Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
PROVO — The "Holy War" is the most underrated rivalry in college football, and the 2024 edition was one for the ages.
Despite the preseason polls expecting the opposite, it was an undefeated BYU team facing a middling Utah in the "spoiler" role in front of the largest crowd in Rice-Eccles Stadium history.
BYU continued its perfect start to the season with a dramatic scoring drive in the final minute to setup a walk-off field goal attempt. Will Ferrin nailed it, BYU won 22-21, and they added another chapter to the rivalry's legacy.
The game started with a surprise, as Utah debuted its third-starting quarterback and second offensive coordinator. Utah closed the first half with three consecutive touchdown drives, but one was immediately negated by a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown by Keelan Marion.
BYU flipped the script after halftime, thanks to a suffocating defense that held Utah to five punts and an interception. Jake Retzlaff led a 95-yard touchdown drive to draw within 2 points, and then BYU got one final chance with two minutes remaining.
After four straight incompletions, it appeared Utah had won the game, but a flag came in — a defensive holding on the fourth-down stop — that extended BYU's final drive. Ferrin's kick silenced all 54,383 in attendance — well, except one, as Utah's athletic director took the microphone and claimed "this game was absolutely stolen from us" and that the referees had a "disgusting performance."
BYU stands as one of the final four undefeated teams in FBS, and one of the few with multiple wins over currently ranked teams. They are ranked No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings and must win two of their final three games to lock a bid to the Big 12 title game.
First up, Kansas in LaVell Edwards Stadium (8:15 p.m. MST, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Kansas 42.1 (56th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Kansas 62.0 (20th)
2024 season: BYU 71.8 (11th) | Kansas 52.0 (35th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
Kansas leads the nation with five, one-score losses. They are better than their 3-6 record would indicate, and Game Grader has them at 35th of 70 Power Four teams. Kansas and BYU only share one common opponent — Kansas State — who Kansas played to a virtual tie and lost in the final minute.
Last week, Kansas dominated another top Big 12 contender Iowa State.
BYU has shattered all preseason expectations with their perfect 9-0 start and has climbed all the way to No. 11 in my 2024 Game Grader for their highest spot in this metric since their 2020 team.
Kansas with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Kansas offense (2024): 2nd of 16 Big 12 (7th passing, 1st rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 9th rushing)
Kansas returned 10 starters from last year's top-10 unit, but still two huge questions remained. First, would their schematic advantages continue after their offensive mastermind Andy Kotelnicki was poached by Penn State? And second, could injury-prone quarterback Jalon Daniels go the distance without the reliable backup Jason Bean behind him?
The scheme has remained dynamic, Daniels has stayed healthy, and they are still in the top 15 of my opponent-adjusted, per-play stat. But that metric doesn't account for turnovers, and Daniels' nine interceptions are the third-worst in the Big 12.
After placing fifth, first, and second on the Big 12 QB Rating leaderboard the past three years, Daniels is currently down at 10th in 2024.
Instead, the run game has remained dominant. Last week, Kansas scored on six straight drives, and Devin Neal broke the school's career rushing record. The dual-threat Daniels has added 50+ rushing yards and a touchdown in three straight games.
BYU has held the Big 12's top ranking in my opponent-adjusted, per-play defense stat for most of the season. Since the halfway point, they have dipped a bit in rush defense, falling from fifth to ninth, which could be a potential weakness against a top-rated Kansas rushing attack.
In the pass game, BYU will continue its takeaway surge (third best in Power Four) and pick off Daniels.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 8th of 16 Big 12 (12th passing, 6th rushing)
Kansas defense (2024): 13th of 16 Big 12 (7th passing, 7th rushing)
Retzlaff and the Cougars offense came through when it mattered most, leading three second-half scoring drives, including the clutch survival drive in the final minute. BYU currently ranks No. 29 nationally in explosive, long-yardage passing, while the Kansas defense is all the way down at No. 118 at defending them.
Advantage BYU, and if this game turns into a higher-scoring shootout, they will be able to keep pace.
When comparing against opponent averages, the Kansas defense has not held a single Big 12 opponent below their per-play averages. Only the league-worst Oklahoma State defense shares that distinction.
Game prediction
I have been very impressed by BYU so far this season, and they are well-positioned for both a Big 12 title appearance and playoff berth. With three remaining Big 12 games, if BYU wins two they are guaranteed a trip to Dallas. They will knock one off the to-do list here Saturday night.
BYU 34 | Kansas 30
