Pick Six Previews: BYU to show snubbed playoff profile in Pop-Tarts Bowl win

ORLAND, Fla. — Just three years removed from their decade of conference independence, BYU powered its way into their first conference title game since 1998. Though they came up short in a 34-7 loss to Texas Tech, this 11-2 season was still an unquestioned success for the program.

BYU took the opening kick and drove 90 yards for a touchdown and a 7-0 lead. From there, Texas Tech made the defensive adjustments and scored the remaining 34 points unanswered. Tech forced four turnovers in the second half and each one shut down any remaining momentum BYU had left in the tank.

The BYU defense did have success in the red zone, like they did in their first matchup, but their own offense was shut down to just 110 yards after that opening drive.

The Committee decided to give 10-2 Miami the final at-large spot in the College Football Playoff, and as a consolation prize BYU was invited to the Orlando-based Pop Tarts Bowl, which is quickly becoming a non-CFP bowl favorite (Saturday, 1:30 p.m. MST, ABC).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | Georgia Tech 42.5 (54th)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | Georgia Tech 51.9 (37th)
2025 season: BYU 62.9 (20th) | Georgia Tech 55.1 (32nd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They have exceeded expectations and earned their spot in the Big 12 title with an impressive 11-2 season.

BYU beat currently-ranked Utah and Arizona, and was perfect aside from their two games against Texas Tech, a powerhouse I've got ranked No. 2 in Game Grader.

Georgia Tech started the season with one-score wins over Colorado and then-ranked Clemson as they surged to an 8-0 start and a No. 7 ranking.

Since then, Tech is 1-3 and the defense cost them against NC State and Pittsburgh (90 combined points allowed), and then the offense was suffocated by SEC champs Georgia 16-9. They check in with a middle-of-the-pack No. 32 rank in Game Grader.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 28th of 68 Power 4 teams, 32nd passing, 33rd rushing
Georgia Tech defense: 64th of 68 Power 4 teams, 45th pass defense, 64th rush defense

Bowl game previews have been difficult due to the trend of opt-outs, transfers, and the never-ending coaching carousel. This Pop-Tart Bowl is a throwback — the rosters are mostly intact.

The lone exception for BYU is their Big 12 leading rusher LJ Martin (1,305 yards and 12 TD) who will miss the game due to surgery rehab. Otherwise, BYU should be at full strength; and from their press conference, they seem laser-focused on proving the selection committee made a mistake by excluding them.

Bear Bachmeier is expected back at full health after he suffered an ankle injury in the Big 12 title game. They will certainly get their yards and points here against a Georgia Tech defense that ranks in the bottom five, No. 64 of 68 of Power Four, in both my opponent-adjusted rushing defense and overall defense.

Without Martin, look for a heavy dose of QB-designed runs for the big 6-foot-2, 230-pounder Bachmeier, who already has 11 rushing scores this year. This side of the ball is a clear advantage for BYU.

Georgia Tech with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Georgia Tech offense: 11th of 68 Power 4 teams, 25th passing, 8th rushing
BYU defense: 24th of 68 Power 4 teams, 14th pass defense, 25th rush defense

Georgia Tech is also mostly at full strength, with the exception being offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who has accepted the same role at Florida. Co-coordinator Chris Weinke takes over, and the offense should be firing on all cylinders with Haynes King suiting up one last time.

King put together a dynamic season with 2,697 passing yards, 72% completion, 922 rushing yards, and 27 total touchdowns.

Tech knew they had a strong runner in Jamal Haynes, but the emergence of Malachi Hosley with his explosive 7.3 yards per carry, made this a true triple threat in the run game. Behind another trademark Brent Key offensive line, they rank No. 8 in my opponent-adjusted rush offense stat and will challenge BYU's Top 25 unit.

Game prediction

Sometimes a team that misses the playoff comes into their bowl game unfocused, but that is not the case here with BYU. Kalani Sitake had one of the best coaching jobs this entire season, and his team will be ready to play.

Star linebacker Isaiah Glasker's press conference comments back up that sentiment: "We feel like we should have been in the playoffs, but we feel like that is enough of a driving factor for us. … We are going to be ready to show out in the bowl game."

BYU's offense against the Tech defense is the biggest mismatch of the game and should make the difference.

BYU 31 | Georgia Tech 23

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