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PROVO — BYU started the 2024 season in style with a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois, a 2023 FCS playoff team.
Unlike last year's low-scoring opener, BYU posted 527 yards of offense with three touchdowns passing and two more on the ground. Not only was the offense balanced, but BYU's overall performance was balanced with an effective offense and swarming defense.
The +300 yardage differential and 28-point margin indicate BYU completed their task of handling an FCS foe.
The schedule heats up quickly, as the Cougars travel to Dallas to take on the defending AAC champions — and new Power Four members — SMU. As 28-point favorites in Week 0, SMU needed a 16-0 fourth quarter to fend off Nevada's upset bid. Then, last week they posted a 59-7 rout over FCS opponent Houston Christian.
SMU is making the transition up from the non-AQ to the Power Four level as members of the expanded ACC. These former WAC conference mates now pair up 30 years later as Power Four programs. This matchup gets national television coverage Friday night (5 p.m. MDT, ESPN2), and I will be on site at Gerald J. Ford Stadium to (finally) see my first live BYU game.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | SMU 53.2 (29th)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | SMU 59.2 (23rd)
2024 preseason: BYU (63rd) | SMU (38th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and again to No. 50 in 2022.
Last season during the Big 12 transition year, BYU fell all the way to the bottom 10 of Power Four teams.
SMU won the non-AQ AAC last year with an 11-3 season, but they lost all three times against Power Four opponents. Despite the 11-win season last year, I am predicting a step back in their transition season, as the weekly toll of Power Four opponents weighs on the newcomers.
In my annual preseason magazine Pick Six Previews, I forecasted SMU to finish seventh in the ACC and 38th of 70 in the Power Four.
SMU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
SMU offense (2023): 36th of 70 Power Four
BYU defense (2023): 48th of 70 Power Four
Head coach Rhett Lashlee's so-called "power spread" offense put up 39 points per game in 2023, and they placed toward the top of every passing metric last year. Quarterback Preston Stone returns as one of the ACC's best signal callers, and the entire group of offensive skill players are back.
The biggest uncertainty in fall camp was along the line of scrimmage with three line starters departing; but like their defensive line, the staff packed Power Four transfers into the offensive trenches.
Penalties slowed down SMU in the opener, but they rallied Saturday with 595 yards of offense and 59 points.
BYU's new defensive scheme did not translate onto the stat sheet last year; however, the pass rush impressed in the 2024 season opener. They notched two sacks, seven tackles for loss, and Jakob Robinson grabbed a pick.
The pass defense held Southern Illinois to just a 50% completion rate and only 108 passing yards. The only downside was against their scrambling quarterback who rushed for 137 yards and two scores (10 yards per carry), but SMU's Stone is less involved in the run game.
The step up in opponent talent, especially at the skill positions, will be a striking difference from the FCS opener and we'll learn more about BYU's year-over-year progress Friday night.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2023): 69th of 70 Power Four
SMU defense (2023): 10th of 70 Power Four
Jake Retzlaff emerged from the offseason quarterback battle and shined in the opener, completing 20-of-30 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns. BYU did an excellent job stretching the field vertically, and they took several long shots downfield.
Stylistically, this was an improvement from last year where BYU ranked just 86th nationally in 30+ yard pass plays. After Saturday's dynamic start, they now rank 13th in the same category.
Chase Roberts was Retzlaff's favorite receiver Saturday, as his eight targets were more than the other three receivers combined. Roberts posted 108 yards, Jojo Phillips scored on a 57-yarder, and running backs LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati shared the rushing workload with 13 carries apiece.
BYU still lost the per-carry rushing battle, and the line only mustered up 3.8 yards per carry, which is a bottom 10 number among the FBS teams that played against FCS defenses. They will be tested Friday night against a stout SMU front seven that placed in the top 20 of all 15 of my defensive stat categories in 2023.
From that unit, eight starters return, plus the staff added an incredible eight Power Four defensive linemen from the transfer portal. They are attempting to ease the transition to the Power level, and size and quality depth in the trenches is a differentiator.
That defensive line forced a safety in the fourth quarter to spark their comeback win over Nevada. Their linebacker trio returns intact from 2023, and their safety duo — Jonathan McGill and Isaiah Nwokobia — is one of the best in the ACC.
Game prediction
The most important spot that needs improvement in BYU's second year at the Power Four level is their strength and depth along both lines of scrimmage. BYU was fine against their FCS opponent, but SMU is a notch up, especially the defensive front seven.
SMU 28 | BYU 20
