Pick Six Previews: The wrong team favored in Oregon-Texas Tech quarterfinal matchup

SALT LAKE CITY — Money has always been a driving force at the highest level of college football.

In this playoff quarterfinal game, Oregon and Texas Tech would be considered "new money" in how they have built their programs and rosters here in the 21st century.

Oregon rebranded itself with flashy uniforms and state-of-the-art facilities, thanks to a boost from their Nike founder alum. And this year, Texas Tech raised money from their "big oil" alumni to land the No. 1 transfer haul in America.

In college football, money talks, and these are two of the strongest teams in the bracket.

On a per-player average, Oregon signed the No. 1 high school recruiting class and the No. 2 transfer class this cycle. Texas Tech added so many talented transfers this cycle that they placed No. 1 on the East-West Shrine Bowl 1,000, which is essentially an NFL draft watchlist.

While the other three quarterfinals feature a more traditional blue blood program, this matchup has the star power and is the most intriguing game on New Year's Day (10 a.m. MST, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Texas Tech 51.5 (32nd of 68 Power 4) | Oregon 77.7 (4th)
2024 season: Texas Tech 50.9 (39th) | Oregon 77.4 (4th)
2025 season: Texas Tech 90.0 (2nd) | Oregon 82.8 (5th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Oregon to finish third in the Big Ten and host a College Football Playoff game. Both predictions came true as the Ducks rolled through their schedule with just the one loss — a 30-20 result to Big Ten champs Indiana — and they just posted 51 points on James Madison in the playoff opener.

In the magazine, I wrote that the young but super-talented Oregon program was my pick to win the national title … in 2026.

At Big 12 media days, Kansas State and Iowa State were picked as the top two. I went against the crowd and picked Texas Tech with their talented transfer class. In my weekly stats/info package Pick Six PLUS, we have been ahead of the curve on Texas Tech and selected them every week against the spread.

They are a nation-best 12-1 ATS, and all 12 wins were by 20+ points. They only trail 2018 Clemson (13) for the most 20+ point wins in a season since the start of the Associated Press poll in 1936.

Texas Tech with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Texas Tech offense: 20th of 68 Power 4 teams, 20th passing, 25th rushing
Oregon defense: 5th of 68 Power 4 teams, 1st pass defense, 17th rush defense

Of the four units in the game, the Texas Tech offense is the only one ranked outside the top five in my opponent-adjusted categories. At No. 20, they are not weak by any means, but it remains to be seen whether their offense can win against playoff defenses.

Behren Morton is seventh in QB rating among Power Four quarterbacks, Cameron Dickey leads the Big 12 with 14 rushing touchdowns, and they have a Big 12-best four playmakers over 500+ receiving yards: Caleb Douglas, Reggie Virgil, Terrance Carter, Coy Eakin.

The most critical stat is how Texas Tech performs in the red zone. In their two games against BYU — the best defense they faced in 2025 — Tech struggled to convert red zone trips into touchdowns. They had 12 red zone drives but converted just three into touchdowns, and that 25% would be dead last in FBS.

In their other 11 games, they scored touchdowns on 38-of-61 drives (62%), which is better but still just 50th nationally. In a playoff spot like this, they need to cash in drives for touchdowns.

That is easier said than done, though, as Oregon has the No. 1 pass defense and No. 5 overall defense, with a roster packed with All-Big Ten stars and future NFL picks.

Oregon with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Oregon offense: 3rd of 68 Power 4 teams, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing
Texas Tech defense: 2nd of 68 Power 4 teams, 9th pass defense, 1st rush defense

Texas Tech joins Ohio State as the only defenses with multiple consensus All-Americans. Do-it-all linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has forced seven fumbles to go with four interceptions, and he earned a spot on my Heisman ballot. David Bailey is the nation's sack leader off the edge.

It will be a total strength-vs-strength when Oregon has the ball. They just rattled off 51 points and a crazy 9.7 yards per play in their opening round win over James Madison. Tech's No. 1 rushing defense faces Oregon's No. 2 rushing offense.

I wondered whether their season averages are inflated due to running up huge numbers against their weaker opponents. Oregon played four top 25 defenses (opponent-adjusted ranks) — Indiana, Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin — and they were held significantly under their season numbers, averaging just 21 points per game, 4.4 yards per play, 340 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech's defensive performances remained just as elite against their top four opposing offenses — BYU, BYU (Big 12 title), Kansas, Utah — they allowed just 10 points per game, 3.8 yards per play, 260 yards per game, which are all right at their full season averages.

Game prediction

Texas Tech is No. 2 in Game Grader, and by far the No. 1 rank over the last four games only category.

Oregon is also strong in every stat, and these teams are too good for this game to occur in the quarterfinals, but Game Grader suggests the wrong team is favored here.

Texas Tech 26 | Oregon 23

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