Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
PROVO — BYU's undefeated season came to a halt Saturday night in LaVell Edwards Stadium as the Cougars lost to Kansas 17-13.
The defense did its part by holding the explosive Kansas offense to several season lows; however the offense came up short in the red zone. On five trips inside the 30-yard line, BYU only cashed in for 13 points.
At the end of the first half, quarterback Jake Retzlaff underthrew the corner fade ball, giving Kansas defensive back Mello Dotson an easy interception. In the final minute, a third down audible sent BYU running a speed option into the boundary to no avail.
A procedure penalty then moved them back to a fourth-and-11, and Retzlaff's 9-yard completion was short of the line to gain.
BYU was 4-0 in one-score games, and three had fourth-down conversions on the final game-winning drive. This time, however, they were 2 yards short.
Up until 2014, a November loss to an unranked foe would be a national title eliminator. In the four-team playoff era, it would be a near knockout punch. But in this expanded 12-team era, the Big 12 champion is guaranteed a bid, meaning BYU's path to the playoff remains clear.
BYU heads to Arizona State (8-2) in arguably the most important game in the Big 12 race (1:30 p.m. MST, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Arizona State 39.9 (61st)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Arizona State 34.2 (59th)
2024 season: BYU 70.1 (13th) | Arizona State 61.2 (21st)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
After a program meltdown by former head coach Herm Edwards, Arizona State alum Kenny Dillingham already has them competing for conference titles. At 8-2, Arizona State is currently 21st in Game Grader for its highest ranking since 2014.
Six of their nine FBS games have finished within a score, and they are 5-1 in those tight finishes.
BYU shattered all preseason expectations with their 9-0 start; and even with the close loss to Kansas they remain in the Top 15.
Arizona State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Arizona State offense (2024): 14th of 16 Big 12 (8th passing, 9th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (2nd passing, 7th rushing)
Arizona State's offense started slow, but has found a new gear in November. Their first half of the season places them 15th in the Big 12, but they are seventh — top half — since. Originally it was solely the Cam Skattebo Show, the gritty, do-it-all running back who accounted for the vast majority of offensive production.
It was all Skattebo in 2023, and again for the first month of the season; but now at full health and gaining starting experience, freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt is playing excellent football.
Leavitt has thrown nine straight touchdowns without a pick — a streak that will be challenged by BYU's football-magnet secondary (nation-best 17 interceptions). Over the last three games, Leavitt is completing a high 65% of his passes, which, again, will be tested by BYU's No. 5 rank against the pass.
In addition to Leavitt, Skattebo is also now complemented by receiver Jordyn Tyson, who caught two touchdowns in Arizona State's win over Kansas State. Tyson actually leads the entire nation with 356 receiving yards in November.
The BYU defense held Kansas to season lows in total yards (242), rushing yards (73), points (17), and third-down conversions (33%). That rushing number is most notable, because their running back, Devin Neal, holds the school-record, and Kansas had been averaging triple that output.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2024): 9th of 16 Big 12 (13th passing, 6th rushing)
Arizona State defense (2024): 3rd of 16 Big 12 (4th passing, 4th rushing)
Their fourth-quarter survival skills ran out Saturday. Against Baylor, Oklahoma State and Utah, BYU successfully completed late scoring drives; but against Kansas, the Cougars came up 2 yards short of converting a fourt -down with under a minute remaining.
The play-calling — speed option into the boundary and a pass short of the sticks — is under question, but really the bigger problem was their lack of red zone scoring. With five trips inside the 30-yard line, 13 total points is unacceptable.
The Arizona State defense has been above-average for two years now under coordinator Brian Ward. He emphasizes takeaways and aggressive playcalling. Usually, that formula would leave a defense over- exposed to explosive plays, but Arizona State remarkably ranks No. 4 in defending long-yardage passing.
This defense is arguably the toughest BYU has faced — right on par with Utah.
Game prediction
With just two games left, BYU is atop the Big 12 standings and in the heat of a league title race (and playoff bid). No one, not even the BYU diehard fans, could have seen this coming, but it has been an incredible run to follow and cover.
Arizona State announced a sellout, and this is their biggest game since 2014. For BYU, dare I say it's their biggest game since 1984? Both defenses are stout, BYU's offense has the edge over Arizona State's offense, but that unit is quickly improving over the past few games.
The Vegas consensus has Arizona State by a field goal, but BYU is above .500 ATS in every situational split this year. My Game Grader has it a field goal game the other way.
BYU 24 | Arizona State 21
