Pick Six Previews: Utah avoids upset in Cincinnati, rolls to 8-0 record

SALT LAKE CITY — Earlier in the day, BYU was upset by UCF in a double-overtime thriller and Texas Tech was also upset, leaving Utah as the last remaining undefeated team in the Big 12.

With ESPN's "College GameDay" in Salt Lake City, Rice-Eccles Stadium filled out its 100th straight sellout as Utah hosted No. 14 Houston under the lights. The teams moved the ball well — 798 combined yardage — but failed to convert into points. Houston slowly pulled ahead 10-0 and led into the third quarter.

Utah quarterback Devon Dampier took over the game with his legs, with several explosive runs, and eventually cashed in with a 22-yard touchdown late in the third quarter.

Houston got the ball back with two minutes left, down by 1 point, but Utah's do-it-all safety Jackson Bennee flew through the line and forced a fumble on Houston quarterback Conner Weigman. Utah recovered the fumble, and Dampier ran in the game-sealing score on the next snap.

Utah notched a ranked win, continued its nation-best 13-game win streak, and is one of just three undefeated teams in FBS — along with Miami and UCLA. The Utes are now back on the road at Cincinnati Saturday (1:45 p.m. MT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): Utah 56.5 (25th of 68 Power 4) | Cincinnati 42.8 (57th)
2025 season: Utah 72.3 (10th) | Cincinnati 44.7 (47th)
2026 season: Utah 71.6 (9th) | Cincinnati 49.3 (41st)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish third in the Big 12 race, and the Utes earned a preseason top-25 ranking with my No. 22 spot. They have surged up to No. 9 and are the Big 12 leaders heading into November. Game Grader currently has Utah projected as favorites in all remaining games.

Cincinnati just upset the defending Big 12 champions Texas Tech 37-24, a signature victory for Scott Satterfield in his fourth season at UC. The win moved them up to 10th in the Big 12 in Game Grader, 41st in Power Four.

In both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Cincinnati started strong but closed with a five-game losing streak both times. Perhaps their second-worst recruiting ranking in the Big 12 causes a lack of depth as the season rolls into November.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 16th of 68 Power 4
Cincinnati defense: 55th of 68 Power 4

In 2025, Dampier had a much bigger rushing workload and averaged 12 carries per game for 70 yards per game. Before Saturday's Houston game, those averages were down to nine carries and 33 yards, with coordinator Kevin McGiven mixing in more two-quarterback sets and distributing more carries to backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin.

Against Houston, Dampier ran for 150 yards on 15 carries and was the difference-maker. He did toss a forced pick in the fourth quarter, but more than made up for the mistake.

Cincinnati's defense ranked 54th of 68 Power Four teams last season, Satterfield made a coordinator change, and packed the starting lineup with transfers from the lower tiers (non-AQ, FCS, D2).

Seven games in, they are stuck in the same spot at 55th overall in my opponent-adjusted metric — and the pass defense grades out even worse.

Against West Virginia, they allowed 598 yards (7.6 per play) and Arizona put up 522 yards (6.7). Utah should have similar success with an even more dynamic offense than both of those Big 12 units. There will be more wide-open passing lanes for Dampier to connect with breakout star Braden Pegan to give Utah the decisive advantage on this side of the ball.

Cincinnati with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Cincinnati offense: 13th of 68 Power 4
Utah defense: 42nd of 68 Power 4

Back in the summer preview magazine, Cincinnati's team strength became clear: offensive line. They were a Joe Moore Award semifinalist last year, and last December their star trio made a joint announcement about their return to UC for 2026.

Joe Cotton, Evan Tengesdahl, and Taran Tyo are the headliners, and are even stronger than last year, ranking No. 2 in yards per carry, No. 5 in my OL run push, and are physically dominating Big 12 opponents.

Utah's run defense was the weakness in 2025, but so far it appears they have corrected their issues and it has become a strength. Houston averaged well over 200 rushing yards per game, but Utah neutralized the attack to just 86 rush yards (2.8 per carry).

The key will be keeping Cincinnati behind the chains, and forcing them into predictable passing downs like third-and-long. This is where Utah's aggressive man-coverage is elite, ranking No. 2 in completion rate and No. 5 in opposing QB rating.

Game prediction

It will be strength-on-strength when Cincinnati has the ball, and I think both sides will land some punches. Cole Tabb will get his 100 yards, and Utah will grab a couple takeaways.

But on the other side, Utah's offense against the UC defense is where Utah pulls away. Utah had the nation's longest streak of 30-point games — then went under that number the past two games — but will get back on track here.

There has been a clear trend of "hangover games" where a team pulling an AP top 10 upset comes out flat the following game, going just 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 against-the-spread this season. Cincinnati falls into that category here, fresh off their field-storming iconic win over the Big 12 champs. Utah is the more complete team and will get to 8-0.

Utah 31 | Cincinnati 20

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