Hotline Big 12 power rankings for Week 4: BYU and Utah on top as Texas Tech grabs pole position

The Big 12 football power rankings are published on the Hotline each Monday throughout the regular season. The placement of teams reflects both the latest results and season-long performance. (Call them objectively subjective.) For comparative purposes, we have included each team's position in last week's rankings.

The instant Houston quarterback Conner Weigman's knee grazed the turf Friday night in Lubbock, everything changed.

The Cougars failed to convert a 2-point attempt that would have tied the game in the final minute. Texas Tech secured a vital victory in the Big 12 opener, and the framework for the conference race was set.

Not for the Red Raiders and the Cougars.

For everybody.

Yes, it's the middle of September and mayhem is part of the Big 12's football ethos. But because of what comes next for Texas Tech — or more accurately: what doesn't come next — that Friday night thrill ride carried massive consequences up and down the standings.

Although they aren't as dominant this season as last, the 11th-ranked Red Raiders now hold the pole position thanks to a conference opponent rotation that was set years ago but might as well have been crafted this summer by billionaire booster Cody Campbell himself.

Texas Tech has eight Big 12 games remaining, and there isn't a ranked team in the bunch.

Combine their immensely favorable schedule with that head-to-head victory over No. 25 Houston and, in our view, the Red Raiders have a wider road to the conference championship game than anyone else by an order-of-magnitude.

Utah, BYU, Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona State — the other teams with realistic (or semi-realistic) designs on Arlington are effectively fighting for one spot. And they all play each other multiple times.

Perhaps that's an oversimplification. It's the middle of September, after all. But the dynamics of the conference schedule clearly favor the Red Raiders now that they have beaten Houston.

Here are Texas Tech's upcoming opponents and the likelihood of victory in each game for the Red Raiders as of Sunday afternoon, according to teamrankings.com, the sports wagering and analytics site:

at Colorado: 87%
vs. Arizona State: 72%
at Cincinnati: 74%
vs. Arizona: 80%
vs. West Virginia: 75%
at Oklahoma State: 57%
at Baylor: 62%
vs. TCU: 72%

They will be favored in all eight, and heavily favored in most.

And you'll notice who isn't on the list of Texas Tech opponents: No. 9 BYU and No. 15 Utah.

That's right. The Red Raiders don't play either of the Big 12's other ranked teams.

Even if we expand the scope of legitimate contenders to include the Arizona schools, plus Oklahoma State and Kansas State, the schedule rotation still favors the Red Raiders.

They have beaten Houston, don't play Utah, BYU or Kansas State and face Arizona and Arizona State at home. Their only road assignment within that collection of seven contenders is a November trip to Stillwater.

Meanwhile, each of the other contenders has a more difficult path based on the opponent rotation and the home-road breakdown.

Relative to the pack, the Red Raiders have a vastly more manageable remaining schedule.

The instant Weigman's knee grazed the turf Friday night, the dynamics of the race were set in favor of Texas Tech.

One outcome of many, decided in a nanosecond, with massive consequences for all.

To the power rankings ...

(All times Pacific)

1. BYU (3-0/1-0)

Result: won at Colorado State 41-23 (3-0)

Next up: idle

Comment: One reason quarterback Bear Bachmeier's pursuit of the Heisman Trophy is daunting: The Cougars' commitment to the running game — they gained 332 yards on the ground Saturday — will limit his touchdown passes, which often hook voters from other regions. (Last week: 1)

2. Utah (3-0)

Result: beat Utah State 33-0

Next up: at Iowa State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: The array of playmakers on Utah's depth chart is exceeded only by the creative ways offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven has put them to use. It has only been two years since the Andy Ludwig era. Feels like a decade. (Last week: 2)

3. Texas Tech (3-0/1-0)

Result: beat Houston 28-26

Next up: vs. Sam Houston (9 a.m. on TNT)

Comment: The defensive front generated solid pressure against Houston, especially in the second half. But as we saw in the close call at Oregon State, the secondary needs to tighten its coverage. Not an issue this week, obviously. (Last week: 3)

4. Houston (2-1/0-1)

Result: lost at Texas Tech 28-26 (2-1/0-1)

