Big 12 post-spring projections: Our forecast shows BYU on top with Houston, Texas Tech

The Big 12 leaned into parity as the dominant narrative of its post-realignment form and a means of distinguishing itself from top-heavy peers in the Power Four conferences.

That theme played out to perfection in 2024, when the team picked last finished first (Arizona State) and the team picked first finished 13th (Utah).

But 2025 suggested a shifting landscape as Texas Tech, the preseason favorite with a high-priced roster, blasted its way to the Big 12 title.

Which dynamic will materialize in Year 3?

A return to unpredictability might prove pleasing to fans and produce a slew of unforgettable Saturdays, but it's not the best course for placing an at-large team in the College Football Playoff.

Through two years of the 12-team CFP, the Big 12 stands as the only power conference without an at-large participant — or, for that matter, without a CFP victory.

Three months of eat-your-own competition this fall isn't the most effective means to that end. The conference needs a hierarchy to emerge, something akin to the Big Ten's clearly defined top tier of Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon.

That seemed more likely before Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby became the subject of an NCAA investigation for gambling last month. If he doesn't return, the team widely considered the preseason favorite morphs into a mere contender and the race widens at the top.

Which, if we're being honest, is exactly what the Big 12 doesn't need.

The following projections, updated from January, will be revised again at the close of training camp.

1. BYU

Last year: 12-2/8-1

Comment: We slotted the Cougars on top in our February forecast, and the gap has only widened in the past three months. No team has a better combination of quarterback (Bear Bachmeier), tailback (LJ Martin) and offensive line. Sure, there are questions at receiver, but championships are won with running games and physical fronts — and, we should add, with stout defenses. BYU has all three. Admittedly, the loss of defensive coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan will cut deep in Provo, but the situation would be exponentially worse if the Cougars didn't have veterans on every level. (Returnee Isaiah Glasker and Cal transfer Cade Uluave will form the best linebacker tandem in the conference). Kalani Sitake's most complete team will have the added benefit of playing all its toughest games (except for the Holy War) at home. (Previous: 1)

2. Houston

Last year: 10-3/6-3

Comment: Willie Fritz's crew won't catch anyone by surprise after the breakthrough season in 2025. Many of Houston's pillars are back, starting with quarterback Conner Weigman. Notably, seven of the 19 players added through the transfer portal are linemen — the improved depth should help Houston hold up down the stretch. Another reason to like the Cougars: the schedule. They get Texas Tech early, when the quarterback situation in Lubbock could be unsettled, and don't play BYU or either of the Arizona schools. (Previous: 3)

3. Texas Tech

Last year: 12-2/8-1

Comment: We are presuming quarterback Brendan Sorsby has taken his last snap in college. (If the NCAA verifies that he gambled on Indiana while redshirting in Bloomington, he's done.) Will Hammond would have been one of the top backup quarterbacks in the country. Instead, he's the expected starter in Lubbock coming off knee surgery, with a return date that is very much TBD. The Red Raiders have another strong transfer class, but we are skeptical the dominance they showed in 2025 will be replicated — especially with Hammond at less than 100 percent early in the season. (Previous: 2)

4. Oklahoma State

Last year: 1-11/0-9

Comment: We'll pause a moment for readers to digest this lofty projection … OK, now a brief explanation: The most predictable element of the Big 12 race is the unpredictability — at least one team will soar past expectations. Our money is on first-year coach Eric Morris, who won 12 games with North Texas last season, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who passed for 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns for the Mean Green. Every team on the schedule will circle Oklahoma State as a victory in much the same fashion Arizona State was overlooked in 2024. And we know how that turned out. (Previous: 6)

5. Arizona

Last year: 9-4/6-3

Comment: No program has experienced swings of success and failure quite like the Wildcats, whose win totals over the past five years (1-5-10-4-9) are downright dizzying. That pattern should end in 2026 with the return of the essential quartet: head coach Brent Brennan, play caller Seth Doege, quarterback Noah Fifita and defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales. That said, we're wary of slotting Arizona on the Big 12's top tier given the heavy attrition in the secondary — four defensive backs were picked in the NFL Draft — and one of the toughest schedules in the conference. The Wildcats draw BYU, Utah, Texas Tech and, of course, Arizona State. (Previous: 4)

6. Arizona State

Last year: 8-5/6-3

Comment: We fully expect coach Kenny Dillingham to bring out the best in transfer quarterback Cutter Boley, who threw almost as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (15) last season for Kentucky. And if Boley doesn't progress at the needed rate, there's a solid Plan B: the well-traveled Mikey Keene, formerly of UCF, Fresno State and Michigan. At least Boley (or Keene) will have a No. 1 target in the aerial game with Colorado transfer Omarion Miller, a potential first-round draft pick. Much depends on Dillingham's sixth sense for overlooked talent producing another wave of impact players. (Previous: 5)

