Pac-12 bowl projections: Enjoy the Oregon-USC drama, because playoff expansion would change the pressure gauge

The Pac-12 bowl selection process in 2026 treats the former conference as if it never imploded, grouping the 12 legacy schools together just as it did the previous two years. Meanwhile, the new Pac-12 teams have separate postseason arrangements. To simplify the situation, we have split the 18 teams into two groups: Pac-12 legacy bowls and Pac-12 new bowls. Washington State and Oregon State are part of the legacy bowl process with the exception of the Poinsettia Bowl, where they would compete as a new Pac-12 team. Bowl projections will be published on the Hotline each Tuesday through the regular season.

In Los Angeles, it's Oregon week.

In Eugene, it's USC week.

Up and down the West Coast, it's the biggest intra-regional game since the old Pac-12 collapsed three years ago: The Trojans and Ducks, both ranked, dueling in primetime with stakes that span the stratosphere.

They are highest for USC coach Lincoln Riley, who has been given every resource imaginable to build a roster capable of winning showdowns exactly like this and reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time.

If Riley can't topple the 20th-ranked Ducks this season, after their face plant at Oklahoma State, when will he? The last fragments of patience with his tenure would disappear across the USC constituency.

Meanwhile, a loss to the 12th-ranked Trojans would push Oregon to the brink of CFP elimination and heap more pressure on coach Dan Lanning to provide the expected returns on his $40 million roster.

The backdrop to three pressure-packed hours in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum? Playoff expansion.

If the field doubles in size to 24 teams, duels of this nature would lose much of their drama.

College football executives, with the Big Ten in a leading role, are convinced expansion would improve the regular season. More access creates opportunity for more teams, right?

"For some reason, I think we're up against some older traditions (in college football)," Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said earlier this year.

"It's the last place where every team in the postseason has to have a legitimate chance to win a championship. That's not the way the playoffs work in every other sport, including in the NCAA (basketball). But football's hung on to that. (Expanding the playoff) makes the regular season better."

But the further you move from the sport's power center, the greater the concern that CFP expansion will strip the regular season of the drama at the heart of its popularity.

"Such a different vibe between early losses in (college football) and the NFL," Daniel Jeremiah, the draft analyst for ESPN and the NFL Network, wrote on the social media platform X last week.

"In college, it feels like a death sentence. In the NFL, it's just looked at as a feeling out/finding yourself period. I hope we don't lose that urgency in (the) college game with (an) expanded playoff."

With an expanded playoff field, teams with three and perhaps four losses would be guaranteed bids. Despite the meltdown against unranked Oklahoma State, the Ducks could lose to USC and to Ohio State later in the season and clear the CFP threshold with ease (assuming victories in the other seven games).

With an expanded playoff field, the undefeated Trojans would take the Coliseum field Saturday afternoon with three losses in their back pocket.

The same would be true across the sport this weekend, where six games match ranked teams against each other — essentially half the members of the AP Top 25.

The list includes a fascinating SEC matchup between No. 10 LSU and No. 23 Texas A&M. Both teams lost Saturday and are desperate to avoid a second defeat with unforgiving conference schedules looming. If the CFP field doubled in size, there would be far less pressure.

In many ways, Week 4 serves as a Rorschach test for playoff expansion.

Nobody who delights in the do-or-die vibe that will permeate the environments in Baton Rouge and the Coliseum should want the CFP to expand.

To the projections ...

Pac-12 legacy bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah

Comment: We have seen enough from the Utes (3-0), and from everyone else in the Big 12, to believe they have what it takes to win the conference and advance to the CFP. Yes, this means winning the Holy War, but they don't play Texas Tech or Arizona State and get Arizona and Houston at home.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Oregon

Comment: The loss to Oklahoma State essentially means the Ducks (2-1) must navigate the Big Ten schedule with no worse than an 8-1 record. Given their flaws on the lines of scrimmage, that seems like a sub-50/50 proposition. If they win Saturday in the Los Angeles Coliseum, the outlook brightens considerably.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: UCLA

Comment: Admittedly, this seems like a reach for UCLA (3-0), but the conference schedule might as well have been created by Joe Bruin himself. And if Bob Chesney and Co. finish 8-4, they will have enough momentum and attention to become a desired guest on the bowl circuit.

