Pick Six Previews: BYU to get back in the win column with a 'bounce back' against ASU

PROVO — In a span of eight days, BYU got the full college football experience. They hosted ESPN's "College GameDay" as the epicenter of the college football universe, hosted its first-ever top-10 matchup, defeated No. 2 Notre Dame in epic fashion, and rose to a No. 2 ranking themselves.

And then in the blink of an eye, they were upset by UCF in a roller-coaster double-overtime loss.

Bear Bachmeier completed just 50% of passes, the defense allowed a season-worst 463 yards, and still BYU had a shot to win. In a tie game in the final minute, UCF faced a fourth-and-goal but decided to go for the touchdown instead of a short field goal. BYU made the stop, but then UCF, again, got the ball within field goal range in the final seconds.

BYU's Faletau Satuala blocked the field goal, but controversy ensued as UCF's kicker recovered the kick and there were flags thrown for an apparent facemask penalty. Somehow when the dust settled there were no penalties and overtime commenced.

In the second overtime, UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw his third touchdown, and BYU failed to match when the final pass was dropped in the end zone to lose the 39-31 thriller.

BYU looks to bounce back by hosting Arizona State Saturday (1:30 p.m. MT, FOX) before the Holy War next week.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | Arizona State 51.3 (31st)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | Arizona State 53.1 (36th)
2026 season: BYU 66.3 (14th) | Arizona State 46.5 (46th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, and the Cougars earned a preseason top 25 ranking with my No. 17 spot. After its 6-0 start, BYU moved up to No. 11, but are down a few spots after the UCF loss.

I selected Arizona State to finish seventh in the Big 12 and they are 4-3 overall. They won the London game against Kansas despite being outgained by 200 yards, and lost big to Texas A&M (by 28), Baylor (by 36), and Texas Tech (by 28).

On Saturday, they landed a solid Big 12 win over Kansas State (28-17); and after all of that, Arizona State checks in below-average at 46th of 68 Power Four in Game Grader.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 12th of 68 Power 4
Arizona State defense: 52nd of 68 Power 4

BYU wasted too many possessions, with four three-and-outs, and a costly Bachmeier interception before halftime that UCF took back for points. The offense is really missing All-Big 12 running back LJ Martin; and against UCF, they only ripped off one explosive run.

They have an opportunity to fix the run game against an Arizona State defense that has struggled all season. ASU ranks 95th in yards per carry allowed, 100th in limiting long-yardage runs, and is in the bottom 15 of all three of my opponent-adjusted defense metrics: 52nd overall, 54th rushing, 54th passing.

In 2024 and 2025, BYU and Arizona State were the only teams in the Big 12 to stack top-25 defenses, but Arizona State had to go with a total two-deep reset this offseason, and the new wave of transfers have not lived up to the standards.

Look for Preston Rex to break a few explosive runs, and for Bachmeier to punch in touchdowns on their red zone trips.

Arizona State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arizona State offense: 48th of 68 Power 4
BYU defense: 8th of 68 Power 4

Arizona State had to go with an offseason rebuild on offense, too. Their quarterback problems came to a breaking point the past few weeks as original starter (Kentucky's 2025 starter) Cutter Boley was booed off the field after a poor start (1-of-5 for 7 yards).

The Sun Devils then rotated the veteran Mikey Keene (10-of-20 for 160) and four-star freshman Jake Fette (3-of-6 for 45) last week. This week, Keene is battling through injuries, so it should be the talented youngster Fette.

Speaking of backup quarterbacks, UCF's Jenkins put up nearly 300 passing yards and three touchdowns against the BYU defense last week. I do not see an encore.

BYU's defense has shown their true strength for the better part of three seasons now, and the UCF performance looks like a "hangover" outlier coming off the Notre Dame win. This season, teams that beat an AP top 10 team come out the following week slow and are just 5-7 straight-up (4-8 against-the-spread) in those spots after the big win.

Look for BYU to get back to their usual dominance and neutralize the third-string quarterback. Arizona State does have a breakout freshman running back Cardae Mack, who has exploded with a pair of 150+ yard games and six touchdowns the past three games, but I trust the BYU front seven.

Game prediction

This has the feel of a classic "bounce back" game where BYU refocuses, corrects the issues from the UCF loss, and lands a solid Big 12 win to get their league title and Playoff goals back on schedule.

BYU 31 | Arizona State 17

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