Hotline Week 6 picks: Oregon, USC, Washington and BYU all cover the spread

Welcome the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 7-5 last week and am 32-28-2 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.

Arizona coach Brent Brennan was having none of it. The long trip to Morgantown? The unusual practice routine with a Thursday flight? The early kickoff Saturday morning? No, no, no.

"If you let that be an excuse," he told reporters, "it will be ... And we are not in the excuse-making business."

But the Hotline is in the excuse-making business, if you view disrupted circadian rhythms and altered brain chemistry as excuses.

We don't. We view 1,800-mile flights across three time zones and 9 a.m. body-clock kickoffs as legitimate competitive obstacles in the post-realignment world of college football.

It's not easy for East Coast teams to fly west and play late, at 7:30 p.m. Pacific. But it's far more challenging for teams in the Pacific Time Zone to travel east, lose three hours and play at 12 p.m.

The data agrees.

For context on the RichRod Bowl, with Arizona facing its former coach, Rich Rodriguez, the Hotline examined how the former Pac-12 teams have fared in 9 a.m. kickoffs.

Of course, there is some nuance to the situation.

Should we consider Utah's results in early games played in the Eastern Time Zone? That's 10 a.m. for the Utes.

And what about Pacific Time Zone teams playing early games in Texas, which is only halfway across the country?

You could slice and dice the logistics a half-dozen ways.

We chose to keep things simple: How have the former Pac-12 schools fared in conference road games that start at 9 a.m. Pacific — exactly the circumstance Arizona is facing this weekend.

And in case there is any confusion, we did not evaluate the results based on wins and losses. The Hotline is no place for moral rectitude. We examined the results from a wagering perspective: How frequently did the traveling teams cover the point spread?

(Arizona is favored by three points, by the way.)

The research found that Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Colorado and BYU — yes, we included BYU — have covered the spread seven times, failed to cover the spread 14 times and pushed (tied) once.

Yep: The teams are 7-14-1 against the spread when playing at 9 a.m., or 33.3%.

Which is telling, because the spread is designed to create 50-50 outcomes.

Given that the sample size (22 games) isn't tiny and spans two-and-a-half seasons, that success rate of 33.3% suggests playing at 9 a.m. is, well, difficult.

That doesn't mean the Wildcats are doomed — that they won't cover the spread or, ahem, win the game.

In fact, Arizona managed the logistics very well the last time it faced this situation: the 30-24 victory at Cincinnati last November. Of course, the kickoff was technically at 10 a.m. because Daylight Saving Time had ended two weeks earlier and Arizona, which skips the annual clock change, was only two hours behind Eastern Time.

Did that hour matter? Not as much as Noah Fifita's efficient play from the pocket or Arizona's 50% conversion rate on third down or Cincinnati's two turnovers.

And if those dynamics are in play Saturday morning, the Wildcats should leave Morgantown with their fifth victory of the season despite their depleted receiver corps.

But that performance (covering the spread and winning the game) was unusual for the former Pac-12 teams. Body clock disruption is real, and we would not be surprised if the Wildcats are not themselves Saturday morning, at least in the first half.

The trend is your friend, and the trend is screaming from the rooftop: Take the points.

To the picks ...

(All times Pacific)

Iowa (+3.5) at Washington

Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox

Comment: The Hawkeyes are making a long trip on a short week after playing Michigan and Ohio State back-to-back, and quarterback Hank Brown's status is uncertain because of a bad shoulder. Advantage Huskies? Yes, for sure. This stands as the defining game of their season. We absolutely love the under (41.5). Pick: Washington

Washington State (+5.5) at Utah State

Kickoff: Friday at 6 p.m. on The CW

Comment: WSU first-year coach Kirby Moore has taken over play-calling duties, and we expect that to provide an immediate boost to what had been an inept unit. There are plenty of longer-term questions about the Cougars and their new coaching staff. But the defense is solid, and Utah State is flawed everywhere. Pick: Washington State

Iowa State (+10) at BYU

Kickoff: Friday at 7:15 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: The Cougars are without injured tailback LJ Martin but have their quarterback, Bear Bachmeier, plus a stout defense and enough moxie for two teams. Meanwhile, the Cyclones have a short week to recover from the emotional high of their win over West Virginia (45-42). One team is not like the other. Pick: BYU

Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska

Kickoff: 9 a.m on Fox

Comment: The Cornhuskers are undefeated but have played a soft schedule and, in no way, shape or form, are they ready for the Curt Cignetti smoke. Close early, not close late. Pick: Indiana

Arizona (-3) at West Virginia

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on TNT

Comment: The Wildcats shut down Cincinnati's ground game last week, but the Mountaineers have a better scheme and a more dynamic quarterback in Michael Hawkins. Add the long flight, early kickoff and the absence of receiver Tre Spivey (broken foot) and this constitutes, by far, the greatest challenge for Arizona since the Week 2 trip to Provo. Pick: West Virginia

UCF (+9.5) at Oklahoma State

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN2

Comment: The Knights lost at Houston last weekend and are back on the road to face a talented host that had two weeks to prepare. The Cowboys' competitive advantage is immense. Pick: Oklahoma State

UCLA (+11.5) at Oregon

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Comment: The Bruins have received a tad too much praise for their undefeated record considering all four victims have losing records. Yes, they are much improved under first-year coach Bob Chesney. But are they ready for Oregon's personnel and the Autzen Stadium bedlam? Not in our view, especially with an offense that is overly reliant on the running game. We like the Ducks, who are expected to start Dylan Raiola at quarterback. Pick: Oregon

Virginia Tech (-10) at Cal

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Network

Comment: The Bears changed offensive play-callers in the middle of their loss to UNLV last weekend and have major issues with their defense and discipline. (They are one of the most penalized teams in the country.) Also, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is in concussion protocol. But this is far too many points for a road team traveling across the country, especially given the rosters have comparable talent. Pick: Cal

Texas (-8) vs. Oklahoma (In Dallas)

Kickoff: 12:30 on ABC

Comment: The only reasons to side with the Sooners are the X factor present in every Red River showdown and their stout defense. All other components suggest a lopsided victory for the Longhorns. Pick: Texas

San Diego State (+14.5) at Oregon State

Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network

Comment: Call this a funny-feeling pick. We don't expect the Aztecs to win — they simply don't have enough offense or a healthy enough roster — but it feels like the Beavers are due to experience some misfortune and unexpected resistance. Pick: San Diego State

USC (+1.5) at Penn State

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Comment: Two desperate blue bloods in a White Out game in Beaver Stadium? Yes, please. The Trojans are in must-win mode to remain on track for the playoff, while the Nittany Lions have lost two in a row (to Wisconsin and Northwestern). The hosts have a roster filled with transfers from Iowa State. The visitors have a roster filled with blue chippers. Pick: USC

Georgia (+2) at Alabama

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: One of the most anticipated games of the year with Alabama's sensational quarterback, Keelon Russell, facing the mighty Bulldogs defense. If the College Football Playoff expands to 24 teams, showdowns like this would lose much of their do-or-die drama. Pick: Georgia

Hawaii (+20.5) at Arizona State

Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. on FS1

Comment: Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham has turned over play-calling responsibility to offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo in the wake of a blowout home loss to Baylor. That could help, but the Sun Devils will benefit greatly from being back in their routine after the massive disruption caused by the London trip. Pick: Arizona State

Kansas (+15) at Utah

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: The Utes are particularly difficult to handle in night games at Rice-Eccles. To that advantage, add two weeks to prepare, their ultra-dynamic offense and a highly flawed opponent. This shouldn't be close when the fourth quarter begins. Heck, it might not be close when the second quarter ends. Pick: Utah

Boise State (-6.5) at Fresno State

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW

Comment: A huge game in the rebuilt Pac-12 between two title contenders and at least one CFP hopeful (Boise State). The Bulldogs' defense is solid, but their offense is merely mediocre. And mediocre doesn't work against the well-balanced Broncos, who should take control in the fourth quarter. Pick: Boise State

Straight-up winners: Washington, Washington State, BYU, Indiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Texas, Oregon State, USC, Georgia, Arizona State, Utah and Boise State

Five-star special: Oklahoma State. There is perhaps no tougher assignment in the sport than playing back-to-back road games, with the second game against a team coming off a bye. That is UCF's fate against the Cowboys.