that some moisture may return toward the middle half of October and lists the state as having "equal chances" for precipitation from Oct. 12 to Oct. 25.
The center's outlook for the rest of the calendar year is also generally positive. It lists most of Utah as having precipitation during October, November and December, while some parts of the state have slightly higher probabilities for drier-than-normal conditions.
The state will continue to monitor these forecasts closely. Another good winter could help Utah stave off drought, but with so much of it abnormally dry right now, a poor performance would likely drop the state back into drought.
Should that be the case, Haskell says Utahns will likely see more water conservation messages. That's become normal, regardless of how productive a water year is because of the state's generally dry climate and increasing population.
However, the past two water years will have paid off if the 2025 water year is, ultimately, a bust. Utah's reservoirs are about 21 percentage points higher than the median average at the start of every water year. Haskell says it's a "bright spot" from the 2024 water year — that gives the state an advantage, no matter what happens next.
"To have that there — we know that we have that money in the bank," she said. "We have that water to draw on."
