Holy Score: Who's better right now, Utah or BYU? We broke down the matchup using real metrics and a fake location

Best we can tell, the midpoint between Utah's Rice-Eccles Stadium and BYU's LaVell Edwards Stadium is located roughly eight miles east of Draper, hard by a stream in the shadow of Box Elder Peak.

The coordinates: 40°30'31.6"N, 111°45'05.1"W.

It's not an ideal setting for football of any sort, even a family game of two-hand touch.

But let's imagine the Utes and Cougars were scheduled to play this weekend, not Nov. 7, at that most neutral of sites.

Which team should be favored?

Which team would win?

It's a relevant hypothetical given their twin positions in the very real Big 12 hierarchy.

Both are undefeated, both are ranked and both are frontrunners, along with Texas Tech and perhaps a few others, for the conference championship and berth in the College Football Playoff.

Further, let's imagine the rivals collided near Box Elder Peak with healthy lineups — that BYU had the services of injured running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker.

Even with those elite playmakers available, the Hotline would make Utah a slight favorite: 2 points, maybe 3.

Based on what we have seen thus far, the 12th-ranked Utes are playing at a higher level than the eighth-ranked Cougars.

Does the data support our conclusion? Yes and no. It's close.

To create an apples-to-apples comparison, let's eliminate each team's victory over its FCS opponent. For Utah, that's Idaho. For BYU, that's Utah Tech.

Without those results, both teams are 3-0.

Next, we examined scoring margin.

Utah is averaging 35.7 points per game and allowing just 9.0, the lowest in the FBS. The differential: 26.7 points.

BYU is averaging 28.7 points and allowing 16.7, for a differential of 12 per game.

Advantage: Utah, by a substantial margin.

We then examined yards-per-play gained and allowed, which is perhaps the most accurate measure of performance because it accounts for disparities in playing styles and tempos.

The Utes are averaging 6.8 yards-per-play on offense and allowing 4.0 on defense, for a difference of 2.8 — an impressive amount, for sure.

Meanwhile, the Cougars are averaging 6.5 yards-per-play on offense and allowing 4.9 on defense, for a differential of 1.6.

Advantage: Utah, again.

(Texas Tech has a yards-per-play differential of just 0.5, if you're curious.)

That said, we want to assess the Utes and Cougars on a level field, which means the disparity in early-season schedules must be considered:

— Both teams have played a Pac-12 opponent: Utah hosted Utah State while BYU visited Colorado State.

— Both teams have played a Big 12 road game: Utah won at Iowa State by 14 points; BYU won at TCU by a touchdown. (Weather conditions were essentially the same in Ames as in Fort Worth: rain.)

— And both teams have faced a second Power Four opponent: Utah welcomed Arkansas while BYU hosted Arizona.

We aren't sure whether Iowa State is better than TCU or vice versa. But clearly, BYU had the tougher assignment in the other instances: Arizona is better than Arkansas; and Colorado State is superior to Utah State.

That difference is reflected in the strength-of-schedule metrics.

The Sagarin computer ranks BYU's schedule No. 70 nationally, while Utah's schedule is No. 94.

We also examined ESPN's strength-of-record indicator, which measures how teams perform against their schedules compared to how an average team would fare against that same lineup. BYU is 14th and Utah 18th.

All in all, the Cougars have played a tougher set of opponents, but the Utes have been more dominant, more dynamic and more efficient.

It's close, especially if both teams are at full health and capacity.

The Hotline would give the Utes an ever-so-slight edge, largely because they have displayed more ways to score than BYU. And in the Holy War, points are scarce and big plays carry triple their normal value.

But Utah's advantage now might not translate to an advantage later.

In fact, there's a case to make that BYU has more upside based on current performance levels — that the Cougars are a slow build and the Utes were in midseason form in early September.

That's the trick for both coaches:

— How will Utah's Morgan Scalley continue to elicit substantive progress from a team already executing at an extremely high level?

— How will BYU's Kalani Sitake make the most of his personnel when the stakes are highest?

Of course, that moment is fast approaching. The Cougars welcome third-ranked Notre Dame in 10 days in what stands as the most significant game on any Big 12 team's schedule, with mammoth repercussions for the conference's pursuit of a second bid to the CFP.

As of now, this week, today, BYU does not look capable of toppling the Irish.

(If the Cougars aren't competitive, the Big 12's case for an at-large berth would weaken considerably.)

Our construct, with the neutral site east of Draper and the use of performance metrics and the wand waving that heals Martin and Glasker, is intended to lend context to the current state of play in Provo and Salt Lake City.

But on the afternoon of Oct. 17, there will be no need for hypotheticals. We'll know exactly where BYU stands relative to the best in the country.

A few weeks later, our imagined Holy War will give way to the real thing.

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