SALT LAKE CITY — Utah women's basketball is squarely on the bubble.
After four consecutive seasons of an NCAA Tournament appearance, it appears the Utes have a bit of work to do if the team wants a fifth straight appearance. Ahead of the team's final game of the regular season against Arizona, the Utes are tabbed in the "first four out" category as part of Charlie Creme's latest projections.
There's been quality results — wins over ranked teams — and some inexplicable losses for a younger team without much of its veteran leadership from years past. But head coach Gavin Petersen said he has a "resilient group" and one that no longer rely on calling itself a young team.
As such, he's pushing his players to give it their best as the team works to find a spot in the postseason tournament.
"I mean, at this point in the season, let's play our way into the tournament," Petersen said. "And so that's the mindset that I'm going to give them, and that's what I want from them. I want them to be like, 'Let's go.' That's why you signed up to come play in these games in this conference at this school, and let's get after it."
Utah's chances of a postseason bid could largely depend on Saturday's result, at least in where the Utes are slated in next week's Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
A win over Arizona at home — a projected result that ESPN gives the Utes an 83.2% chance of doing — could land Utah anywhere from a No. 7 seed to a No. 9 seed in the conference tournament. While a loss could open things up and drop Utah all the way to No. 12 if certain results around the league take place.
That six-spot swing could mean the difference of a first-round bye with a seventh or eighth league finish, or a opening day bout and a longer road to an automatic guarantee at an NCAA Tournament appearance.
(To see all the Utah scenarios in a flowchart, click here.)
Regardless of the outcome, there's no guarantee for the Utes — even with a first-round bye. Just last season, Utah earned a first-round bye in the Big 12 Tournament and went on to lose its first game against a red-hot Texas Tech team who used the opening round game as a momentum-building opportunity.
"Last year, we got a day's rest and then we ran into a hot Texas Tech team," Petersen said. "This year, I think every standing is going to go down to the last day, so who knows? We are just in a position where we're still playing for our postseason, which there are some teams throughout the country that are not.
"I'd rather be where we're at right now, as opposed to cashing it in and preparing for next season, or the Hail Mary in the Big 12 tournament," he added. "The Big 12, the parity is amazing, anybody can win it. So we've got to have that mindset of, like, let's go; we have nothing to lose. So whether we play on the first day, second day, who cares? Let's just get ready to go."
The Big 12 this season has been particularly tough to predict, even with results earlier in the week where heavy favorites No. 20 Texas Tech, Iowa State and Arizona State — all teams expected to get a first- or second-round bye — lost in their penultimate game of the regular season to teams who are in the bottom half of the standings.
It's anyone's game in Kansas City.
And while the parity will provide for some intrigue in the coming week, Petersen said the program has higher expectations than just a good showing in the Big 12 Tournament.
"We're not trying to break into the NCAA Tournament," he said. "We've been there, done that. We've actually established ourselves. You know with three years in a row in which we won the first-round game; last year, lost a close one to Indiana. So that's the standard, that's the expectation.
"Whether we live up to that or not is another story we have the opportunity to do. So it's in our control, not only in the game of basketball, but in life. Man, you want an opportunity, and we're getting that. So we have full control over our own destiny, and we've just got to focus at the task at hand right now."
That first task will be sending the seniors — Lani White, Maty Wilke, Sam Crispe and Alyssa Blanck — out on a high note with one last win at the Huntsman Center over Arizona (5 p.m. MST, ESPN+). And then it's about seizing the opportunity with whatever standing the Utes get in the Big 12 Tournament.
