Estimated read time: 7-8 minutes
The Pac-12 Conference title game is sold out. There are tickets available, but only on the secondary market. The Dec. 1 championship game — the final conference game as we know it — is going to be a doozy.
Five teams remain in the hunt for a berth to Las Vegas with two weeks left on the regular-season schedule. Oregon and Washington hold the keys to their own fate, but as an old editor of mine liked to say: "Your destiny doesn't always fall in your lap, sometimes you gotta reach out and grab it by the neck."
Arizona, Oregon State and Utah must seize their fates to stay in contention. It so happens that the Wildcats and Utes play each other, so at least one team will be eliminated on Saturday. And the Beavers play their final home game of the 2023 season against undefeated Washington.
Pac-12 title game scenarios:
- WASHINGTON: Clinches spot in Las Vegas with a win on Saturday at Oregon State OR Utah win over Arizona.
- OREGON: Clinches a spot with a win over Arizona State AND Washington win over Oregon State AND Utah win over Arizona.
- OREGON STATE: Stays in contention for a spot with a win over Washington OR wins by BOTH Utah over Arizona AND Arizona State over Oregon.
- ARIZONA: Must beat Utah to stay in contention.
- UTAH: Must beat Arizona AND have BOTH Washington beat Oregon State AND Arizona State beat Oregon to stay in contention.
Got it?
I went 3-3 against the spread last Saturday and posted a 5-1 record picking the conference games straight up.
My 2023 straight-up record: 63-14 (82%)
My 2023 season record vs. the spread: 36-31-1 (54%)
Onto my picks, thoughts and predictions for Week 12 …
Colorado at Washington State (7:30 p.m. Friday, FS1):
Both teams are in a terrible slide. Colorado has lost four straight games. WSU hasn't won since Week 4, losing six in a row. Biggest question: Will Colorado's offensive line do a better job at protecting quarterback Shedeur Sanders this week?
Sanders is the most-sacked quarterback in major college football (45 times), but he ranks second in passing yards per game (320.2) and is No. 11 in completion percentage (70.1%). If he stays upright, the Buffs are better for it.
Colorado has rushed for only 699 yards this season. The Buffaloes are averaging a lowly 2.3 yards per carry. Washington State isn't much better. The Cougars have 832 rushing yards and are getting only 3.0 yards per carry.
This is a close game with 80-plus combined passing attempts. As much as I don't trust WSU right now, I lean toward the home team in this Friday-night matchup. I'll take the Cougars to win… but barely.
The line: Washington State is favored by 4.5 points.
The pick: WSU 31, Colorado 30
Utah at Arizona (11:30 a.m. Saturday, Pac-12 Network):
The Wildcats are enjoying a fun season, and need to beat Utah to stay alive in the Pac-12 Conference title race. Also, Utah needs a win. I like that this game kicks off early. It eliminates the scoreboard watching. The loser will be eliminated from title-game contention before Oregon-ASU and Washington-Oregon State kickoff.
Utah is coming off its third loss of the season. The Utes have been defeated by Oregon State, Oregon and, last week, Washington. Utah is a response-driven team with great locker room culture and a lot of pride. In the aftermath of the losses to the Beavers and Ducks, Utah's very next performance was impressive. I expect Kyle Whittingham's team to bounce back with a road victory. Utah's path to the title game is super narrow, but the program won't quit.
The line: Arizona is favored by 1 point.
The pick: Utah 31, Arizona 24
UCLA at USC (12:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC):
UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond and football coach Chip Kelly need couples therapy. As one fellow Pac-12 athletic director told me this week: "That AD-coach relationship is icy." After losing to Arizona State, Kelly's week was filled with rumors and unsourced reports about his job security.
Kelly's record at UCLA: 33-33.
The Bruins finished 9-3 last season. Kelly got a raise and contract extension that pays him through 2027. If UCLA fires the football coach at the end of this season, it would be on the hook for $8 million in future pay and might lose five-star freshman quarterback Dante Moore in the transfer portal. Remember, the Bruins justified the move to the Big Ten by claiming the athletic department was teetering on financial ruin.
I realize I'm not really handicapping the game. I'm just pointing out that there's a soap opera potentially developing in the background of it. Do the Bruins hear the outside noise?
The line: USC is favored by 6.5 points.
The pick: USC 38, UCLA 24
Oregon at ASU (1 p.m. Saturday, FOX):
Dan Lanning and Kenny Dillingham are friends and former co-workers. The two youngest coaches in the Pac-12 face off in a game that has some fun storylines. The 37-year-old Lanning is hunting for a College Football Playoff berth. The 33-year-old Dillingham is trying to McGyver his way through the season.
Last week, ASU employed the "swinging gate" on offense in a 17-7 road win vs. UCLA. The Sun Devils essentially lined up the entire offensive line, with the exception of the center, on one side of the field. It left the ASU quarterback and center, and a running back, unprotected. Most of all, it caused UCLA to substitute out some of its defensive lineman.
"I don't know if you saw the fire-breathing dragons we saw on defense. Let's just take those guys and put them on the sideline," Dillingham said. "If we can put three fire-breathing dragons over there on the sideline 20 times a game, we're going to do it."
Don't be surprised if ASU employs creative tactics against Oregon's defense. Dillingham might just decide to play his tight end at quarterback and have some fun that way. The Ducks are comfortable playing in space and too athletic for Arizona State.
The line: Oregon is favored by 23.5 points.
The pick: Oregon 35, ASU 14
Cal at Stanford (3:30 p.m. Saturday, Pac-12 Network):
The Bears are just a little better all-around than Stanford. I like Cal's offense and think Stanford (3-7) didn't look good last weekend. Cal is still in play for bowl eligibility. The Bears (4-6) need to win the "Big Game" and then beat UCLA in the regular-season finale to get to six wins.
I like what we've seen from Stanford's first-year coach Troy Taylor. He's going to be better in subsequent seasons. But Cal gets the rivalry win and covers the spread.
The line: Cal is favored by 6.5 points.
The pick: Cal 31, Stanford 21
Washington at Oregon State (4:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC):
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is going to make some big plays. It's what he does. And the Huskies are going to score points in this game. But I don't think the Las Vegas bettors are wrong to make the Beavers (8-2) a favorite in this one, even against an undefeated opponent.
This game is a Super Bowl for Oregon State and an opportunity for the Beavers to underscore their "Pac-2" plight in a very public way. And OSU is 17-1 in its last 18 games at Reser Stadium.
Oregon State will run the ball effectively and control the line of scrimmage. But Penix Jr. is going to make some haymaker throws. The Beavers will need to endure those big plays to stay in this game.
Home favorites are 86-7 in the Pac-12 since the start of the 2022 season. The Beavers are 10-0 in that span when favored and playing at home. This is the last "Pac-12" game as we know it at Reser Stadium. It will be a standing-room-only crowd. Isn't it the most Pac-12 thing ever that OSU would win?
The line: Oregon State is favored by 2.5 points.
The pick: Oregon State 34, Washington 31
Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.
