Big 12 football: Assessing the win total projections for all 16 teams (it's Texas Tech's title to lose ... or maybe not)

Only six teams in major college football have regular-season win totals in the double digits. One resides in the Big 12. The oddsmakers believe, once again, that Texas Tech is the best in the conference — and not by a little.

The Red Raiders have a posted Over/Under win total of 10.5, according to FanDuel, followed by four teams at 8.5: BYU, Houston, Kansas State and Utah.

As you'll see below, the Hotline views those numbers as a poor representation of the dynamics that will play out across the Big 12 this fall.

Before we dive in, please note: The posted totals are for the 12-game regular season. The conference championship and bowls don't count.

Thank us later.

(Listed alphabetically)

Arizona

FanDuel total: 7.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: We are defying recent history with the Over given Arizona's decade-long inability to post consecutive winning seasons. Coach Brent Brennan kept his coordinators (Seth Doege and Danny Gonzales) and his quarterback (Noah Fifita). Also, the math is favorable: If the Wildcats sweep a modest lineup of non-conference opponents, they only would need five Big 12 wins to hit the Over. That's well within the range of reasonable outcomes.

Arizona State

FanDuel total: 6.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: The total makes sense in that ASU will likely have a loss (at Texas A&M) before conference play begins. Otherwise, it's an affront to Kenny Dillingham, whose team does not play Utah or Houston. If the Sun Devils sweep their seven home and neutral-site games, they hit the Over. That's not nearly as daunting as it sounds with Morgan State, Baylor, Hawaii, Kansas State, Colorado and Oklahoma State visiting Tempe, plus a game against Kansas in London.

Baylor

FanDuel total: 6.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: The Bears have been a program on the brink for three years — or, rather, Dave Aranda has been a coach on the hot seat for three years. And this season is no different after Baylor failed to reach the postseason in 2025. The start is tough (against Auburn in Atlanta), and the finish is a triple-whammy of woe: at BYU, vs. Texas Tech, at Houston. We don't see seven wins in the remaining eight games.

BYU

FanDuel total: 8.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: Our pick to win the Big 12 last winter and again in the spring is exceedingly well positioned for both the conference title and the Over. (Admittedly, the presence of Notre Dame on the schedule makes the math a tad trickier.) Cohesion along the offensive line, and between the line and quarterback, is increasingly rare in the transfer portal era. The Cougars have it in both areas, plus a first-rate secondary, established culture and sixth sense for making big plays under pressure.

Cincinnati

FanDuel total: 5.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: Scott Satterfield and Co. better rack up victories early, because the back half of the schedule is just this side of brutal with Texas Tech (home), Utah (home), BYU (road) and Houston (road). Add major questions on defense and a new quarterback, JC French (from Georgia Southern), and there are too many potholes for the Bearcats to build on last year's success.

Colorado

FanDuel total: 4.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: For those so inclined, there is a reasonable case to make for a rebound in Boulder. The Hotline, however, is not inclined — not with two non-conference road games against Power Four opponents (Georgia Tech and Northwestern), plus a difficult October (Texas Tech, Utah and Oklahoma State) that could leave the Buffaloes beaten and demoralized before the final month arrives.

Houston

FanDuel total: 8.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: The Cougars warrant inclusion on the short list of preseason favorites, along with BYU and Texas Tech. Third-year coach Willie Fritz has a system in place and a load of returnees on both sides of scrimmage, including veteran quarterback Conner Weigman. The Week 3 trip to Lubbock will be telling (for both teams), as will Houston's October visit to Utah. But the Cougars should be favored in every other game.

Iowa State

FanDuel total: 4.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: We spent 1.7 seconds pondering the Over/Under projection for Iowa State in the first year of the Jimmy Rogers era. That's not a vote of no confidence in Rogers specifically but, rather, a reflection of the gutted roster, uncertain quarterback situation and rugged schedule. Our hunch is the Cyclones lose at Iowa, BYU and Arizona, meaning they would need five wins in the remaining nine games to hit the Over. No chance.

Kansas

FanDuel total: 6.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: If you're surprised the total is that high for a program coming off back-to-back losing seasons, welcome aboard. The Jayhawks have a likely loss in non-conference play (Missouri), which is followed immediately by a trip to London to face Arizona State. If Lance Leipold manages to win seven games with only six home dates, the Big 12 Coach of the Year trophy just might follow.

Kansas State

FanDuel total: 8.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: Another total that left us perplexed ... until we eyed the schedule. No team benefits more from the Big 12 opponent rotation than the Wildcats, who miss Texas Tech, BYU and Utah. It's a welcome gift from the conference for new coach Collin Klein and a parting gift for senior quarterback Avery Johnson, who has one last chance to turn potential into production.

Oklahoma State

FanDuel total: 6.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: Considering the Hotline views Oklahoma State as the top sleeper pick in the Big 12 — a team that could contend for the conference title — we didn't hesitate to select the Over. With Oregon on the schedule, the Cowboys likely will need five victories in conference play to secure seven wins. That shouldn't be a problem. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who followed coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Stillwater, has a future in the NFL.

TCU

FanDuel total: 6.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: How much better is the Big 12 than the Ivy League? We're about to find out, courtesy of a fascinating experiment in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs lost quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana and replaced him with Jaden Craig, who carved up the Ivy League last season with Harvard. If Craig is comparably effective this fall, TCU should handle North Carolina in the opener (again) and roll to seven wins.

Texas Tech

FanDuel total: 10.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: The team everyone loves to hate enters 2026 with the highest win total in the Big 12 and designs on repeating as conference champions. The non-conference schedule is soft, and the Big 12 opponent rotation is favorable: The Red Raiders miss BYU and Utah and get both Arizona schools at home. But we wonder if the Brendan Sorsby affair — and other instances of extreme hubris in Lubbock — have rankled the football gods.

UCF

FanDuel total: 5.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: Year 2 of Tenure 2 for coach Scott Frost lacks the ingredients necessary for marked improvement. The Knights won five games last season and should be in that range again, largely due to a challenging early-season schedule. That said, our conviction with the Under is limited.

Utah

FanDuel total: 8.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: Why the skepticism? Our list starts at the top of Utah's org chart: We have no idea whether Morgan Scalley will be an elite head coach. Plenty of well-regarded coordinators have struggled upon moving into the corner office. Also, both lines of scrimmage must be retooled, the coordinators are new and the back half of the schedule is stout. But the key to Utah hitting the Over just might be the Week 2 home date with Arkansas. Lose, and the Utes will be hard-pressed to finish 9-3 or better.

West Virginia

FanDuel total: 5.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: Pardon the Hotline for not hopping on the RichRod train. In fact, all the optimism over Rich Rodriguez's second season in Morgantown is exactly why we have adopted a skeptical stance. The climb from four wins last year to six in 2026 is steeper than it seems.

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