Tropical depression forms in the Gulf, heads for Texas and Louisiana coasts

HOUSTON — Tropical Depression Five formed in the northern Gulf on Monday afternoon and is expected to strengthen ahead of landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border on Tuesday.

The depression has sustained winds of 35 mph and is located over 100 miles south of the Louisiana coast.

The short-fuse storm is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Edouard on Monday night, move inland near the Texas-Louisiana border on Tuesday afternoon and dissipate by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions – gusty winds and heavy rain – could begin as soon as Tuesday morning.

A tropical storm warning extends east from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion-Cameron Parish border in Louisiana.

Heavy rainfall is the biggest concern from the depression.

A Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall has been issued in southeast Texas, including Houston, for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The threat level could be raised in future updates.

Torrential rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will be more than enough to cause flash flooding, especially on roads. Storm rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected in most areas of southeast Texas, with 6 to 9 inches possible in limited spots.

Tropical storm-force wind gusts capable of causing spotty power outages are also possible along the coast from the storm's most intense bands of rain.

The system is small, which makes it more prone to abrupt changes in intensity, so forecasters are watching closely to see if it strengthens more than anticipated.

The risk of downed trees and power outages would increase for a small area where the storm's center moves inland if it were to strengthen.

El Niño is bossing hurricane season

Another short-lived storm fits with what the 2026 Atlantic season has delivered so far due to a strengthening and potentially record-breaking El Niño.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's activity is running just 11% of average as of August 30, according to one measure.

The most recent storm, Dolly, fell apart in the open Atlantic on August 28 after lasting just 24 hours. Cristobal disintegrated just as quickly in the northern Atlantic on August 13. The other two storms, Arthur and Bertha, had brief shelf lives in the Gulf in June and July, respectively.

The leftover showers and thunderstorms from former Tropical Storm Dolly are still tracking west toward the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, but their chance to redevelop into another tropical depression or storm is low.

The Atlantic season's first hurricane is nearly three weeks late compared to the average. It's the longest the Atlantic has gone without a hurricane since 2022, when Danielle formed on September 2.

The Atlantic's latest first hurricane happened on September 11, according to satellite-assisted records dating to 1966. Hurricanes Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013 hold a tie for that record.

September is the typical peak of Atlantic hurricane season thanks to a combination of more favorable weather ingredients.

The most basic building block is warmer water temperatures, which peak in September after basking in summer's heat, and provide fuel for storms to form and strengthen.

Lower wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, is the other big ingredient. Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can rip apart anything from budding tropical systems to fully developed hurricanes.

But this year's El Niño has made wind shear unusually strong and widespread in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. That has stifled storm chances and ripped apart storms like Dolly.

It's also the main reason forecasters have called for a muted season overall.

But that's no reason to ignore the rest of hurricane season completely. Storms can still find windows of opportunity to form and become a threat, even in an overall subdued season.

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