Week 8 features dangerous assignments for second-ranked BYU and No. 10 Utah as they churn toward an undefeated collision in what could be the holiest of Holy Wars in the 130-year history of the rivalry.
One is a trap game with a capital T-R-A-P.
The Cougars, fresh off their landmark victory over Notre Dame, head across the country to face UCF, a fair-to-middlin' opponent with two weeks to prepare.
Hangovers are real, even in Provo.
Will the Cougars muster a sense of urgency following the physically and emotionally taxing showdown with the Irish? We suspect their trip to Orlando will include a stopover in Letdown City.
Utah's challenge this week is dangerous in the traditional sense: Houston is good. Very good.
The 14th-ranked Cougars might be better than the Utes (6-0) and are certainly the best team Utah has faced this season by a factor of two bajillion.
In fact, the steep upturn in competition is one of five reasons the Utes are neck-deep in trouble Saturday night.
Let's dive in:
1. Too many miscues
The chief reason for our skeptical view? Utah's recent performances. In two games since their early-October bye, the Utes have been downright sloppy.
They had 10 penalties and two turnovers in the win over Kansas and two more turnovers in a victory at Colorado that was two touchdowns closer than it should have been.
Also, the Utes gave up 138 rushing yards (and 5.8 yards per carry) to a Colorado offense that had previously been inept on the ground.
Our hunch: Boredom has taken hold. And boredom can lead to rot, which can derail a season.
2. Stepping up in class
The source of Utah's boredom? A softer-than-expected September schedule that did not challenge the Utes or require a sense of urgency for 60 minutes. (Blame Arkansas.) They were able to execute at 75% of capacity and win handily.
The situation hasn't improved markedly in October. Utah's strength-of-schedule is No. 101 in the ESPN computer rankings, and its three conference opponents (Iowa State, Colorado and Kansas) are 1-8 in league play.
Put another way: Houston constitutes a massive upgrade in competition for the Utes.
Notably, the reverse isn't true.
Houston has been forced to execute under pressure, not once but twice: a 2-point loss at No. 8 Texas Tech and a 3-point win over previously ranked Oklahoma State, in which the Cougars used a fourth-quarter touchdown to seal the victory.
The Cougars have played two opponents that are a level better than anyone Utah has faced.
3. Grandmaster on the opposing sideline.
First-year coach Morgan Scalley and his staff have done quality work thus far with Utah's tactics, culture, preparation and in-game decisions.
But the Utes will meet their match, and then some, on Saturday night. Houston's Willie Fritz is the best coach in the Big 12 and one of the sport's true masters despite his low profile.
Much like Indiana's Curt Cignetti, Fritz has won at every level: junior college, Football Championship Subdivision, Group of Six and now the Power Four.
The Cougars were 4-8 in 2023, prior to his arrival. They won four games in Fritz's first year and 10 in his second. Halfway through his third, they are 6-1 and a field goal away (against Texas Tech) from being undefeated.
Watch for Houston to limit the Utes' advantages and expose their weaknesses to a degree no prior opponent has managed.
4. An elite QB
Houston's Conner Weigman is the best quarterback the Utes have faced, and it's not particularly close.
The former five-star prospect — he spent three years at Texas A&M — has first-rate size, mobility and arm strength, and he excels in the fourth quarter.
All Weigman did against Texas Tech was throw for 283 yards and three touchdowns and direct an 88-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes.
And we doubt he'll be intimidated by the raucous environment at Rice-Eccles.
Weigman dealt with the deafening cowbells at Mississippi State during his final season at Texas A&M.
5. Opponents are adjusting
The final source of our skepticism is based not on facts but theory.
Scalley and new coordinator Kevin McGiven overhauled Utah's offense, injecting an impressive dose of creativity with formations and personnel. For example: playing quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin together.
The revamped scheme generated 173 points in four September games.
But we wonder: Are opponents catching up to the Utes?
That would explain the relatively low output (27 points) against Colorado and even the recent spate of penalties and turnovers (because executing the basics is more difficult).
To be clear, this is a common occurrence. The more games played, the easier for opponents to identify tendencies.
Just as the Cougars have a keener sense for Utah's preferences than did Arkansas, for instance, so do the Utes have a firm grasp on Houston's preferences after seven games.
The best coaching staffs adjust to the adjustments. They self-scout, pinpoint the same trends their opponents spot and tweak the plays and formations accordingly.
Fritz and his coordinators adjust as well as any staff in the country.
The Utes need to be one step ahead Saturday night or risk falling one game behind in the Big 12 race.
