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- State water managers remain hopeful for near-normal precipitation despite a slow start to the snowpack collection season.
- Utah's snowpack is 82% of the median average for mid-December.
- Reservoir levels are higher than normal, providing a buffer should this year's snowpack end below normal.
SALT LAKE CITY — A trio of storms that slammed into Utah over the past week has helped some snowpack and soil moisture levels, but state water managers say this season is still off to a slow start.
"We'll be happy if we can see near-normal precipitation across the state, but we are off to a slow start for December," said Candice Hasenyager, director of the Utah Division of Water Resources, as the division offered an update to the state's water situation this season.
Utah's statewide snowpack is now 82% of the median average for mid-December after a small storm passed through the northern end of the state on Tuesday. However, KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson said that will likely decrease a bit over the next week as a high-pressure system currently off the Pacific Coast moves toward the state, keeping it relatively warm and dry over the rest of this week.
Johnson said those conditions will likely linger into early next week, but long-range models now indicate a growing probability that stormy weather could return to Utah by midweek, possibly providing a white Christmas for a large chunk of the state.
After our 5-6 days (Dec 18-23) of high pressure , warm temperatures and haze, we should see a break-down of the ridge.
— Matthew Johnson (@KSL_Matt) December 17, 2024
69% of model members are advertising some kind of storm near or on Christmas Day. The change that we needed to happen, has happened! We like this trend! #utwxhttps://t.co/JO1Nfy42XQpic.twitter.com/bM4HoZe5wZ
That would be especially beneficial because the current statewide snowpack average is split between basins that are near- or above-normal and basins that are struggling to collect snow, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data.
As of Tuesday, the Beaver River Basin near south-central Utah remains in the best position so far this season at 126% of normal for mid-December. However, it mostly missed out on the latest precipitation, gaining just 0.1 inches of snow-water equivalent so far this month. It remains above normal because it received the brunt of a system that slammed the state before Thanksgiving.
The Dirty Devil, Upper Sevier and San Pitch basins — all in the same general area — also remain at or near the median average at this point in the year. Precipitation over the past week hoisted the Tooele Valley-Vernon Creek basin to 107% above its mid-December average, but most basins in Utah's northern half remain just below 80% of their respective median averages.
Southwest Utah has the lowest snowpack basin average right now. Its collection has fallen to 49% of what it normally collects by mid-December.
About 95% of Utah's water supply comes from the snowpack collection and spring snowmelt. The other downside is that a drier-than-normal second half of this year led to drier soil moisture levels, which can affect how much of the water within the snow ends up in lakes and reservoirs because drier soils lead water toward recharging groundwater storage.
Conservation Service officials reported earlier this month that Utah's soil moisture levels rose a bit to 33% after the pre-Thanksgiving storm, placing them in about the 30th percentile. The Utah Division of Water Resources reported Tuesday that soil moisture in many regions are still in the "critical" bottom 10th percentile.
However, there is plenty of time left in Utah's snowpack collection season, which normally peaks in early April. Last season also started slow before a run of storms in early January plus a strong February turned the year around, helping Utah's reservoir system reach its highest level in over a decade.
That's the kind of run that Hasenyager is hoping to have a repeat of.
The state's saving grace this year is that Utah's reservoir system is higher than normal for this point in the season. Utah's primary reservoirs are now about 75% full, 20 percentage points above the December median average.
That means there isn't much needed to refill most reservoirs at the end of this snowpack season, but Hasenyager said it also highlights the importance of water conservation because Utah could lose its "buffer" should dry conditions persist or worsen in 2025.
About 20% of the state is in either moderate or severe drought at the moment, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Another two-thirds of the state is listed as "abnormally dry."
"Reservoirs have been crucial in buffering us from recent droughts," she said. "Promising storage levels now reflect favorable water years and ongoing conservation efforts, which are key to ensuring water security amid climate uncertainties."
