Pick Six Previews: Iowa State to provide a tough test, but BYU will come out on top

PROVO — BYU won a defensive battle against its former WAC and Mountain West foe TCU in a 17-10 win in Fort Worth. BYU held a 10-7 lead into the fourth quarter when TCU's potential game-tying field goal landed short of the goalposts.

Then, with eight minutes left, quarterback Bear Bachmeier took over the game with his legs. He willed the offense down the field, and pulled off another "Bear on the Loose" game-sealing run as he plowed his way into the end zone to boost the score to 17-7.

This was BYU's first win in Fort Worth since 2006, and they notched a school-record third straight 4-0 start. Big 12 play continues as BYU hosts Iowa State Friday night (8:15 p.m. MT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | Iowa State 57.2 (24th)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | Iowa State 54.9 (32nd)
2026 season: BYU 65.4 (15th) | Iowa State 48.8 (50th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, and the Cougars earned a preseason top 25 ranking with my No. 17 spot. After its 4-0 start, BYU has moved up to No. 15.

Iowa State has exceeded my expectations so far. I selected them dead last in the Big 12 in the preview magazine, but they played Iowa to a field goal decision, and already notched a conference win by outlasting West Virginia 45-42 on Saturday.

This is certainly not the worst team in the league, and head coach Jimmy Rogers is doing a solid job given how much roster turnover they faced in the winter.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 31st of 68 Power 4
Iowa State defense: 53rd of 68 Power 4

Through 3.5 quarters, BYU was held to just 142 total yards. Bachmeier sealed the game with his legs, and provided another highlight reel touchdown, but overall this was a rough offensive output for BYU. He went just 11-of-24 for 62 passing yards, and even worse, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin was injured early and will now miss 4-6 weeks with a lower-body injury.

Iowa State played in a completely opposite style game on Saturday — an explosive, high-scoring 45-42 shootout over West Virginia. The game had five fourth-quarter lead changes, a combined 1,095 yards, and it was Iowa State's defense that finally made the game-winning stop when Beni Ngoyi forced a fumble and recovered it.

Even with Martin out, this is an opportunity to re-establish the run game for BYU. West Virginia rolled up 291 yards on the ground with its quarterback and running back both rushing for 140+ and two scores each. Iowa State is just 53rd in my opponent-adjusted defense stat, and bottom 10 in Power Four (59th) against the run.

After winning the line of scrimmage early in the game, Iowa State will put more defenders in the box; and this is where BYU can strike with a downfield shot. Iowa State is just 104th in FBS defending against explosive passing — this has Legend Glasker written all over it.

Iowa State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Iowa State offense: 36th of 68 Power 4
BYU defense: 7th of 68 Power 4

Iowa State running back Aiden Flora caught two touchdown passes and ran in three more scores for a 260-yard, five-touchdown performance in the win over West Virginia. That was Iowa State's best offensive output, but it is worth noting they did it against the lowest-rated defense in Power Four. West Virginia is dead last at 68th in my opponent-adjusted metric.

BYU is No. 7 in the same stat — No. 10 vs. the run and No. 23 vs. the pass. BYU will limit the offense and force quarterback Jaylen Raynor into mistakes, just like Iowa and Utah did to Iowa State in September. This side of the ball is a clear advantage for BYU.

Do-it-all linebacker Isaiah Glasker is out with an injury, but BYU signed the top transfer linebacker in the last cycle in All-ACC Cade Uluave. Plus, big defensive lineman Nusi Taumoepeau is rounding into a star after a disruptive game against TCU: five tackles, 1.5 for loss, and a sack.

Game prediction

Compared to last week's test at TCU, Iowa State has a more dynamic offense but not as stout of a defense. BYU will be able to hit more explosive plays and get a much more consistent run push, but Iowa State will test the BYU defense in more ways than TCU could.

Tempo and pace is intriguing in this game, as both teams rank in the top 10 of slowest offenses in seconds/play — BYU is second slowest, Iowa State is sixth slowest.

Look for another slower, lower-scoring game with BYU's defense emerging as the strongest unit. BYU will get to 5-0 in front of an electric Friday night atmosphere in LaVell Edwards Stadium.

BYU 24 | Iowa State 13

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