Pick Six Previews: In top-tier title bout, Ohio State rounding into super power form

ATLANTA — After just one close game in the first round and quarterfinals, the semifinals delivered two thrillers to send Ohio State and Notre Dame to the national championship game. And they both did it with defense.

In the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame's top-rated pass defense held Penn State to just 12 completions — none to a wide receiver. With the game tied in the final minute, defensive back Christian Gray jumped the route and made a diving interception to set up the game-winning field goal.

The following night in the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State clung to a 21-14 lead, but Texas drove the ball to the 1-yard line with four minutes remaining.

• First down: Run up the middle for no gain
• Second down: A shotgun toss for a loss of 7 yards
• Third down: Pass deflected by defensive end Jack Sawyer
• Fourth down: A strip sack by Sawyer, who recovered the fumble and returned it 92 yards for an all-time Buckeye moment

This is Notre Dame's second national title appearance in the BCS/College Football Playoff era (a loss to Alabama in 2012) and are attempting to end the longest title drought among the so-called blue blood programs (1988).

Ohio State won the title in 2002 over Miami, won the inaugural four-team playoff over Oregon in 2014, lost three other times (Florida, 2006; LSU, 2007; Alabama, 2020), and make their sixth title appearance Monday night.

Both head coaches are making their national title debuts. It is also rare to feature two non-southern teams, with this matchup becoming the third since 1998, joining Ohio State vs. Oregon (2014) and last year's Michigan vs. Washington final.

The other 95% of semifinals and championship games have had at least one team from a southern state playing.

This is one of the most anticipated college football games of the modern era, and the lowest ticket price is over $2,000. The two television mega-brands will likely shatter the viewership records, too.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Ohio State 82.0 (3rd of 70 Power Four) | Notre Dame 68.5 (7th)
2023 season: Ohio State 77.7 (5th) | Notre Dame 77.6 (6th)
2024 season: Ohio State 89.7 (1st) | Notre Dame 80.1 (5th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

Ohio State entered the season with Georgia as the clear-cut national title contenders. They dominated everyone on their schedule except for a toss-up game loss at Oregon (32-31) in the final seconds, and then a 13-10 failure against Michigan.

The Buckeyes' playoff performances against Tennessee and Oregon were two of the most dominant single-game scores in my 2024 Game Grader, and they now rank as the No. 1 overall team.

Notre Dame checks in at No. 5 in 2024 Game Grader. Their schedule was noticeably weaker, they lost to a MAC team in Northern Illinois, but have since rattled off 13 straight wins — that includes the SEC champion, the Big Ten runner-up, and the Big Ten's 11-1 Indiana.

Notre Dame with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Notre Dame offense (2024): 10th of 70 Power Four (20th passing, 1st rushing)
Ohio State defense (2024): 1st of 70 Power Four (3rd passing, 1st rushing)

Both sides of this game feature a No. 1 unit vs. No. 1 unit matchup, which is an extremely rare feat. On this side, Notre Dame is ranked No. 1 in my opponent-adjusted rushing metric thanks to their powerful offensive line, workhorse back Jeremiyah Love, and scrambling quarterback Riley Leonard.

The Irish attempt to run into the No. 1 rush defense front in America, as the Buckeyes limited Texas to just 58 yards (2 yards per carry) and Oregon to -23 yards before that.

When Notre Dame falls behind the chains — or behind on the scoreboard — they will need their pass game to bail them out. But this is the only statistical weakness in the entire game. Notre Dame ranks just 126th in explosive passing, 79th in yards per attempt, and 50th in the all-encompassing QB rating.

Jim Knowles' secondary? Top 10 in all three of those categories. Factor in the nation's best pass rush duo of Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau teeing off on a backup left tackle and this side tilts toward Ohio State significantly.

Ohio State's NIL strategy was to retain their veterans for a final season together, delaying early NFL bids. It paid off with a senior-laden, All-American packed No. 1 defense.

Ohio State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Ohio State offense (2024): 2nd of 70 Power Four (1st passing, 11th rushing)
Notre Dame defense (2024): 3rd of 70 Power Four (1st passing, 14th rushing)

It's another No. 1 vs. No. 1 on this side of the ball when Ohio State is passing. Will Howard and his NFL set of receivers rank No. 1 in my opponent-adjusted passing metric, while Notre Dame's elite secondary ranks No. 1 in defending the pass.

No one plays man-to-man coverage as much as Notre Dame, but the duo of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka is a whole new test.

The coordinator chess match on this side is fascinating as it features two former Power Four head coaches, Al Golden against offensive mastermind Chip Kelly. Golden saw what Michigan and Texas did to slow down Ohio State in recent games, and saw what didn't work in the Tennessee and Oregon routs.

Will the man-to-man defense hold up against future first-round receivers? Will their base coverage be enough or does Smith demand extra coverage — and if so, can they slow the run game with less defenders in the box?

Game prediction

This national championship has it all: star power, excellent coaching, "blue blood" mega brands, and national fan bases.

Weighing the whole 2024 season equally, Game Grader would project Ohio State to win by 6 points. If we weigh it more toward recent performances, that margin grows to double digits.

Ohio State is rounding into the super power team we originally expected and they will win their ninth national championship.

Ohio State 28 | Notre Dame 17

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