Canzano: San Diego State stays put ... for now


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San Diego State is staying in the Mountain West Conference.

For now?

Forever?

The Aztecs had a June 30 deadline to notify the MWC of its intention to depart if the school wanted to pay a $17 million exit fee and join the Pac-12 Conference for the 2024 football season.

Per a SDSU source on Friday afternoon: "We will not be notifying MWC of a departure from the league today."

I wasn't surprised that there was no news. I was told by multiple Pac-12 sources on Monday that we shouldn't expect big news this week. Still, the expiration of the June 30 deadline has me thinking.

San Diego State now has three options:

  • Stay in MWC.
  • Stay for now, but give notice by June 30, 2024 and join Pac-12 in 2025.
  • Pay an increased $33.5 million exit fee to join the Pac-12 for the 2024 season.

The "not today" news on Friday was met with disappointment in the Aztecs fan base. Also, some confusion and disappointment in Pac-12 land. San Diego State had long been viewed as the conference's top target for expansion.

It's a no-brainer, right?

So what are we missing?

Why aren't the Pac-12 presidents and chancellors stressing?

In fact, one member of the CEO Group told me last week: "We're feeling no time pressure."

It could be that the Pac-12 just wasn't ready to issue a formal invitation and the June 30 deadline didn't work. I continue to be told the presidents and chancellors are optimistic about the media-rights numbers and the deal framework they're seeing.

I had one Pac-12 source tell me months ago that being within range of the Big 12's number ($31.6 million per school) was "a lay-up." I've had others in the board room continually reiterate — even as late as this week — that they feel good about the Pac-12 beating that number.

I have a difficult time seeing the Pac-12 get a media-rights deal in that neighborhood without the inventory provided by 12 schools vs. 10. I also struggle to see how the Pac-12 can pull that off without the TV markets that San Diego State and SMU bring.

So what's really going on?

It could be that the Pac-12 presidents and chancellors simply don't think like you and I do. It could also be that they're simply sticking to a strict order of operations — TV deal first, expansion second — and they're not done with the media part. Or it could be that they've discovered a financial advantage to waiting another year to invite two new members.

The College Football Playoff is expanding for the 2024 season. The new TV deal is going to bring a windfall to the conferences that participate. Is it possible the Pac-12 doesn't want to split those first-year shares 12 ways vs. 10? That it's waiting because doing so helps make up for the haircut they took in the Comcast overpayment fiasco?

A veteran college administrator (not from the Pac-12) floated that theory to me on Friday as the news about San Diego State landed. He offered that being without Southern California as part of the Pac-12 for one football season wouldn't kill you on the recruiting or TV-deal fronts.

Pac-12 Football Media Day is July 21 in Las Vegas. There's no way the conference should allow the media-rights deal to overshadow the football that day. It needs to be settled. Clarity wins. All that.

Again, I didn't expect news this week. So much so that I weighed whether I should even write this piece. Basically the news is there's no news. But I want you to know what I know. And I find it interesting that the Pac-12 CEO Group didn't seem bothered by San Diego State doing nothing on Friday.

No pressure?

No timeline?

In fact, I asked one person in the Pac-12 board room what I needed to be thinking about on the San Diego State front.

The answer came: "Nothing."

Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.

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John Canzano is a sports columnist and radio show host. He's worked at six newspapers and has won 11 Associated Press Sports Editors Awards in column writing, investigative reporting and projects. He lives in Oregon and hosts a daily statewide radio show there. Read more of his content at JohnCanzano.com.

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