Utah and BYU are ranked, unbeaten, dominant and on collision course for an epic edition of the Holy War

BYU and Utah won't collide for 45 days. Too bad it's not four or five. What might be the holiest of Holy Wars cannot come soon enough, not only for the teams and their fans but for the sport.

The 2026 edition, set for Nov. 7 in Rice-Eccles Stadium, could have massive implications for the Big 12 championship and the College Football Playoff selection process.

At the very least, it will be the third time this century when both BYU and Utah are ranked at the time of kickoff.

And not just ranked.

Both could be in the top 10.

Heck, both could be undefeated.

What are the odds? Glad you asked, because we did the math.

First, the Hotline determined the likelihood of each team being 8-0 when they collide on Week 10.

According to teamrankings.com, a sports wagering and analytics website, the No. 9 Cougars and No. 15 Utes will be favored in all but one of the 10 combined games played before their showdown.

The exception, of course, is BYU's home date with third-ranked Notre Dame, which is favored by 10 points over the Cougars, per an early betting line published by vegasinsider.com.

Here are Utah's opponents with the likelihood of a Utes victory in each based on presumptive point spreads:

at Iowa State: 77%
vs. Kansas: 88%
at Colorado: 91%
vs. Houston: 66%
at Cincinnati: 80%

Using back-of-the-envelope probability calculations — there's a reason the Hotline got into journalism and not computer science — those single-game figures suggest a 32.5% chance of the Utes being 8-0 when they welcome the Cougars to town in early November.

One in three.

To which we say, hogwash.

Why? Because of the timing of the most difficult game in the collection: Houston.

The Cougars will visit Salt Lake City on Oct. 24 as the last installment in a taxing three-game stretch: They play Kansas State on the road, host Oklahoma State, which just dominated Oregon, and then head to the altitude and bedlam of Rice-Eccles.

Meanwhile, the Utes will be coming off what should be a routine thumping of Colorado, which just got run off the field by Northwestern.

The logistics tilt heavily in Utah's favor — to a far greater extent than the teamrankings.com win probability (66%) indicates.

In our view, the Utes have a 50-50 chance of being undefeated when the Holy War arrives.

Next, let's examine BYU's schedule, alongside the chance of victory in each game based on presumptive point spreads:

at TCU: 62%
vs. Iowa State: 83%
vs. Notre Dame: 26%
at UCF: 62%
vs. Arizona State: 74%

That suggests a 6% chance of the Cougars winning all five games to ensure an undefeated record when the bus departs for Rice-Eccles Stadium.

If BYU's chance of an 8-0 record is 6% and Utah's chance is 32.5%, the likelihood of both being perfect is a mere 2%.

Cleary, one obstacle is vastly more daunting than the others. What if the Cougars beat Notre Dame? In that case, the likelihood of an unbeaten record would soar to 24%, a four-fold increase, and the same would apply to the potential for both teams being undefeated: 8%.

But as with Utah, we view BYU's real-world prospects for being 8-0 as much higher than the teamrankings.com probability data suggests. Why? Because the Hotline has watched UCF and TCU play. Neither is in BYU's class. The Cougars would have to partake in their own demise, and that's not something Kalani Sitake's teams typically do.

Notre Dame is the major hurdle for BYU — and for the Holy War itself.

Frankly, we aren't sure the state of Utah could survive a matchup of undefeated teams, both entrenched in the top 10.

In fact, the Cougars likely would ascend to the top three if they topple the Irish.

(Both teams were ranked for the 2025 version of the Holy War. But at this point last year, Utah was 16th, about to get clocked by Texas Tech, and BYU was unranked. So the game didn't loom as large.)

A critical point before we move on: The Notre Dame showdown has major implications for BYU's resume as a candidate for the CFP at-large pool but zero bearing on its position within the Big 12 race.

And that, folks, is where the true impact of what will be either the 98th or 104th edition of the Holy War. (The schools cannot even agree on that detail.)

Within an array of forgettable Big 12 results from last weekend, one carried immense meaning: Texas Tech's 2-point victory over Houston on Friday night.

The Red Raiders were considered the preseason favorite to win the conference (although not on the Hotline). One reason for that support: their conference schedule. They don't play either BYU or Utah.

With a win over Houston secured and most of their toughest games at home, the 11th-ranked Red Raiders are ideally positioned to occupy one spot in the conference championship.

It's easy to envision — too easy, in our view — a scenario in which the Holy War winner uses the head-to-head result as the launch point to grab the second spot in Arlington.

In other words, the Week 10 collision would become an elimination game in the Big 12 race.

And if the loser is boxed out of the conference championship, it would be pushed to the brink of elimination from the CFP.

Why? Because the selection committee has not looked kindly upon the Big 12 through two years of the 12-team field.

Unlike its peers in the Power Four, the conference has not received an at-large bid. The Cougars were close, twice. But in both 2024 and 2025, they had two losses on playoff selection day.

The committee has sent a clear message that two-loss Big 12 teams are not viewed as favorably as two-loss teams from the ACC, Big Ten and SEC.

Combine the Holy War itself, BYU's date with Notre Dame and the Big 12 championship, and there are potholes looming for both the Cougars and the Utes in their twin pursuits of the one-loss season that seemingly would vault them into the CFP at-large pool.

They also have access to the Big 12's automatic bid, but that requires a victory in the conference championship.

Which, seemingly, requires a victory in the Holy War.

Which, as we noted above, cannot come soon enough.

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