Next up: at Georgia Southern

Comment: If they play as well as they did in Lubbock, the Cougars should be in the race until November. Aiding their cause: BYU and the Arizona schools aren't on the schedule. (Last week: 7)

5. Arizona (2-1/0-1)

Result: beat Northern Illinois 42-17

Next up: at Washington State (4:30 p.m. on CBS)

Comment: Fresh off the slugfest at BYU, the Wildcats' sluggish start Saturday night was as predictable as their strong finish. Decent chance the rest of the conference sleeps on Arizona for the next six weeks, until it's beyond clear Noah Fifita and Co. are legitimate contenders. (Last week: 4)

6. Arizona State (2-1/1-0)

Result: beat Kansas 24-17 (in London)

Next up: idle

Comment: Based on the Texas A&M loss and the Kansas win, the Sun Devils' fate clearly depends on the speed with which quarterback Cutter Boley improves his pocket presence. He looks rattled back there far too often. (Last week: 5)

7. Oklahoma State (2-1)

Result: beat Murray State 59-0

Next up: at West Virginia (4 p.m. on FS1)

Comment: We are not predicting a spot in the Big 12 championship game for the Cowboys. But we aren't not predicting it, either. They might have the highest ceiling in the conference thanks to quarterback Drew Mestemaker. (Last week: 9)

8. West Virginia (3-0)

Result: beat Virginia 38-27 (in Charlotte)

Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (4 p.m. on FS1)

Comment: The conference is guaranteed to produce at least one sleeper team each season. With their upset of Virginia, the Mountaineers have vaulted to the top of the short list. (Last week: 14)

9. Kansas State (3-0)

Result: beat Tulane 31-20

Next up: at Cincinnati (4 p.m. on ESPN2)

Comment: The trip to Cincinnati and a visit from Houston in early October will offer clarity on whether the Wildcats are contender or pretender. We continue to lean to the latter. (Last week: 8)

10. Colorado (2-1)

Result: lost at Northwestern 41-7

Next up: at Baylor (9 a.m. on ESPN2)

Comment: Just when the Hotline thought this year might be different for the Buffaloes, they offer a ghastly performance against a Big Ten opponent that's no better than the mass of teams in the middle of the Big 12. (Last week: 6)

11. UCF (2-1)

Result: beat Georgia State 44-30

Next up: vs. TCU (12:30 p.m. on FS1)

Comment: We learned a fair amount about the Knights with their non-blowout of Georgia State, and what we learned suggests they won't be climbing these power rankings anytime soon. (Last week: 10)

12. Baylor (2-1)

Result: beat Louisiana Tech 36-19

Next up: vs. Colorado (9 a.m. on ESPN2)

Comment: The Dave Aranda Watch probably won't reach red alert until the stretch run, when the Bears face BYU, Texas Tech and Houston in unforgiving succession. (Last week: 11)

13. Iowa State (2-1)

Result: beat Bowling Green 55-7

Next up: vs. Utah (12:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: Our hunch: The Cyclones won't score 55 in the next three games combined, and maybe the next four. Don't forget that Bowling Green lost to Tarleton State. (Last week: 12)

14. Cincinnati (3-0)

Result: beat Miami-Ohio 35-31

Next up: vs. Cincinnati (4 p.m. on ESPN2)

Comment: The Bearcats trailed by 21 points at halftime and by 10 midway through the fourth quarter, but they dodged a major embarrassment with a long touchdown run in the final 90 seconds. (Last week: 13)

15. TCU (2-1)

Result: beat Arkansas State 31-7

Next up: at UCF (12:30 p.m. on FS1)

Comment: North Carolina has done nothing in recent weeks to prompt the Hotline to reconsider the Horned Frogs' performance in Dublin. It remains as unsavory as it seemed at the time. (Last week: 16)

16. Kansas (1-2/0-1)

Result: lost to Arizona State 24-17

Next up: idle

Comment: How long will it take the Jayhawks — and Arizona State, for that matter — to fully recover from the trip to London? Don't assume everything will be normal after their bye weeks. (Last week: 15)

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