Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — I am based out of Eastern Pennsylvania, but after launching my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I quickly took notice of a passionate rivalry out in Utah.
BYU and Utah both play physically tough football, they feature top-notch player development, their stadiums are packed every week, the fans Jump or Roar on third downs, the television broadcast cameras shake on big plays, and they are consistently underrated and overlooked by the national media.
And against each other, this is a true 365-day rivalry. Sometimes I am convinced fans follow the other program as closely as their own.
It has been an honor to contribute weekly game preview articles to KSL.com for both teams the past few seasons, and this 2024 matchup has been long-awaited as the programs are now back in the same conference for the first time since 2010.
The roles are reversed from the preseason expectations that had projected newcomer Utah as the consensus pick to win the Big 12, and had BYU picked toward the bottom.
Instead, the Cougars have surged to a perfect 8-0 start with a turnover-hungry defense and a top-25 scoring offense. Utah tumbled to a 4-4 start, had a midseason coordinator change, and has struggled offensively without their veteran quarterback Cam Rising.
Both teams are coming off their second bye weeks, and the goals and trajectories of their seasons could not be more opposite. But for the sixty minutes under the lights in Rice-Eccles Stadium Saturday night (8:15 p.m. MST, ESPN) this game transcends rankings or playoff projections.
This one is pure college football rivalry.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Utah 63.6 (12th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Utah 52.3 (35th)
2024 season: BYU 73.1 (12th) | Utah 47.9 (44th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
BYU has shattered all preseason expectations with their perfect 8-0 start and has climbed all the way to No. 12 in my 2024 Game Grader for their highest spot in this metric since their 2020 team. Utah's three-year average from 2021 to 2023 was No. 12, but this year they have fallen all the way to No. 44 of 70 teams.
If they finish in that range, it would be Utah's lowest-rated season since 2013.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (16th passing, 15th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 7th rushing)
Rising's injury in the second game of the season altered the entire season for Utah. Without their two-time conference champion under center, they turned to a true freshman Isaac Wilson (yes, Zach's brother) and then suffered a midseason coordinator change as longtime play-caller Andy Ludwig resigned.
Micah Bernard has been a workhorse at running back, but the offensive line's run push (No. 84) is well below their standard. There are plenty of playmakers on the outside and at tight end, but the play-calling became too predictable, and it seemed that the offense was handcuffed by youth at quarterback.
Mike Bajakian took over the coordinator role, and Utah is now off a bye week, meaning there could be some new looks; but going off of their first eight games, this is one of the worst-performing offenses in Power Four.
Meanwhile, BYU's defense is ranked in the top 10 of my opponent-adjusted metric — fourth in pass defense — and is one of the best units nationally at generating turnovers.
Jay Hill deserves some looks for the Broyles Award for the nation's top assistant, because this defense is completely different from the unit he inherited in 2023. If the trends continue, you can count on BYU's defense picking off Wilson (or whoever is under center) a few times and giving favorable field position back to the Cougars offense.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (8th passing, 5th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 4th of 16 Big 12 (3rd passing, 10th rushing)
This is the first top 25 defense BYU has faced this season. Their next-highest rated opposing defense so far was SMU, who limited BYU to 18 points and their lowest output all year.
There are two specific areas that will determine who wins this side of the ball: staying ahead of the chains on first down and hitting on explosive pass plays. In my opponent-adjusted numbers, BYU is top 25 in rushing offense, while Utah's rushing defense is in the bottom 20.
BYU must generate a consistent, productive ground game on early downs to make their third downs manageable because Utah is No. 2 nationally on third downs, allowing opponents to convert just 25% of them.
The vertical pass game is the other differentiator. BYU is in the top 25 of explosive, long-yardage passing, while Utah's defense is just 87th nationally defending against them. Everything else about Utah's pass defense ranks highly, but their aggressive scheme leaves them over-exposed to long balls.
Game prediction
What a difference two months makes. Originally, we all thought this would feature a Big 12 title bound Utah team and a BYU squad fighting for bowl eligibility. Instead, it is BYU in the driver's seat and Utah acting as the "spoilers."
Look for BYU to generate a few interceptions off of Wilson, and for Retzlaff to hit on a few long-yard explosive passes. This has become one of my favorite rivalries in college football and Saturday night will not disappoint.
BYU 26 | Utah 17
