'Looking really good': Zions Bank economist optimistic about Utah's future prospects

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Utah is outperforming the U.S. in several key areas, boding well for the state's economic future, a Zions Bank economist says.
Robert Spendlove singled out growth in wages in Utah and the state's expanding population, which creates a solid labor pool.
He'll be keeping close tabs on the impact of tariffs, mortgage rates and increasing use of artificial intelligence.

SALT LAKE CITY — The chief economist at a leading Utah bank is optimistic about the state's prospects going forward, noting key indicators showing Utah outperforming the United States as a whole.

"Utah is looking really good," Robert Spendlove, senior economist for Zions Bank, said Wednesday at a presentation focused on the economic outlook for 2026.

Among other factors, wage growth was been better in Utah than the nation as a whole, significant particularly in light of concerns about affordability of goods. The median household income in Utah, more than $100,000 a year, is higher than the country as a whole. "This is another sign of a good economy. When you've got an affordability problem, you need to see wage growth higher than the rest of the country, and we are seeing that," he said.

What's more, he said:

Population growth in Utah is stronger than the nation as a whole, boding for a solid labor pool, while the unemployment rate is lower.
The increase in home prices may have slowed, but that's better than the price contractions that other states like Nevada, California, Arizona, Colorado and Texas are experiencing.
Utah is one of 16 states that Moody's views as "expanding." Another 13 states are "treading water" and 21 are in or at high risk of a recession, according to the financial services company.

Spendlove's optimism notwithstanding, there are plenty of question marks going forward and several economic indicators he'll be closely monitoring as time passes. Those include mortgage rates, tariffs implemented by the administration of President Donald Trump, inflation, the labor market, unemployment, the impact of the artificial intelligence industry on jobs and the national debt.

The Moody's data in particular shows that Utah is doing well "but we are surrounded by weakness," he said. "We are surrounded by states that are already struggling, are already treading water or already in recession. We have to acknowledge that there is that risk in many parts of the country already."

Here are other points Spendlove addressed to the crowd at Zions Bank headquarters in Salt Lake City:

Mortgage rates

Consumers may have to get accustomed to higher home mortgage rates and an end to the expectation that rates will typically trend downward.

Mortgage rates "are not going back down. We've got to retrain ourselves. We've got to reset our expectations, and that's really hard to do," he said.

Zions Bank senior economist Robert Spendlove offered a presentation on Utah's economic outlook for 2026 on Wednesday at bank headquarters in Salt Lake City. (Photo: Tim Vandenack, KSL.com)

Tariffs

Tariffs averaged around 1% in the mid-2010s, 3% at the start of 2025 and 17% currently stemming from Trump's focus on the tax, applicable to imports of foreign goods. Spendlove expects tariffs to continue under Trump in the 15%-17% range.

"President Trump doesn't want me to tell you this, but a tariff is a tax. So what we've seen is we have seen a massive tax increase," he said. "It's essentially a sales tax. It's a sales tax on products coming from outside of America."

Though some have speculated that the new tariffs will lead to inflation, Spendlove said at least some indicators show that hasn't been the case, though he'll be keeping tabs on inflationary trends. Federal banking officials strive for 2% inflation, "and right now, our latest data is about 2.7%, so yes, it's higher than we want it to be, and we wish it would go down," he said.

But it's not 9% as it was in the early 2020s.

Power prices

Electricity prices have been going up nationwide, particularly in areas that house power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers.

"It is virtually impossible to produce enough electricity to meet their demand, so that is driving a lot of those electricity prices higher, and it's becoming a political issue in many parts of the country," he said.

U.S. debt

Servicing the U.S. debt is the second largest item in the federal budget, he said, raising questions about how long foreign investors will be willing to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. The Trump administration's spending plan for the year, dubbed the "big, beautiful bill" by some, could put additional pressure on debt.

But he also said Trump's tariffs, if they remain in effect at the 15% level into the future, could generate enough revenue to lower the deficit.

The Key Takeaways for this article were generated with the assistance of large language models and reviewed by our editorial team. The article, itself, is solely human-written.