Utah reaches New Year's with one of its lowest snowpacks. Will the trend continue?

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah hasn't had an issue collecting moisture since the 2026 water year began in October, but the same can't be said about collecting snowpack at the start of the new calendar year.

Precipitation in Utah's mountains entered the new year above normal, but the state's average snowpack — at 57% of the median average at the start of New Year's Day — is hovering barely above its lowest New Year's level since modern-day snow collection tracking began in the 1980s, per Natural Resources Conservation Service data.

"We would normally be having a lot of snow by now, and we haven't had that," said Laura Haskell, drought coordinator for the Utah Division of Water Resources, before a storm that passed through the state after Christmas.

However, there's still plenty of time to collect snow, which accounts for about 95% of the state's water supply, and helps support a massive outdoor recreation industry in the state.

A near-historic low

New Year's Day is Utah's unofficial snowpack collection halfway point, as it falls between the water year start on Oct. 1 and the state's average peak in early April. This year's total of 3.2 inches of snow-water equivalent lands just above 2018 (3 inches), which remains the lowest New Year's Day collection since at least 1981.

Both of those years were abnormally warm, too. Utah broke record high mountain temperatures in parts of November and December this year, while 2018 still holds other daily temperature records over that time.

Yet, there's a stark contrast between storm activity between now and then. Utah's mountain sites collected an average of 8.6 inches of precipitation over the first three months of the water year, 105% of normal, and 4 inches above the 2018 total at New Year's. This shows the power of the warmer storms that have ended up in the state since October.

Atmospheric rivers hauling subtropical moisture accounted for the majority of storms that have impacted the state since October, but there haven't been many instances of "cold air built up" over western Canada falling into Utah, Sam Webber, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, explained earlier this month. This resulted in much higher snow lines, producing less snow in the state's valleys and mid-level snowpack areas.

It's left every Utah basin's snowpack below normal heading into the 2026 calendar year. The Northeast Uintas basin has the highest percentage of normal heading into the new year at 86% of its median average, while four basins are entering 2026 at record-low levels for this point in the year. It's as low as 10% within central Utah's Lower Sevier basin.

The same trend has played out throughout the West, resulting in the region's slowest first two snowpack months in at least 25 years. Recent storms have helped the region improve, but it still has a long way to go to get back to normal.

What about the second half?

A post-Christmas storm delivered Utah's mountains one of the biggest boosts so far. It dumped about 1½ feet of snow at Snowbird Resort, and strong numbers across other resorts that had struggled to open runs before the holiday. More storms arrived at the start of 2026, which can help chip away at its deficit, even if the storms brought back the pattern of valley rain and mountain snow.

Although New Year's is the unofficial halfway point, what happens in the first half doesn't mean trends will linger in the second half — the historically more productive end. Approximately 60% of the state's median peak collection comes after New Year's Day, while snow can linger even beyond the average early April peak.

"The snowpack usually doesn't peak until about the first of April, so ... we could have a couple of good storms and get caught up. It wouldn't be a problem," Haskell said.

What helps is that northern Utah is listed as having a higher probability of above-normal precipitation in January, while the rest of the state has "equal chances," meaning there's no clear signal whether it will be wetter or drier than normal, according to the weather service's Climate Prediction Center.

The center lists similar trends through the first three months of the year, with slightly higher odds for below-average precipitation in southern Utah. Most of Utah has "equal chances" when it comes to temperatures, which offers hope that there could be more cold storms thrown into the mix.

Utah's also in a good position this year with above-normal soil moisture levels statewide, which can improve snowmelt runoff efficiency in the spring with whatever snowpack the state can collect in the second half.

But a return to warm and dry conditions is what experts are hoping to avoid.

"The longer we have these dry conditions, the harder it is going to be to catch up," she said.

Contributing: Daniel Woodruff

Related topics