Wilner's AP preseason Top 25 ballot: Notre Dame is No. 1 followed by Texas, Oregon and Georgia

Ohio State is the betting favorite to win the 2026 college football national championship.

Our pick: Notre Dame.

The Irish possess requisite amounts of both talent and motivation after their controversial exclusion from the 2025 College Football Playoff.

They are atop our Top 25 ballot, which was submitted to the Associated Press on Monday. The AP preseason poll will be released Aug. 17, at which point we will update the ballot below with each team's ranking.

Also considered: Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Iowa, James Madison, Louisville, Navy, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Tulane, UNLV, Utah, Vanderbilt and Virginia

1. Notre Dame

An elite quarterback (CJ Carr), one of the nation's best offensive lines, a shutdown cornerback (Leonard Moore), first-rate depth and a pillowy soft schedule — it's arguably a one-game season: vs. Miami on Nov. 7 — vault the Irish into prime position for their first national championship since 1988. If they finish 11-1, a playoff bid awaits.

2. Texas

The Longhorns made the four-team playoff in 2023 and the 12-team event in 2024, but this should be coach Steve Sarkisian's best team with quarterback Arch Manning settled into his role, a stellar receiver Cam Coleman (from Auburn) and a vastly improved offensive line. Texas doesn't play Alabama or Georgia, but it hosts Ohio State in Week 2.

3. Oregon

Will another strong offseason lead to the Ducks becoming the fourth consecutive Big Ten school to claim the national title following Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana? We have questions about the offensive line (very good, not elite) and two inexperienced coordinators, but that's it. Oregon is absolutely loaded everywhere else, which makes this a sneaky important year for coach Dan Lanning. If not now, when?

4. Georgia

The Bulldogs had eight players picked in the NFL draft — that's on the low end of their recent range — in large part because they were so young last season. Quarterback Gunner Stockton should be one of the best in the SEC, but are his wideouts up to the task? For whatever reason, coach Kirby Smart has not acquired, developed and retained receivers at a top-shelf level in recent years.

5. Ohio State

This placement is likely lower than you will find elsewhere, but the Hotline envisions multiple losses in 2026 for the Buckeye machine. They have a star quarterback (Julian Sayin) and the best offensive player in the sport (receiver Jeremiah Smith). But the schedule is brutal with Texas, Indiana and USC on the road and Michigan and Oregon at home. That lineup should make Big Ten's TV partners very, very happy.

6. LSU

This placement is likely higher than you will find elsewhere, but the Hotline expects a massive upgrade in Baton Rouge due to first-year coach Lane Kiffin's success acquiring quarterback Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), offensive tackle Jordan Seaton (Colorado) and edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen (Mississippi). The schedule is tough early and ludicrous late with November back-to-backs against Alabama and Texas.

7. Miami

With quarterback Darian Mensah set to take charge (after transferring from Duke) and tailback Mark Fletcher and receiver Malachi Toney returning — the lines of scrimmage should be stout, as well — the Hurricanes are well-positioned to dominate an ACC that is top-light and middle-heavy. Until Clemson and Florida State find their mojo, it's good to be the Canes.

8. Indiana

Coach Curt Cignetti has a next-level ability to identify and develop players. In 2026, his challenge is to conjure the best from transfer quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU) and, critically, fend off complacency in his returning players. The Hoosiers, who have not lost since December 2024, play Ohio State (home) and Michigan (road) back-to-back in October.

9. Oklahoma

The defense will be elite in Norman as long as coach Brent Venables stalks the sideline. Whether the Sooners return to the playoff depends entirely on the offense and, specifically, quarterback John Mateer's health and efficiency. When operating at full capacity, Mateer is as dynamic as anyone in the country. But how often will he reach that level?

10. USC

After an 18-month push to upgrade their roster, staff and resources, the Trojans appear ideally positioned for the CFP. Sure, the schedule is grueling even without Notre Dame: It includes Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State, plus Washington and Penn State. But there are zero excuses available for Lincoln Riley in 2026. If he doesn't produce USC's first playoff appearance, a coaching change should follow.

11. BYU

Our pick to win the Big 12 over Texas Tech possesses a terrific combination of quarterback (Bear Bachmeier) and offensive line, plus what should be a top-tier defense. (Losing coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan was a blow, however.) But as you probably noticed, the Cougars are the first Big 12 team listed here, a reflection of the conference's low ceiling compared to its Power Four peers.

