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San Diego State is staying in the Mountain West Conference.
For now?
Forever?
The Aztecs had a June 30 deadline to notify the MWC of its intention to depart if the school wanted to pay a $17 million exit fee and join the Pac-12 Conference for the 2024 football season.
Per a SDSU source on Friday afternoon: "We will not be notifying MWC of a departure from the league today."
I wasn't surprised that there was no news. I was told by multiple Pac-12 sources on Monday that we shouldn't expect big news this week. Still, the expiration of the June 30 deadline has me thinking.
San Diego State now has three options:
- Stay in MWC.
- Stay for now, but give notice by June 30, 2024 and join Pac-12 in 2025.
- Pay an increased $33.5 million exit fee to join the Pac-12 for the 2024 season.
The "not today" news on Friday was met with disappointment in the Aztecs fan base. Also, some confusion and disappointment in Pac-12 land. San Diego State had long been viewed as the conference's top target for expansion.
It's a no-brainer, right?
So what are we missing?
Why aren't the Pac-12 presidents and chancellors stressing?
In fact, one member of the CEO Group told me last week: "We're feeling no time pressure."
It could be that the Pac-12 just wasn't ready to issue a formal invitation and the June 30 deadline didn't work. I continue to be told the presidents and chancellors are optimistic about the media-rights numbers and the deal framework they're seeing.
I had one Pac-12 source tell me months ago that being within range of the Big 12's number ($31.6 million per school) was "a lay-up." I've had others in the board room continually reiterate — even as late as this week — that they feel good about the Pac-12 beating that number.
I have a difficult time seeing the Pac-12 get a media-rights deal in that neighborhood without the inventory provided by 12 schools vs. 10. I also struggle to see how the Pac-12 can pull that off without the TV markets that San Diego State and SMU bring.
So what's really going on?
It could be that the Pac-12 presidents and chancellors simply don't think like you and I do. It could also be that they're simply sticking to a strict order of operations — TV deal first, expansion second — and they're not done with the media part. Or it could be that they've discovered a financial advantage to waiting another year to invite two new members.
The College Football Playoff is expanding for the 2024 season. The new TV deal is going to bring a windfall to the conferences that participate. Is it possible the Pac-12 doesn't want to split those first-year shares 12 ways vs. 10? That it's waiting because doing so helps make up for the haircut they took in the Comcast overpayment fiasco?
A veteran college administrator (not from the Pac-12) floated that theory to me on Friday as the news about San Diego State landed. He offered that being without Southern California as part of the Pac-12 for one football season wouldn't kill you on the recruiting or TV-deal fronts.
Pac-12 Football Media Day is July 21 in Las Vegas. There's no way the conference should allow the media-rights deal to overshadow the football that day. It needs to be settled. Clarity wins. All that.
Again, I didn't expect news this week. So much so that I weighed whether I should even write this piece. Basically the news is there's no news. But I want you to know what I know. And I find it interesting that the Pac-12 CEO Group didn't seem bothered by San Diego State doing nothing on Friday.
No pressure?
No timeline?
In fact, I asked one person in the Pac-12 board room what I needed to be thinking about on the San Diego State front.
The answer came: "Nothing."
Read more of columnist John Canzano exclusively at JohnCanzano.com.
