Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah fans are wishing we could just rewind to the Baylor game and replay the season from there.
Picked as the preseason consensus favorite to win the Big 12 and enter the playoff, Utah started 4-0 but their two-time champion quarterback Cam Rising was injured in the Baylor game and the offense has been in free-fall since.
The Utes lost their sixth straight game Saturday in Boulder, losing to Colorado 49-24. The game started with Utah picking off star quarterback Shedeur Sanders, but it was all Colorado from there.
Sanders posted 340 passing yards, Heisman-candidate Travis Hunter scored a touchdown and caught an interception off a deflected deep ball, and Utah allowed a punt return touchdown for the second straight week.
Offensive struggles were expected with the youth at quarterback and a midseason coordinator change. But the defensive collapse is uncharacteristic here. The 49 points are the most allowed by a Utah defense since 2014.
This marks Utah's worst losing streak since 2002 — before coach Kyle Whittingham took over — and they must now win their final two games to get back to bowl season. Saturday night Utah hosts No. 22 Iowa State (5:30 p.m. MST, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Iowa State 58.3 (21st)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Iowa State 52.4 (33rd)
2024 season: Utah 44.1 (49th) | Iowa State 71.0 (11th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked Iowa State to finish sixth out of 16. Utah has vastly under-performed against those expectations.
As for Iowa State, they opened up with a dramatic 20-19 win over rival Iowa, which set into motion a 7-0 start to the season. They lost to Texas Tech by 1 and to Kansas by 9, rallied last week with a 34-17 win over Cincinnati, and remain in the national top 15 thanks to large margins of victory.
Iowa State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Iowa State offense (2024): 7th of 16 Big 12 (10th passing, 7th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 5th of 16 Big 12 (3rd passing, 9th rushing)
Against Colorado, Utah's defense was out of position, often took poor pursuit angles, and missed a ton of tackles. This was not the Morgan Scalley defense that we have seen over the past decade. They will need to play more disciplined football this week against an Iowa State offense that burns its opponents on play-action passing and quarterback mobility.
Utah allowed four Colorado receivers to gain over 50 yards, and the duo at Iowa State is arguably better.
They are more productive as a pair: Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins are both in the Big 12's top five and have posted a combined 1,795 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Rocco Becht is fifth on the Big 12 leaderboard for QB rating and has added five touchdowns on the ground.
Over the first half of the season, Utah ranked No. 1 in my opponent-adjusted defensive metric, but place just ninth in October and November. This is a tough opponent to break that slide.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2024): 16th of 16 Big 12 (16th passing, 15th rushing)
Iowa State defense (2024): 6th of 16 Big 12 (1st passing, 15th rushing)
No one could have predicted this. Utah had a star-packed roster and conference title aspirations; instead, Utah's offense fell to dead last in the Big 12 and saw an October coordinator change.
Injuries were a theme again like last season. Now three quarterbacks have suffered season-ending injuries, and two of the top three pass-catchers are also knocked out (Brant Kuithe and Money Parks).
Freshman Isaac Wilson's struggles continued as he threw more picks than interceptions against Colorado. In fact, he is the only Big 12 starting quarterback to throw more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10) this season, and ranks dead last in QB rating.
Dorian Singer finally scored his first touchdown of the season, which is a statistical anomaly considering he is one of the league's best receivers and is in the top 10 of yardage.
Utah needs to jump out to a lead, or at least avoid a large halftime deficit, so that they can play their run-heavy ball-control offense. Iowa State is second-worst in the Big 12 against the run, and workhorse running back Micah Bernard has been the best player on this offense.
That has to be the formula, because Iowa State is No. 1 against the pass with their elite secondary and masterful 3-3-3 "dime stack" scheme by coordinator Jon Heacock.
Game prediction
This matchup features two above-average defenses, but the discrepancy on the other side of the ball is the difference. Utah's offense is broken and is the clear-cut worst unit here. That continues to limit the team's ceiling, even if the defense breaks out of its statistical skid.
Iowa State 28 | Utah 17
