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PROVO — In their transition season up to the Power Four level, BYU went 2-7 in Big 12 play. But here in their second season, they have raced to a perfect 5-0 start with a pair of conference wins.
BYU handled their non-AQ foes Southern Illinois (41-13) and Wyoming (34-14), and then held both SMU and Kansas State completely out of the end zone.
That clutch defensive performance against SMU, and then 31 unanswered points on a wild seven-minute run in the middle of the Kansas State win have set the tone for a special season in Provo.
Last week, they notched the program's first Big 12 road win at Baylor, and have jumped all the way up to No. 14 in the Associated Press poll.
This marks BYU's fifth 5-0 start in the 40 years since their 1984 national championship. With SMU's rise into the AP Poll, BYU is the only program in America to notch multiple wins over currently ranked teams.
Here after the bye week, it's a chance to take inventory of how BYU is stacking up in my opponent-adjusted metrics through five games compared to last season and our preseason expectations.
Game Grader
2023: 63rd of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 13th of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)
Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. The 29-point win over a ranked Kansas State is one of the highest individual Game Grades of the entire season so far.
Undefeated BYU is all the way up to No. 13 in 2024 Game Grader — behind only Iowa State among Big 12 teams — and has reached their highest ranking since the 2020 season.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play offense
2023: 69th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 45th of 70 Power Four (12th in Big 12)
When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story: 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Akron. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.
Instead, my metrics evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. While a No. 45 ranking may not catch much attention, it has been a significant improvement over last year's offense.
Jake Retzlaff is extending plays with his legs, the receiver room is deep and talented, and the "next-man-up" mentality at running back has helped the injury crisis.
Opponent-adjusted pass offense
2023: 66th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 44th of 70 Power Four (11th in Big 12)
The passing offense stat compares BYU's QB rating against what their opposing defenses average giving up. This is a reflection of the growth of Retzlaff, who was thrown into action late last season but developed this offseason, won a fall camp position battle, and has shined through five games in 2024.
Retzlaff ranks No. 6 in the Big 12 in QB rating after finishing last in 2023, and has already thrown 12 touchdowns. When you adjust for opponent, that ranking falls a bit, but regardless this has been a clear area of improvement for BYU.
Opponent-adjusted rush offense
2023: 59th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 30th of 70 Power Four (9th in Big 12)
The rushing stat compares BYU's yards per carry against what their opposing defenses allow. BYU has moved up 29 spots from last season here, and did so by overcoming a run of injuries to the running back room.
Their original top two backs, LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati, have missed three games, but the committee of Sione I. Moa, Enoch Nawahine and Miles Davis have all contributed.
Retzlaff actually leads the team in rushing with 156 yards and often exploits the defense on scrambles from the pocket.
Opponent-adjusted, per-play defense
2023: 48th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 10th of 70 Power Four (1st in Big 12)
The second-year bonus from defensive coordinator Jay Hill has been tremendous. Before him, the BYU defense was too conservative and coverage-heavy with their "drop eight" defense. But Hill has them attacking in the backfield, playing timely football in the red zone, and forcing turnovers all over the field.
I was in Dallas for the SMU game and was impressed with how the defense kept answering the call and kept the high-scoring Mustangs out of the end zone to snap their nine-game home win streak.
Then, Hill's defense created three turnovers in a span of six minutes of game clock in their 31-point explosion to blowout Kansas State.
Opponent-adjusted pass defense
2023: 37th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 3rd of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)
BYU's pass defense is vastly improved from last year, and the best evidence is against the two ranked opponents SMU and Kansas State. These have proven to be two top offenses, but BYU held them way below their season averages.
If they can maintain this success against the passing offenses of the Big 12, BYU could be a serious contender to win the league.
Opponent-adjusted rush defense
2023: 60th of 70 Power Four teams
2024: 15th of 70 Power Four (2nd in Big 12)
The one small Achilles' Heel for the defense has been scrambling, mobile quarterbacks, but against the traditional run game BYU has been excellent. Last week, they kept dual-threat Sawyer Robertson in check (28 rushing yards), and held Baylor to just 2.2 yards per carry.
The one-year turnaround here is significant, rising from the bottom 10 in 2023 up to the top 15 so far in 2024.