7. Utah

Last year: 11-2/7-2

Comment: This is not a misprint. It's also our most pessimistic outlook for the Utes (regardless of their conference affiliation) since the mid-2010s. There's no guarantee Morgan Scalley will be as effective in the role of head coach as he was as the defensive playcaller for Kyle Whittingham. Will the offense operate as efficiently without coordinator Jason Beck and star tackles Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu? How will new coordinator Kevin McGiven handle two starting-caliber quarterbacks (Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin)? The slightest regression on defense — whether it's related to Scalley's new gig or other factors — will leave Utah vulnerable to a middle-of-the-pack finish. (Previous: 7)

8. TCU

Last year: 9-4/5-4

Comment: Quarterback Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer who carved up the Ivy League, replaces Josh Hoover with less arm talent but, in theory, better ball security. His success hinges on the Horned Frogs becoming more efficient with their ground game, an issue the past two seasons. Sonny Dykes has finished ninth, fifth and seventh (consecutively) in the conference each season since his College Football Playoff run four seasons ago. We expect that trend to continue. (Previous: 9)

9. Kansas State

Last year: 6-6/5-4

Comment: Welcome to the muddled middle of the Big 12, where margins are thin and ties (in the standings) are a given. Like so many other teams, the Wildcats need high-level quarterback play to separate from the pack. Like so many other teams, they are likely to be disappointed. Despite the coaching change to former KSU quarterback Collin Klein, we suspect Avery Johnson will remain one of the greatest talent teases the Big 12 has seen in eons. (Previous: 10)

10. West Virginia

Last year: 4-8/2-7

Comment: A semi-sleeper pick to the extent a team slotted for 10th can be deemed a sleeper. The optimism is rooted in our faith that Rich Rodriguez, as was the case with Willie Fritz at Houston last season, will orchestrate a major upturn in his second season. The Mountaineers must win early and secure a bowl bid by Halloween, because the November schedule is absolutely loaded. (Previous: 8)

11. Baylor

Last year: 5-7/3-6

Comment: The Bears received strong consideration for a spot in the top 10 based on the not-unreasonable chance that coach Dave Aranda will leap off the hot seat just as he did in 2024. That scenario requires a breakthrough season from transfer quarterback DJ Lagway (Florida), whose ceiling is high and floor is low. The task of raising the latter falls to veteran playcaller Jake Spavital. (Previous: 15)

12. Cincinnati

Last year: 7-6/5-4

Comment: At this point, the Hotline is merely attempting to identify the one-eyed team in the kingdom of the blind. The Bearcats need a quarterback to emerge after losing Sorsby to Texas Tech and have September to make it happen. If any team has a more difficult conference schedule, we haven't seen it. The heat under coach Scott Satterfield's seat shows no signs of abating. (Previous: 11)

13. Kansas

Last year: 5-7/3-6

Comment: We cannot help but think coach Lance Leipold, despite his impressive early-tenure success, will be unable to alter KU's multi-year downward trajectory that includes back-to-back losing seasons and, in 2025, a blowout loss to Kansas State. (Once programs with limited resources and no tradition begin to spiral, the process is difficult to reverse.) The Jayhawks need a quarterback to replace Jalon Daniels and so much more. But hey, at least Bill Self managed to nab Tyran Stokes. (Previous: 12)

14. UCF

Last year: 5-7/2-7

Comment: The Knights could finish in the middle of the pack if everything breaks just right for Scott Frost in the second season of his second tenure in Orlando. (The schedule is certainly soft enough to fuel an uptick.) More likely, the Knights will finish in a three- or four-team tie near the bottom of the standings. (Previous: 16)

15. Colorado

Last year: 3-9/1-8

Comment: Speaking of downward trajectories, the Buffaloes collapsed in 2025 and now enter a crucial year for coach Deion Sanders. They need better play from the offensive line — stop us if you've heard that before — but losing star tackle Jordan Seaton (to LSU) won't help matters. We find it notable that CU didn't produce an NFL Draft pick last month. Perhaps the talent evaluation and development isn't as strong as Sanders' reputation suggests. (Previous: 13)

16. Iowa State

Last year: 8-4/5-4

Comment: The Cyclones lost 55 players to the transfer portal, with many of them following Matt Campbell to Penn State, including quarterback Rocco Becht. The replacements won't be nearly as impactful. Based on what we saw from first-year coach Jimmy Rogers during his brief tenure in Pullman, there is good reason to wonder about the efficacy of Iowa State's offense. (Previous: 14)

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