- Atmospheric river forecast to bring strong moisture to Utah, but not likely snow for most people on Christmas.
- Record warmth remains in the forecast through at least Christmas Eve.
- Stronger potential snow is forecast after Christmas, as temperatures drop.
SALT LAKE CITY — Dreaming of a white Christmas? You probably won't find it in most of Utah this year.
The Beehive State is in line to receive a massive boost from an atmospheric river moving across the West, but unseasonably warm temperatures should keep snow lines fairly high until colder air arrives, which could be right after the holiday, says KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson.
"(There will be) southerly flow as strong as ever at higher levels, so that's going to keep cold here out of here," he said. "I think our best chance for snow is increasing somewhat, late Friday into Saturday."
The National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory for parts of the southern and West Uinta mountains, which will last through Christmas Day.
Record-breaking warmth
A large low-pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast on Monday is helping to bring in rain and snow across wide swaths of the West this week, but it's also contributing to some record-high warmth. That's because Utah is caught between the low-pressure and a high-pressure system located over Mexico, which is causing strong winds from the southwest to flow into the state, Johnson explains.
Salt Lake City set a new high temperature record on Monday, breaking the previous record from 1964 when the temperature remained at 59 degrees Fahrenheit at the stroke of midnight. Cedar City, Kanab, Provo and Tooele also shattered previously daily records.
Salt Lake City already broke another record on Tuesday, and could break records through Thursday, including its warmest Christmas Day on record, which is 59 degrees set in 1955. It's a continuation of a warm, potentially record-setting month thus far.
A wet Christmas
But things are forecast to change by Christmas Eve, Wednesday, and that will last for most of the rest of the week.
"We'll start to see some of that energy from the West Coast move, but it's going to come in gradual waves — periodical waves, showers ... headed into the weekend," Johnson said, adding that Christmas travel might be tricky, especially for people traveling within the state or areas west of Utah.
A wave of storms is expected to arrive in southwest Utah around late Tuesday and early Wednesday, before showers expand to central and northern Utah later in the day. Showers are expected to continue on Christmas Eve night and into early Christmas Day, Thursday, while expanding into eastern Utah, too, but the snow line will likely remain closer to 9,000 feet elevation because of the storm's warmth.
Showers are expected to become more scattered as Christmas Day continues, potentially leading to some sunshine during the afternoon.
More widespread showers are expected to return after Christmas, as the core of the low-pressure system moves toward Utah by mid-Friday. It will mix colder air into the system, dropping the snow line closer to 7,500 feet elevation or lower, he said. He adds that there's a slight potential for snow in bench areas and possibly the valley floors on Saturday, before the system clears out.
Storm accumulations
KSL Weather models suggest that some communities have the potential to receive a half-inch to an inch of precipitation or more by the end of Friday, while mountain locations could end up with multiple inches of water.
How much of that ends up falling as snow is a little trickier to determine because of the temperatures. Areas above 8,500 feet elevation in the southern mountains and above 9,000 feet in the West Uinta mountains may end up with 6 to 12 inches of snow by the end of Christmas, according to the weather service's advisory.
Many variables can factor into the snow accumulations for areas near or below the estimated snow line. For instance, one model lists Alta as likely receiving a trace to 6 inches of snow by early Friday — with a low chance for higher totals. Anything after early Friday depends on how much moisture is left in the system as it moves eastward.
KSL Weather models project that the state's mountain elevation areas could end up with 8 to 16 inches of snow by the end of the week, but that again depends on different variables. Wasatch Front and northern Utah communities could receive a quarter of an inch to 1 inch, as well.
The storm also has the potential to deliver multiple inches of water in the Pine Valley mountains, as well as strong totals close to an inch within southwest Utah communities.
Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center.
Other records in view?
If it doesn't snow at Salt Lake City International Airport this week, Utah's capital could set a few more records. The city has yet to officially record any measurable snow this season, inching closer to the latest into the season to pick up snow, which is Jan. 2, set in 1891.
Only two other times has it not snowed before Christmas in Salt Lake City, but those other times — 1939 and 1943 — each ended with snow on the holiday. If history doesn't repeat itself, Salt Lake City could break another record: the longest stretch without any measurable snow, which dates back to last season.
The city's last measurable snowfall came on March 18, and should the snowless streak continue into early 2026, it could break a century-old record of 290 consecutive days without snow.
"It's very rare that we don't have any snow through the month of December," National Weather Service meteorologist Sam Webber told KSL earlier this month.
The lack of valley snow, he added, is largely tied to the same pattern affecting the West's mountain snowpack. Warmer Pacific storms and a lack of cold air built up over western Canada resulted in fewer snow events, which is essentially what's expected again for Christmas.
