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SALT LAKE CITY — October could still hold election surprises ahead.
A dockworkers' strike that led to a run on toilet paper and water bottles looked like it had the potential to change the upcoming presidential election. But the Biden administration was able to help temporarily halt the strike after the International Longshoremen's Association agreed to tell its members to head back to work after they were promised 62% wage increases over six years. This likely led Vice President Kamala Harris to breathe a sigh of relief.
Election watchers refer to a late-breaking event that changes the course of an election as an "October surprise."
But in a year when there has been a new reality-altering event every few weeks — from President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, to former President Donald Trump surviving two assassination attempts — maybe voters are a little more shock-proof than normal.
There are several ongoing events that in other years might change the course of an election, but so far they don't seem to be remaking this year's race.
Hurricane Helene is the deadliest storm to hit the U.S. since Hurricane Katrina, with over 200 people reportedly killed and many more still missing. Trump has criticized Biden's and Harris' response to the disaster, as has Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who said the Biden administration wasn't moving fast enough to provide aid.
Harris and Biden have pushed back on that characterization, and both have visited the areas affected, as has Trump.
Trump is also trying to blame Harris and Biden for the spiraling conflict in the Middle East, where Israel is now facing war with Iran and with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. has sent additional troops to the region.
"The world is on fire and spiraling out of control," Trump said in a written statement. "We have no leadership, no one running the country. We have a non-existent president in Joe Biden, and a completely absent vice-president, Kamala Harris, who is too busy fundraising in San Francisco."
But Trump could be facing an October surprise of his own, as he continues to face questions about his actions following the 2020 election. This week, a legal brief written by special prosecutor Jack Smith arguing Trump should not be immune from prosecution, was released.
Poll pulse
- The presidential election could come down to one state — Pennsylvania. And RealClearPolling's average of swing states polls show Trump and Harris are dead even. The latest polls show Trump ahead in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris is ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. But in Pennsylvania, Harris and Trump are tied.
- Vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance both saw big jumps in their favorability ratings after the debate this week, according to a CBS poll conducted by YouGov immediately following the debate. Among a group of respondents who are slightly more Democratic than U.S. registered voters, CBS said, Walz's favorability grew from 52% to 60%, while Vance's went from 40% to 49%. A slight plurality — 49% to 48% — said Vance won the debate.
