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PROVO — BYU's shot at the College Football Playoff took a hit two weeks ago with a home loss to Kansas, and its chances at the Big 12 championship game took a deeper hit Saturday with a 28-23 loss at Arizona State.
Now, the Cougars will need some help to simply make the Big 12 title game — and nothing is guaranteed beyond that, at least not yet.
BYU will need a win over Houston in Saturday's regular-season finale and a little help to make it to the Big 12 championship game Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. And the same could be said of BYU's shot at a CFP shot, after the Cougars were ranked No. 19 in Tuesday's latest rankings reveal show on ESPN.
Arizona State is the highest-ranked of the five ranked teams from the Big 12, coming in at No. 16 — just one spot ahead of Tulane, which will play for an American Athletic Conference title next weekend.
BYU (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) is one of four teams tied atop the Big 12 at 6-2, and if all four teams of the Cougars, Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado finish the year with a 7-2 conference record, then the Sun Devils and Cyclones will contest the league final.
BYU's only shot at Arlington would come with a win over Houston and a loss by either Iowa State or Arizona State. The Cougars would replace either fallen team in the championship contender, including via tiebreaker over a potentially 7-2 Colorado in a three-team tiebreaker.
ESPN Analytics give BYU a 53% chance of making the playoffs, enough to consider the Cougars among the "first four out" in ESPN's latest projections.
If BYU wins the Big 12, it's in. But Boise State's 10-1 record after rallying for a road win over Wyoming give the presumed Mountain West champion the nod for a first-round bye as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion of the five automatic bids.
CFP Chair, Warde Manuel, discussed how the committee ranks multi-loss teams ✍️
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 27, 2024
"The committee's never been afraid to rank teams with multiple losses within the top 12 if we see them that way." pic.twitter.com/G6nmVxnRg6
The Big 12 champion, then, would be slotted into the No. 12 seed — and a first-round tilt with No. 2 Ohio State in Columbus. Right now, that would go to Arizona State.
Also of note, however, is the Big 12's chances of being left out of the playoff entirely. Tulane, which improved to 9-2 and 7-0 in the American Athletic Conference ahead of Thursday's game against Memphis, has already clinched a spot in the AAC title game against now one-loss Army alongside its No. 17 overall ranking.
It's unknown if the winner of that game would leapfrog the Big 12 champion — but it's not an impossible scenario, as the selection committee does not "project" future rankings, committee chair Warde Manuel reiterated several times Tuesday night via conference call.
"Arizona State has had two great wins against two ranked opponents in Kansas State and BYU," said Manuel, who is also the athletic director at Michigan. "As you know, Tulane at this time has played Kansas State as their only ranked opponent and they lost to Kansas State at the beginning of the year, but they played
very well since those two losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma.
"We just felt Arizona State is playing at a level that moves them up ahead of Tulane, but as you can see, they're one away from each other, so we think highly of both of them."
Unbeaten Oregon kept hold of the No. 1 overall seed in Tuesday's bracket reveal, followed by No. 2-seeded Texas, the presumed SEC champion, and No. 3-seeded Miami, the expected ACC champions, with Boise State taking the No. 4 seed with the No. 11 overall ranking.
Indiana fell five spots to the No. 10 ranking and No. 11 seed in the latest projection following its first loss at Ohio State, while SMU is projected into the at-large field for the first time with the No. 9 overall ranking.
College Football Playoff rankings
Week 4 — Nov. 26, 2024
- Oregon (11-0)
- Ohio State (10-1)
- Texas (10-1)
- Penn State (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Miami (10-1)
- Georgia (9-2)
- Tennessee (9-2)
- SMU (10-1)
- Indiana (10-1)
- Boise State (10-1)
- Clemson (9-2)
- Alabama (8-3)
- Ole Miss (8-3)
- South Carolina (8-3)
- Arizona State (9-2)
- Tulane (9-2)
- Iowa State (9-2)
- BYU (9-2)
- Texas A&M (8-3)
- Missouri (8-3)
- UNLV (9-2)
- Illinois (8-3)
- Kansas State (8-3)
- Colorado (8-3)