Holiday Bowl

Team: USC

Comment: The Trojans (4-0) would be attractive for both the Las Vegas and Holiday Bowls if, as we suspect, they lose three or four games and fall out of the CFP chase. Clarity will emerge the moment the Oregon game concludes. But the road ahead is challenging with Ohio State paying a visit and trips to both Indiana and Penn State.

Sun Bowl

Team: Washington

Comment: Nothing thus far suggests a material change to UW's outlook, which is a continuation of the trajectory established last season: The Huskies (3-0) should beat the lesser teams on the schedule and lose to the better teams on the schedule. And there are a handful of the latter.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Arizona State

Comment: Our current forecast calls for quarterback Cutter Boley to struggle just enough to prevent the Sun Devils (2-1) from reaching their ceiling (the Big 12 title). With one loss on the books already, they would only need two more to fall into the middle tier of the Pac-12 bowl lineup. But based on what we have witnessed, the Poinsettia is their floor.

Independence Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment: The trip to Washington State this week is a sneaky-important game for Arizona's bowl math. We don't expect the Wildcats (2-1) to scramble to reach six wins, but a victory on the Palouse could very well be the difference between eight and nine victories ... or seven and eight.

At-large/ESPN bowl pool

Team: Oregon State

Comment: A team below .500 has nonetheless authored one of the most surprising starts in the country. It's impossible not to be impressed with coach JaMarcus Shephard's work thus far. Given results across the Pac-12, the Beavers (1-2) appear more likely than not to reach the six-win bar for postseason eligibility. And they could get to seven or eight.

Non-qualifier

Team: Cal

Comment: When does a 49-7 victory have zero impact on the Hotline's bowl projections? When the victim — in this case, Wagner — also has an 87-3 loss to James Madison on its ledger. That said, the Bears (2-1) have a superb chance to beat Clemson on Friday night in Berkeley, and who would have ever expected that dynamic.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado

Comment: The CU players mocked Northwestern's temporary stadium before kickoff, then got their butts kicked 41-7. By rule, the Hotline doesn't forecast bowl bids for teams that look as bad as the Buffaloes (2-1) did last weekend.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: The only remaining unknown is whether the Cardinal (1-2) matches last year's total of four wins. The ACC's opponent rotation was not kind with the likes of Louisville and Wake Forest. Stanford would have been better off playing Florida State and Clemson.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State

Comment: Based on results to date, the Cougars (1-2) will be favored in four of their remaining games, at most. Which means they must produce an upset or two and win the games they are supposed to win. Which means the offense better shift to a higher gear this week (against Arizona) and every other week.

Pac-12 new bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Boise State

Comment: If the Broncos (2-1) handle Western Michigan this weekend, they would become the heavy favorite for the Group of Six's automatic bid to the playoff — to the point that a single loss in Pac-12 play wouldn't derail their charge as long as they win the conference championship.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Fresno State

Comment: If the Pac-12 champion doesn't qualify for the CFP, it would land in the Poinsettia. Because our current forecast calls for Boise State jumping into the playoff, the rebuilt conference's No. 2 team would end up in San Diego against a legacy Pac-12 team. At this point, Fresno State (2-1) and Oregon State are the frontrunners to become the runner-up.

Hawaii Bowl

Team: Texas State

Comment: The victory over North Texas, which had blasted UNLV the previous week, changes the postseason math for Texas State (1-2), which could produce a lengthy winning streak given the manageable upcoming schedule. The toughest games are crammed into the final month.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado State

Comment: How likely are the Rams (2-1) to win four of their final nine games? A victory this week at UTSA would help immensely. But the twin keys are home dates with Oregon State and San Diego State in October. Because November is treacherous.

Non-qualifier

Team: San Diego State

Comment: The Hotline can't unsee what we haven't seen from the Aztecs: an offense capable of scoring multiple touchdowns against the best teams on the schedule. That list includes Toledo, which welcomes SDSU (1-2) this week. Also, Oregon State's impressive start doesn't help matters — that is just one more difficult conference game.

Non-qualifier

Team: Utah State

Comment: The Aggies (0-3) have what it takes to become a first-rate spoiler in the conference race, and there will be plenty of opportunities.

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