Pick Six Previews: In offensive showcase, Utah's defense to get it done over Houston

SALT LAKE CITY — Through five games, Utah was the only team in America to be 5-0 and win all their games by 14+ points. The blowout streak ended Saturday night in Boulder; but most importantly, Utah survived a late push from Colorado to win 27-24 and get to 6-0 for the first time since 2015.

"It's not always pretty, and this was definitely not pretty and not clean, but we did enough," said head coach Morgan Scalley.

The game was going as expected at halftime with Utah up 13-0 and Colorado having more penalty yards than total yards. Colorado, and former Utah starting quarterback Isaac Wilson, came out of the break with three straight scoring drives to get within a field goal.

Utah boosted the lead to 10 points on Devon Dampier's touchdown pass to Braden Pegan with just three minutes left, but Colorado cashed in a quick touchdown, and actually got the ball back in the final seconds. But Utah finished off the close win.

ESPN's "College GameDay" stayed in the Beehive State for consecutive weeks after their Provo show for BYU's historic win over No. 2 Notre Dame. They will be in Salt Lake City for a ranked Big 12 matchup as Utah hosts Houston in a significant game for the Big 12 race (8:15 p.m. MT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): Utah 56.5 (25th of 68 Power 4) | Houston 41.5 (59th)
2025 season: Utah 72.3 (10th) | Houston 53.9 (35th)
2026 season: Utah 70.5 (10th) | Houston 68.1 (13th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish third in the Big 12 race, and the Utes earned a preseason top-25 ranking with my No. 22 spot. They have surged up to #10 and are in a dead heat for the Big 12's top spot with BYU. Game Grader currently has Utah projected as favorites in all remaining games.

Willie Fritz signed an excellent transfer class heading into 2025 and surged to a surprise 10-win season. He did it again in 2026, as they again signed veteran transfers from the non-AQ and FCS levels and are 6-1 overall (3-1 Big 12).

Houston lost by 2 points at Texas Tech on a failed 2-point conversion that came up a few inches short. They rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat UCF and won a shootout against Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 16th of 68 Power 4
Houston defense: 49th of 68 Power 4

Utah's FBS-best streak of consecutive 30+ point games was snapped against Colorado after a slow second half that featured four punts, two Dampier interceptions, and points left on the board due to red zone breakdowns.

Still, the offense got another big game from Pegan (8 catches for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns) and a breakout performance from Creed Whittemore who made a pair of explosive plays that set up the second-half scores.

Utah's offense has the advantage over the Houston defense, which ranks just 49th of 68 Power Four teams in my opponent-adjusted defense stat — 42nd against the pass.

Look for more downfield shots to Whittemore and Pegan here, similar to how Oklahoma State aired it out on them last week. Utah will need to get back to its creative run game that Kevin McGiven flashed in September, because Houston only allows 83 rushing yards per game (sixth in FBS) and 3.2 per carry (27th).

Houston with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Houston offense: 7th of 68 Power 4
Utah defense: 46th of 68 Power 4

Conner Weigman threw five touchdown passes and a career-high 343 passing yards in the shootout win over Oklahoma State. All-Big 12 Amare Thomas had 126 receiving yards, Trent Walker had 104. The tight ends are also very involved, with Patrick Overmyer catching five touchdowns the past two games combined.

Weigman is also an effective runner, on both scrambles and designed-runs, and is the type that lowers the shoulder instead of sliding.

Houston's offense is seventh in my opponent-adjusted rankings — No. 5 passing and No. 11 rushing — and actually lead the nation in the key spots third- and fourth-down conversions. This is the most talented quarterback, and overall offense, that Utah has faced so far this season.

The Utes defense dominated its September opponents, but after the bye week they have allowed 7 yards per play, 393 yards per game, and allowed both Kansas and Colorado to gain more than their season averages per-play.

In the traditional stat categories, this side of the ball looks like a toss-up; but when adjusting for opponents, it tilts more in the direction of Houston's offense.

Game prediction

Both offenses are in the top 10 of scoring and yards, and both units seem to have advantages over the opposing defenses. Look for a shootout here, with Houston and Utah going score for score, matching each other until the fourth quarter.

In one of college football's toughest places to play, Utah's defense (and the crowd) will make the difference on the final drive and make one stop to seal the win.

Utah 38 | Houston 34

Related topics