12. Alabama

This is our bleakest outlook for the Crimson Tide since 2008, Nick Saban's second season. It's based on a variety of factors, starting with coach Kalen DeBoer's ongoing struggle to muster an effective ground game. Also, the schedule is challenging and the quarterback situation deeply unsettled. As a result, our forecast calls for three losses, an early playoff exit and escalating frustration in Tuscaloosa.

13. Washington

Jedd Fisch in Year 3? We're buyers, not sellers. If the Huskies don't win at least nine games, something will have gone very wrong — such is the modest nature of the schedule and the quality of the returning personnel, especially on the offensive line. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. must improve his pocket efficiency for the Huskies to be in position for a CFP bid entering the final two Saturdays, when they face Indiana (home) and Oregon (road).

14. Texas A&M

The Aggies lost 10 players to the NFL draft but managed to retain the two most important pieces: coach Mike Elko and quarterback Marcel Reed. The schedule matrix, so favorable the past two years, shifts against them in 2026 with a lineup that includes LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas. A return to the CFP would be well-earned.

15. Michigan

If there's a more interesting team in the country than the Wolverines in Year 1 of the Kyle Whittingham era, we haven't found it. Will quarterback Bryce Underwood emerge as one of the nation's best? Is freshman tailback Savion Hiter as good as advertised? Will the Wolverines navigate a schedule that features Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State? Also, how deeply will Whittingham's performance impact the collective psychology in his former hometown, Salt Lake City?

16. SMU

Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who tossed his first pass in University Park in October 2022, is back for his final year with a return to the CFP in the crosshairs. The Mustangs certainly have the personnel needed to finish second in the ACC, which would theoretically put them in playoff position. The opener, at Florida State, will set the trajectory.

17. Mississippi

No team (anywhere) has a better combination of quarterback and tailback than the Rebels' duo of Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy. But the severity of the backslide in the post-Lane Kiffin era hinges on the lines of scrimmage — well, the lines of scrimmage and coach Pete Golding displaying the acumen he showed during the playoff run.

18. Boise State

With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning as a third-year starter and an offensive line stouter than many in the power conferences, Boise State enters 2026 as the clear favorite to win the rebuilt Pac-12. But to stay in the playoff conversation, the Broncos probably can't afford a blowout loss at Oregon in the opener — as in 2024, they must be competitive. The Week 2 home date with Memphis will be telling, as well.

19. Houston

Don't be surprised if the Cougars, not BYU or Texas Tech, emerge from the Big 12 muddle with a conference title in hand. Coach Willie Fritz's third year could be his best and includes the stellar quarterback combination of returnee Conner Weigman and freshman Keisean Henderson, the nation's top high school prospect last year.

20. Penn State

It's tough to regard the Nittany Lions as a sleeper pick considering their blue-blood status, but nor are they the top-10 lock we have come to expect. First-year coach Matt Campbell brought many of his top players from Iowa State, including quarterback Rocco Becht. Are they good enough to win consistently in the Big Ten? It will be fascinating to watch.

21. Arizona

History suggests it could be a difficult year in Tucson, for the Wildcats have not produced consecutive winning seasons in more than a decade. But with all the key coaches and quarterback Noah Fifita returning, plus talent on both lines, there's a strong foundation. And if coach Brent Brennan manages to avoid a major regression with his secondary, Arizona's chances for success quadruple.

22. New Mexico

This placement, which reflects our view of the Lobos as the best team in the Mountain West, is rooted in the return of coach Jason Eck and a favorable conference schedule. Also, don't be surprised if New Mexico pushes Oklahoma to the limit in Week 3, when the Sooners will be coming off the Michigan showdown.

23. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders were hardly a one-hit wonder — not with their roster payroll — but the defense could regress slightly, and they must rely on a quarterback, Will Hammond, who's coming off a major knee injury. Sure, the team everyone loves to hate could return to the CFP. But don't be surprised if the football gods, displeased with the attitude and actions in Lubbock, make life difficult.

24. Virginia Tech

It should become perfectly clear that James Franklin was the perfect hire when the Hokies complete a perfect September and emerge as an unlikely contender in the wide-open ACC. One issue: The road schedule includes Miami, SMU and Clemson.

25. Oklahoma State

Our top sleeper pick is coming off back-to-back winless seasons in Big 12 play. (That's not easy in any conference.) Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who followed coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Stillwater, should be one of the best in the nation and a high NFL draft pick. The Cowboys get Texas Tech at home and miss BYU and Utah. Could they win the Big 12? The likelihood is non-zero.

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