Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
Through 52 games, the NCAA Tournament has been largely devoid of drama. High seeds are dominating and blowouts are frequent. There has been one true buzzer-beater (Maryland over Colorado State).
But the viewing experience could change Thursday at 4 p.m. when Brigham Young and Alabama take the court in Newark for what could be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament.
Especially if you find defense offensive.
Or plan to bet Over the point total (175.5).
Or want someone to honor the legacy of Loyola Marymount and Hank Gathers, who died 35 years ago this month.
More than any pair of combatants in the Sweet 16, the Cougars and Crimson Tide are poised to accommodate our desire for high scores and higher theatre.
Both teams have top-10 offenses (as measured by points per possession).
Both possess elite point guards (BYU's Egor Demin and Alabama's Mark Sears).
Both have multiple players shooting better than 40 percent from 3-point range.
And crucially, neither is elite defensively.
That said, their methods are different.
Alabama uses tempo — relentless, unforgiving, exhausting tempo — as the fuel for averaging 90.8 points per game, tops in the nation.
While BYU plays fast, the scheme designed by first-year coach Kevin Young serves as the DNA for an attack that has exceeded 90 points on 10 occasions.
It should be 40 riveting minutes. If we're lucky, we might even get 45.
To the picks ...
First round: 7-2
Second round: 2-5
Total: 9-7
Five-star special: 1-1
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
Brigham Young (+5.5) over Alabama (Newark)
Tipoff: Thursday at 4:09 p.m. on CBS
Comment: The outcome hinges on how well BYU handles the tempo and pressure across 40 frenetic minutes. If the Cougars limit turnovers and run their offense effectively, the Elite Eight awaits. If they get frazzled, then defeat is sure to follow. Which means the pressure is on Demin, the freshman point guard with an NBA future. Either way, that's far too many points.
Arizona (+9.5) over Duke (Newark)
Tipoff: Thursday at 6:39 p.m. on CBS
Comment: If the Wildcats replicate all the mental mistakes they made against Oregon, this won't be close — Duke is exponentially better than the Ducks. Cooper Flagg receives the bulk of the attention, and for good reason, but the Blue Devils have two other starters projected for the lottery portion of the NBA Draft in guard Kon Kneuppel and big man Khaman Maluach.
And yet, their top scorer in the obliteration of Baylor last weekend was a fourth player, guard Tyrese Proctor. The Wildcats have a narrow path to victory, and it requires a spectacular performance from guard Caleb Love, who will be facing Duke for the 10th time in his career. The previous nine have produced mixed results, including a loss in Tucson earlier this season. Bottom line: We would rather take 9.5 than give 9.5.
Mississippi (+2.5) over Michigan State
Tipoff: Friday at 4:09 p.m. on CBS
Comment: First team to 60 wins, and that team could very well be the sixth-seeded Rebels, who are nearly Michigan State's equal defensively and no worse offensively. The Spartans are more about the sum than the parts, which is typical of Tom Izzo's teams but a risky existence at this point in the tournament. In a close game with two minutes left, the player most likely to produce a dagger is Mississippi guard Sean Pedulla.
Michigan (+8.5) over Auburn (Atlanta)
Tipoff: Friday at 6:39 p.m. on CBS
Comment: No team plays more close games than the Wolverines, and we see no reason to expect this matchup to be any different. Auburn was awarded the tournament's No. 1 overall seed based on its season-long body of work, not its performance down the stretch. In recent weeks, Michigan, which won the Big Ten tournament, has been just as impressive.
Houston (-8.5) over Purdue (Indianapolis)
Tipoff: Friday at 7:09 p.m. on TBS/truTV
Comment: For all the focus on Houston's seemingly unfair placement in a regional (Indianapolis) that's just 60 miles from Purdue's campus, it's worth noting that the Cougars were undefeated on the road in Big 12 play. If anything, the hostile setting will bring out the best in the top seed. And their suffocating defensive pressure will overwhelm the Boilermakers.
Straight-up winners: BYU, Duke, Mississippi, Michigan and Houston
Five-star special: Houston. The Cougars had their close call in the second round (against Gonzaga). We expect them to blast Purdue and roll through the regional.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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